A peek behind the curtain...

It is only 0500 on 2 May 2011 and I have already received a number of emails and calls asking me to comment on the operation that resulted in the death of Usama bin Laden (UBL.)

While it is early days in the wake of the assault, and I know nothing more about it than we are all seeing on TV, I do know enough about the area and the intelligence/tactical military requirements involved in an attack like this (having been involved in similar situations) to be able to make some comments on the intelligence aspects of the assault – which I respectfully offer for your background information.

First … this was one hell of an intelligence job by the CIA Station in Pakistan and supporting CIA elements elsewhere in the world. Without such intelligence the attack could not possibly have been mounted. You may be sure that the President would never repeat never have authorized the assault without demanding – and receiving – a virtual “guarantee” from CIA that UBL WAS at the target location; and that CIA could provide sufficient on-the-ground current intelligence in the period leading up to the assault so that our assault team would have NO adverse “surprises.”

NO military assault of this sort could possibly be mounted without having extraordinarily good intelligence. The risks of a) attacking the “wrong” target (i.e., it was NOT one of UBL’s hang-outs); and of b) attacking an “empty” target (i.e., it was a valid location, but UBL was not there at the time of the assault); are enormous.

Consider: the following are just some of the adverse consequences if either of the above had been the case:

>> We would have risked the lives of our assault team for nothing, since “forts” such as this in Pakistan are always inhabited by heavily armed defenders, no matter whether they are associated with UBL or not, and they would have fought back with vigor.

>> The sheer embarrassment resulting from our attacking an invalid target would have been crushing, domestically and around the world, and, fairly or not, made the US the laughing stock of much of the world.

>> Anti-US blow-back in Pakistan would have been huge: probably resulting in our being kicked out of the country, with enormous negative consequences.

>> Al Quaeda and all the other anti-US terrorist organizations around the world would have received a tremendous morale boost.

We can safely assume the following: Once focused on the possibility that the target “compound” was a UBL refuge, CIA would have had to do the following:

>> Mount unilateral visual surveillance on the compound (meaning surveillance by CIA people only - NOT Pakistanis, since the presumption is that no Pakistani, either from the Pak military or the Pak intelligence services, could be considered to be absolutely and sufficiently reliable.) Such surveillance would of necessity involved 24 hour “eyes-on” observation of the compound. The objectives of such surveillance would be to (1) verify that the compound was used by UBL; (2) establish that we could tell with a very high degree of certainty when UBL was in the compound; (3) ascertain as much as possible about the strength of the force defending UBL in the compound, including what sort of armament was in their possession; and (4) determine the best time to actually strike the compound in terms of guard shifts and locations, and activity inside the compound.

>> Mount “technical coverage” of the compound: this would involve scanning for radio signals coming from the compound; taking photographs of the exterior of the compound; and arranging for aerial photographic coverage of the compound.

>> Develop a scale model of the interior of the compound to be used by the assault force in planning its movements and actions once it landed inside the compound. The SEALs had to know the layout of the compound intimately, so that advance assignments could be made for individual SEALs: which SEALs were to attack guards - and where; which SEALs would search for Bin Laden - and where, etc.

>> Once the above requirements were met, and an assault was planned, CIA would be tasked to provide intensive 24 hour real-time visual coverage – again by CIA officers, not Pakistanis - of the compound in the last days and hours before the raid was mounted, and probably to assist in "bringing in" the SEAL helicopters This would involve deploying CIA officers familiar with the target and equipped with satellite communications which kept them in direct contact with the Station, Headquarters, the appropriate US military command in Afghanistan , US military commanders in Pakistan ,and the SEAL strike force. Note: this would, I suspect, include real-time video coverage.

>> I also assume that CIA officers, perhaps shepherding a few SEALs, were in the immediate vicinity of the compound, “illuminating” it with laser and/or infra-red to assist the helicopters bringing in the SEAL assault team: there could be no last minute confusion on the part of the helicopter pilots as to where the target was located.

The point of this absolutely crucial last-minute coverage would be to:

>> Ensure UBL was in the compound when the assault team arrived.

>> Watch for any possible reinforcement of the guard force; and/or changes in guard deployment in the compound.

The key thing as regards all the above is that it had to be accomplished without tipping off the occupants of the compound, the many “locals” who live in the immediate area, and, I assume, Pak intelligence. The practical difficulty of doing this is enormous. The compound is smack in the middle of an urban area which is also a major Pakistan Army military base. The degree of professionalism – operational tradecraft and technical skills - needed by the CIA officers responsible for conducting the operation while remaining undetected by both “friend” and foe cannot be overstated.

Without all of the above requirements/actions having been met, the assault would not have been launched. The fact that it succeeded, apparently in textbook manner, is a real credit to CIA's Clandestine Service officers.

And, of course, to the SEALs, who clearly carried out their complex and dangerous mission with unmatched bravery and skill.

Bless them all.

And … thanks, guys. You have given us all a real shot in the arm. We are proud of you, and glad you were on deck and come home safe.