After a long absence (Mien Gott! Has it been that long?), in the immortal words of Gen. MacArthur, I have returned. For a short visit.
A tragedy has occurred on Fort Hood, one of the busiest military bases in the United States. A base that has experienced the highest number of casualties in the War onTerror...Islamist Extremism...Insanity.
Information remains sketchy. They are putting together a profile of the gunman.
As the Armorer would have warned me long ago, until all information is in we cannot make any definite claims. Everything is speculation. Thus, the question mark on the title and a pre-emptive warning that everything past this point is, in fact, speculation .
We have to wait until the evidence is in and any interviews are completed to draw any firm conclusions on motive, whatever public affairs or any news outlet is intimating at this moment. Even if it turns out that Maj. Hasan was radicalized and committed the attack due to ideology, it doesn't mean that there is a general conspiracy or radicalization amongst Muslim soldiers. I don't have tell you that thousands of Muslims serve faithfully and honorably, risking their lives and sometimes giving them, to protect the United States and its citizens.
In fact, if you are reading at this site, any such commentary or warning is superfluous. Beyond that, falling into some paranoid panic, to quote a cliche, is exactly what the terrorists would like.
It really would not be a surprise if it turns out that Maj. Hasan was radicalized sometime in the last eight years and committed the attack based on ideology. Not because we know anything about Maj. Hasan, but because the location, target and religion of the person committing the act is an excellent and long sought after project of Islamic terrorists.
In the last eight years, several military personnel have been either radicalized post enlistment or had other issues with the military and sought out Islamist organizations to provide services to harm the military or the United States. Most of those have been providing sensitive information to the enemy. Few reported have resulted directly in death or physical injury.
Several failed attacks on state side military bases have been planned and undertaken by outside cells with few resources and an inability to infiltrate the confines of the base. Such as the failed attack on Fort Dix and the Naval Weapons Station in South Carolina. The Fort Dix attackers all but wore placards announcing their intentions and were quickly infiltrated. Vigilance, sheer luck may have played an equal part to lack of planning in the apprehension of the South Carolina attackers.
However, such an attack on other soldiers, by Muslim soldiers, on a state side base was probably one of the many dreamed about scenarios by any number of Islamist organizations for years. Because, for years, Muslims of every background have either donned a uniform or provided direct and indirect services (translations, diplomatic posts, etc). Such service provides us with a necessary and very effective tool in combating Islamist terrorists around the world, here at home and on the numerous battle fields we operate on today.
As with all terrorist attacks, the ability of individuals or even groups to cause significant harm is based on the resources and time to plan. As with all terrorist attacks where resources and time to plan are limited, the number of victims and damage caused is not the primary reason for the attack. They cannot hope to defeat the United States with an individual attack or turn the battle significantly with a single event. It is always about the media and public opinion.
It is always about the psychology. Chipping away at the unity of the nation and its allies. The messages are multiple and simple:
They are still out there and still capable of attacking us even where we should be most secure on a military base filled with soldiers trained to protect us. They have not been defeated.
As always, such an attack is meant to drive a wedge between Muslims and non-Muslims within our country. Because translators, diplomats and even cultural experts are necessary to the military mission and thousands of Muslim soldiers serve in our military today, their biggest desire is to create fear and distrust in non-Muslim soldiers for those serving next to them. On top of the fact that they have to fear that every anonymous Muslim citizen of whatever country they are deployed to is a possible enemy.
Finally, as with most attacks, there is always the psychological message to the Muslim community here and abroad. They hope that it will serve as a recruiting tool. An example for others to follow. At the very least, convince a few more Muslims that their ideology cannot be defeated. If they won't join the Islamists, they should stay to the side. Fear and paranoia within the Muslim community against those they live with and work with is a much sought after weapon. One that has been fading after years without an effective attack on US soil, but still tenaciously hangs on.
Whether Maj. Hasan was radicalized and committed the attack based on ideology is yet to be proved. Even if it is proved, whether the attack was part of a greater plan by an organization will still be in question.
As with many attacks over the last eight years, particularly the last five, many of those involved have been individuals or small groups who practically radicalize themselves and come up with their own plan. It certainly wouldn't take a genius or a group of planners to realize the effect of such an attack as that perpetrated on Fort Hood.
The main goal of Islamist organizations, particularly on the net, is to radicalize individuals. Due to the net, they do not require groups to congregate or cells to defer back to a set plan by individuals or groups higher up the chain of command or directly related to any recognized organization.
Decentralization and individual empowerment are now their favorite and most effective tools. It requires only the money necessary to set up, manage and occasionally upgrade a website. Unlike the 9/11 hijackers who had to be supported and provided money for operational necessities like flying lessons, car rentals, apartment rent and plane tickets or groups of foot soldiers in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and various hot spots that require support, weapons and leadership.
Larger organizations do not necessarily provide the sole monetary and material support for these groups, but there are always indirect and fringe costs. Such as providing experts, liaisons and training facilities. Not to mention the cost of reaching out to individuals or groups through media or even direct financial payment.
Individuals who provide their own plans and resources are the cheapest method. If they fail, it has little impact on any organization or the over all Islamist ideology. They are simply foot soldiers who did or did not accomplish their goals. Their failure does not reflect poorly on on an organization or the ideology or its leaders.
Even their failure, made public, is seen as a positive public affairs, showing the reach of the ideology and the dedication of its believers. Bad publicity is almost as good as good publicity in these cases.
If individuals succeed, organizations and the ideology get a public boost. At no cost. In fact, we should expect that radical Islamist sites are currently posting numerous praises for Major Hasan without any confirmation that his attack was indeed due to ideology. We should also expect that some known organizations will release statements praising the attack and, just as possible, taking credit for them.
Even if Maj. Hasan did not commit the attack based on ideology or any plan to commit terrorist attacks they will still stake some claim to it based solely on the already released reports speculating the same.
Where does it leave us? The same place we have always been; vigilant, but resisting paranoia and prejudice. Continuing the long war, however much we may wish it was over or the general population would like to forget it exists.
Now to the argument of prejudice in any assumption on my part that this is indeed at least the act of a radicalized individual acting on his ideology. It was my first reaction based on a news flash with little evidence and led to a very public argument to that effect at an Olive Garden. While I was proved correct that the individual was Muslim, there was little empirical evidence to support that assumption. My argument in support of my guess was that it is an expected scenario, something that had been previously discussed amongst those who pay attention.
The number of victims also seemed above and beyond the number usually associated with individuals who suffer a psychotic break. That they usually have a specific set of victims that they blame for their situation and the number is most often limited regardless of the more publicized massacres such as Virginia Tech or the Luby's Cafeteria in Texas.
The fact is, Maj. Hasan may have had specific beliefs about the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and our dealings with the Isreali-Palestine issue, but his attack may have been the result of a psychotic break. His ability to injure so many may simply have been the result of having certain weapons and an abundance of available ammunition. Unlike Hsu and VT who had to rely on semi-automatic pistols and the amount of ammunition he could carry in his jacket.
Then again, based on some knowledge of security measures on military bases, the issuing of live ammunition and its availability, the fact that the Major was a psychologist and not likely to be assigned to a guard post, it seems that he would have had to plan this event in advance in order to have enough ammunition to kill 12 and wound 31 as well as have a short gun battle with authorities.
According to current reports, its possible that some victims were victims of 'friendly fire' during the shoot out. Still, that is at least three to five magazines of fifteen rounds each for an M-16 (my guess at the suspected weapon). Possibly more.
Where did the Major get that amount of live ammunition? Even on a military base? Did he buy it privately at any gun shop? Why?
Whatever the reasons for my speculation, it is likely that, no matter what is discovered about Maj. Hasan's motives for the attack, based on current reports, a large portion of the US citizenry and around the world are already convinced that this was a terrorist attack by a Muslim. Prejudices have been reconfirmed and paranoia amongst both the the Muslim and non-Muslim populations have been tweaked.
On top of that, it had temporarily erased any front page reports of Pakistan's military push into tribal territories and the capture or destruction of important terrorist terrain. The only thing it couldn't push off the news was the release of 'desperate Lindsay Lohan' tapes by her father and the recovery of the missing 7 month old baby stolen by its baby sitter and hidden in a box under her bed.
In the end, its a win for Islamists. How small will be based on our reactions. In comparison to the destruction that has been wrought upon such organizations as Al Qaeda by the decimation of training camps and the death of numerous leaders, it is a very small victory with little effect on the over all war.
Whatever they have accomplished, whatever death and destruction they have wrought, the fact that Lindsay Lohan still makes the news is testament to the fact that they have never and will never change this nation. Some may think that is the worst and shallowest example of our culture and society, but lets face it, however decadent and promiscuous they believe our society to be, a tyrannical and blood thirsty ideology can never defeat a free people.
Remember that the next time somebody reports about Tom and Kate or Jon and Kate plus eight plus his mistress. You're still free to watch it or turn the channel. I am still free to eat at Olive Gardens and cause a public scene. The simplest of things, the greatest of meanings.
Paid for on Tuesday, November 5th by the soldiers and families of Fort Hood and untold millions, in and out of uniform, of every race, of every color, of every creed, every day for over two hundred and thirty three years.
(Yeah...I know...long. Whatever. Miss you. Don't know when I'll be able to return.)
A tragedy has occurred on Fort Hood, one of the busiest military bases in the United States. A base that has experienced the highest number of casualties in the War on
Information remains sketchy. They are putting together a profile of the gunman.
As the Armorer would have warned me long ago, until all information is in we cannot make any definite claims. Everything is speculation. Thus, the question mark on the title and a pre-emptive warning that everything past this point is, in fact, speculation .
We have to wait until the evidence is in and any interviews are completed to draw any firm conclusions on motive, whatever public affairs or any news outlet is intimating at this moment. Even if it turns out that Maj. Hasan was radicalized and committed the attack due to ideology, it doesn't mean that there is a general conspiracy or radicalization amongst Muslim soldiers. I don't have tell you that thousands of Muslims serve faithfully and honorably, risking their lives and sometimes giving them, to protect the United States and its citizens.
In fact, if you are reading at this site, any such commentary or warning is superfluous. Beyond that, falling into some paranoid panic, to quote a cliche, is exactly what the terrorists would like.
It really would not be a surprise if it turns out that Maj. Hasan was radicalized sometime in the last eight years and committed the attack based on ideology. Not because we know anything about Maj. Hasan, but because the location, target and religion of the person committing the act is an excellent and long sought after project of Islamic terrorists.
In the last eight years, several military personnel have been either radicalized post enlistment or had other issues with the military and sought out Islamist organizations to provide services to harm the military or the United States. Most of those have been providing sensitive information to the enemy. Few reported have resulted directly in death or physical injury.
Several failed attacks on state side military bases have been planned and undertaken by outside cells with few resources and an inability to infiltrate the confines of the base. Such as the failed attack on Fort Dix and the Naval Weapons Station in South Carolina. The Fort Dix attackers all but wore placards announcing their intentions and were quickly infiltrated. Vigilance, sheer luck may have played an equal part to lack of planning in the apprehension of the South Carolina attackers.
However, such an attack on other soldiers, by Muslim soldiers, on a state side base was probably one of the many dreamed about scenarios by any number of Islamist organizations for years. Because, for years, Muslims of every background have either donned a uniform or provided direct and indirect services (translations, diplomatic posts, etc). Such service provides us with a necessary and very effective tool in combating Islamist terrorists around the world, here at home and on the numerous battle fields we operate on today.
As with all terrorist attacks, the ability of individuals or even groups to cause significant harm is based on the resources and time to plan. As with all terrorist attacks where resources and time to plan are limited, the number of victims and damage caused is not the primary reason for the attack. They cannot hope to defeat the United States with an individual attack or turn the battle significantly with a single event. It is always about the media and public opinion.
It is always about the psychology. Chipping away at the unity of the nation and its allies. The messages are multiple and simple:
They are still out there and still capable of attacking us even where we should be most secure on a military base filled with soldiers trained to protect us. They have not been defeated.
As always, such an attack is meant to drive a wedge between Muslims and non-Muslims within our country. Because translators, diplomats and even cultural experts are necessary to the military mission and thousands of Muslim soldiers serve in our military today, their biggest desire is to create fear and distrust in non-Muslim soldiers for those serving next to them. On top of the fact that they have to fear that every anonymous Muslim citizen of whatever country they are deployed to is a possible enemy.
Finally, as with most attacks, there is always the psychological message to the Muslim community here and abroad. They hope that it will serve as a recruiting tool. An example for others to follow. At the very least, convince a few more Muslims that their ideology cannot be defeated. If they won't join the Islamists, they should stay to the side. Fear and paranoia within the Muslim community against those they live with and work with is a much sought after weapon. One that has been fading after years without an effective attack on US soil, but still tenaciously hangs on.
Whether Maj. Hasan was radicalized and committed the attack based on ideology is yet to be proved. Even if it is proved, whether the attack was part of a greater plan by an organization will still be in question.
As with many attacks over the last eight years, particularly the last five, many of those involved have been individuals or small groups who practically radicalize themselves and come up with their own plan. It certainly wouldn't take a genius or a group of planners to realize the effect of such an attack as that perpetrated on Fort Hood.
The main goal of Islamist organizations, particularly on the net, is to radicalize individuals. Due to the net, they do not require groups to congregate or cells to defer back to a set plan by individuals or groups higher up the chain of command or directly related to any recognized organization.
Decentralization and individual empowerment are now their favorite and most effective tools. It requires only the money necessary to set up, manage and occasionally upgrade a website. Unlike the 9/11 hijackers who had to be supported and provided money for operational necessities like flying lessons, car rentals, apartment rent and plane tickets or groups of foot soldiers in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and various hot spots that require support, weapons and leadership.
Larger organizations do not necessarily provide the sole monetary and material support for these groups, but there are always indirect and fringe costs. Such as providing experts, liaisons and training facilities. Not to mention the cost of reaching out to individuals or groups through media or even direct financial payment.
Individuals who provide their own plans and resources are the cheapest method. If they fail, it has little impact on any organization or the over all Islamist ideology. They are simply foot soldiers who did or did not accomplish their goals. Their failure does not reflect poorly on on an organization or the ideology or its leaders.
Even their failure, made public, is seen as a positive public affairs, showing the reach of the ideology and the dedication of its believers. Bad publicity is almost as good as good publicity in these cases.
If individuals succeed, organizations and the ideology get a public boost. At no cost. In fact, we should expect that radical Islamist sites are currently posting numerous praises for Major Hasan without any confirmation that his attack was indeed due to ideology. We should also expect that some known organizations will release statements praising the attack and, just as possible, taking credit for them.
Even if Maj. Hasan did not commit the attack based on ideology or any plan to commit terrorist attacks they will still stake some claim to it based solely on the already released reports speculating the same.
Where does it leave us? The same place we have always been; vigilant, but resisting paranoia and prejudice. Continuing the long war, however much we may wish it was over or the general population would like to forget it exists.
Now to the argument of prejudice in any assumption on my part that this is indeed at least the act of a radicalized individual acting on his ideology. It was my first reaction based on a news flash with little evidence and led to a very public argument to that effect at an Olive Garden. While I was proved correct that the individual was Muslim, there was little empirical evidence to support that assumption. My argument in support of my guess was that it is an expected scenario, something that had been previously discussed amongst those who pay attention.
The number of victims also seemed above and beyond the number usually associated with individuals who suffer a psychotic break. That they usually have a specific set of victims that they blame for their situation and the number is most often limited regardless of the more publicized massacres such as Virginia Tech or the Luby's Cafeteria in Texas.
The fact is, Maj. Hasan may have had specific beliefs about the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and our dealings with the Isreali-Palestine issue, but his attack may have been the result of a psychotic break. His ability to injure so many may simply have been the result of having certain weapons and an abundance of available ammunition. Unlike Hsu and VT who had to rely on semi-automatic pistols and the amount of ammunition he could carry in his jacket.
Then again, based on some knowledge of security measures on military bases, the issuing of live ammunition and its availability, the fact that the Major was a psychologist and not likely to be assigned to a guard post, it seems that he would have had to plan this event in advance in order to have enough ammunition to kill 12 and wound 31 as well as have a short gun battle with authorities.
According to current reports, its possible that some victims were victims of 'friendly fire' during the shoot out. Still, that is at least three to five magazines of fifteen rounds each for an M-16 (my guess at the suspected weapon). Possibly more.
Where did the Major get that amount of live ammunition? Even on a military base? Did he buy it privately at any gun shop? Why?
Whatever the reasons for my speculation, it is likely that, no matter what is discovered about Maj. Hasan's motives for the attack, based on current reports, a large portion of the US citizenry and around the world are already convinced that this was a terrorist attack by a Muslim. Prejudices have been reconfirmed and paranoia amongst both the the Muslim and non-Muslim populations have been tweaked.
On top of that, it had temporarily erased any front page reports of Pakistan's military push into tribal territories and the capture or destruction of important terrorist terrain. The only thing it couldn't push off the news was the release of 'desperate Lindsay Lohan' tapes by her father and the recovery of the missing 7 month old baby stolen by its baby sitter and hidden in a box under her bed.
In the end, its a win for Islamists. How small will be based on our reactions. In comparison to the destruction that has been wrought upon such organizations as Al Qaeda by the decimation of training camps and the death of numerous leaders, it is a very small victory with little effect on the over all war.
Whatever they have accomplished, whatever death and destruction they have wrought, the fact that Lindsay Lohan still makes the news is testament to the fact that they have never and will never change this nation. Some may think that is the worst and shallowest example of our culture and society, but lets face it, however decadent and promiscuous they believe our society to be, a tyrannical and blood thirsty ideology can never defeat a free people.
Remember that the next time somebody reports about Tom and Kate or Jon and Kate plus eight plus his mistress. You're still free to watch it or turn the channel. I am still free to eat at Olive Gardens and cause a public scene. The simplest of things, the greatest of meanings.
Paid for on Tuesday, November 5th by the soldiers and families of Fort Hood and untold millions, in and out of uniform, of every race, of every color, of every creed, every day for over two hundred and thirty three years.
(Yeah...I know...long. Whatever. Miss you. Don't know when I'll be able to return.)
*Ahem*
The site owner requires a personnel update, via email please.
Geez. This is like Walter Cronkite just walking in and taking the news desk after having been gone for over a year...
Clearly, I forgot to change the locks...
;^ )
Who knows how much psychological carnage he left in his wake just from that.
Some people have to blame their problems on the rest of the world, and that kind of thinking makes it easy.