To say that the appearance of General Petraeus was not the highlight of the day is to give you some sense of how extraordinary were the day's other events, but I'll start with Petraeus. His time took the form of a brief statement, and then questions and answers moderated by Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution. This isn't my best writing, but I wanted to get it out there ASAP...
The little theatre where we gathered was packed wall-to-wall, with people lining the back and sitting on the stairs along each side (I was lucky enough to get a seat near the center, only a few rows back). The general sat down next to a table set with a pitcher of ice water and two glasses, but carefully placed an "Airborne!" coffee cup on the table and later drew our attention to it. In person he is as quietly confident but unassuming as people say, his demeanor certainly not typical of many general officers out there who carry themselves with a great deal more weight and importance.
Petraeus was introduced by the student commander of the Naval Academy Brigade of Midshipmen, a former enlisted Marine. The young man was obviously nervous, but cheeky enough to comment on what a shame it was that Petraeus (a West Point graduate) was scheduled to be in
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| West Point graduate General Petraeus laughs as he listens to the Naval Academy Midshipman introducing him joke about Navy Football's expected win over Army in December. Petraeus later took the upperhand with some teasing of his own. [click to enlarge] |
The president of the American Veterans Certer again took the podium to say that he had been somewhat surprised by the "cheeky comments" of the Midshipman, but quickly added, "Though maybe the general likes audacity in young military officers..."
"We do," replied Petraeus as he stood up from his chair with a grin on his face. "And I have something for him!" He made a play of discussing how amazing and odd it was that his staff had come into possession of a nameplate from somebody's dorm room door after a recent visit to Annapolis. He walked over to the Midshipman and showed that it was the young man's nameplate, much to the amusement of the audience and the surprise of the Midshipman.
"So odd," said the General again as he walked back to the center of the room. "It seems to have writing on the back." He read the words, which congratulated the Midshipman on his leadership position and commended his service in Iraq as an enlisted Marine before he attended the academy. The inscription ended with, "Semper Fi... Go Army!" The joke brought down the house.
Then it was on to more serious matters...
Petraeus started off by commenting on the title of the conference: "From the Greatest Generation to the Latest Generation." He told of how Tom Brokaw (who coined the phrase "Greatest Generation") had visited in Iraq when Petraeus was commanding the 101st Airborne. After observing the great work the 101st was doing, Brokaw yelled into Petraeus' ear just as he got on the helicopter to depart, "That WWII generation may have been the 'Greatest Generation,' but this is the new Greatest Generation." Petraeus went on to humbly submit for consideration a new name for the conference: "From the greatest generation to the new greatest generation." His pride in the soldiers he leads was obvious.
O'Hanlon started with a question about what Petraeus considered the key to success in Iraq and when did he feel that? Petraeus half-joked that he knew they were making progress when O'Hanlon published an op-ed in 2007 that acknowledged progress, but went on to say that in late spring and early summer of 2007, the sectarian violence fell precipitously, which proved counter-insurgency strategies had been working. He said the key to success in Iraq was that it wasn't just a surge of troops in early 2007, it was "a surge of ideas as much as a surge of forces." Having enough troops enabled the concepts to be carried out.
General Petraeus went on to an overview of COIN theory and acknowledged that it was "a risky approach, but necessary." He said that some have claimed, "You got lucky," but then that well-known smile popped up again and he said with satisfaction and a bit of sharpness, "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity--we were prepared for reconciliation [the Sunni Awakening]" and so were able to take advantage of the opportunity it presented.
On the subject of Iraq today, Petraeus said that the level of violence is serious, but not enough to interfere with redevelopment and reconstruction. He said there has been a 90% reduction in attacks and deaths (both civilian and military) since the heights of 2007 and pointed to some slides that showed it with startling clarity. He cautioned that his "bumpersticker" from congressional testimony still applies, though: "Substantial Progress; Fragile and Reversible." He added that there are still "Al Qaeda elements and extremist elements directed by Iran and lying low" who "might be--and should be--reckoned with at one point," but "it's really about poltiics now." Petraeus believes that the Iraqi constitution "got it right because it requires crossing sectarian lines," which demands agreement and accommodation. "Iraq has enormous potential and blessings," he said as he ticked off their natural, cultural and geographical resources. "They just need to work together to enjoy the fruits."
O'Hanlon asked about disagreements between McChrystal and Ambassador Eikenberry, and the pace of Obama's decision-making. Petraeus said that the strategy decision had been "quite fast" back in March and that Obama was dealing with a lot of major issues at the time. He thought that process had been very good, but now Obama had more time to immerse himself in the issue of Afghanistan and so was getting more in-depth. He reported that he's had eight one-on-one meetings with Obama, plus regular Secretary-level and deputy-level meetings. He said Obama had devoted an average of 2.5 hours per session in the discussions and they expected a decision soon.
He said this was a "very good debate and very good discussion." He compared it to graduate-school-level intellectual discourse. " It does sharpen your thinking" and challenges assumptions, forces re-examination of objectives, etc. "The discussions are at a very good and very sharp level." He was so positive about it that I was honestly taken aback and left wondering whether or not he shared the concerns of those who have said that Obama's extended re-examination of strategy and troop levels has endangered the mission and will lead to higher casualties. My final conclusion after listening to the entire presentation was that he was an even better politician than I had previously thought.
O'Hanlon asked, "How do you view it? What are the odds of success in Afghanistan?" Petraeus replied that "The question was the issue of the two clocks," as it had been when he took command in Iraq: "Was the Washington clock going to run out before the Baghdad clock started moving? We used to joke that the Washington/Capitol Hill clock was racing forward (you could almost see the alarm about to pop up), and on the other hand with the Baghad clock you sort of hit it a couple times a day to see if it was still working and wonder if it was moving backward." The audience laughed, but he was very serious about the pressure he knew was on the team in Iraq in 2007.
In applying the metaphor of the two clocks to Afghanistan, Petraeus talked about counter-insurgency theory and how important it was to have what he called a "granular level" of understanding about the culture, power structure, etc., of each small area in order to prepare for success. He said the goal is to prevent Al Qaeda from re-establishing itself in Afghanistan, but in a way that "doesn't trap us in an endless nation-building exercise," and still enables Afghanis to have a functional and successful country. He mentioned that "levels of corruption are unacceptable" and "good governance must be developed." He acknowledged how much has been learned about COIN and irregular warfare from Iraq and earlier Afghanistan experiences, so "the key is to find the right answer" to apply to each village, district and province of Afghanistan so that security can be the foundation of building that good governance.
On Pakistan, Petraeus' bumpersticker phrase is, "Heartening, but tough." He said that several times, emphasizing the heartening part. He reports finding a great deal of encouragement in the shift of popular opinion in Pakistan, as almost all seem to oppose the interal extremists, "seeing them as the most-pressing danger to the Pakistan state." He also noted that the most recent Pakistani Army incursions into the Swat Valley were of the "clear and hold" type, showing that the Pakistanis recognize it will take years to rebuild and then re-transition to local governance there. He was also pleased by the recent efforts of the Pakistanis against what he called the "Massoud tribal elements...They've gone after them in a very determined way." He listed all the challenges the the Pakistani forces face in terms of culture, terrain, capability, etc., but quickly added that the operation "has gone quite well, frankly." His genuine enthusiasm and encouragement on the topic were notable. He sobered as he said that he fully expects there to be a vicious backlash as the terrorist elements respond to the recent offensives, but he believes it will help the Pakistanis even more clearly see their "indiscriminate violence and oppressive tactics" and thus turn even harder against the extremists.
I'm not sure exactly why, but there was a particular intensity and enthusiasm to his discussion of Pakistan, as if he had perhaps had a very recent briefing or strategizing session on it. Regardless of his honest assessment of the challenges and future violence he sees Pakistan contending with, he does seem genuinely "encouraged," as he said.
A West Point Cadet was the first audience member to pose a question for the general. He referenced the debate about using drones for what he called "strategic purposes" in Pakistan, targeting individual "high-value" terrorists. He said that this was an issue because it increased civilian deaths, and mentioned that David Kilcullen and Andrew Exum have called for a moratorium because of this. Petraeus said he firmly believed drones had an important role to play and strongly challenged the idea that civilian casualties increased with the use of Predators and similar drones; he reiterated that assertion several times. In terms of Pakistan, he played cute, emphasizing that "from newspaper accounts I've read," it seems the civilian deaths are going down and that surely "whoever in Pakistan is in charge of drone strikes is careful to hit the right targets." There was tittering in the audience as he spoke of it without speaking of it.
Petraeus went on to point out that "tactical victories can be strategic losses" if they come with civilian deaths, mentioning McChrystal's tighter rules of engagement as an example of that theory in practice. His last comment on the topic was that those who question the number of civilian casualties from Predator strikes "may want to note that there has not been Pakistani comment" because such actions are "not taken without host nation cooperation/approval."
There was a very odd moment when a woman who identified herself as a columnist regularly published in the Washington Times asked a somewhat incoherent question about whether there seemed to be a good "base of knowledge among people analyzing plans for Afghanistan," referencing COIN vs. Counter-terrorism, etc. In answering, Petraeus made a joking comment about there being "some field manual out there all about it..." As the crowd giggled, the columnist looked a bit confused and replied that she hadn't completely read McChrystal's discussion yet, but she was starting it. I hate to believe it, but I would swear she had no idea Petraeus was mentioning the counter-insurgency manual he wrote (Field Manual 3-24).
One of the young people in the audience asked General Petraeus to name his military heroes. The first he mentioned was his Command Sergeant Major, Marvin Hill, who served with him in the 101st, again when he commanded multi-rational forces in Iraq, and is with him now in his position as CENTCOM commander. The second hero he mentioned was a "one-eyed infantry officer" whose Officer Candidate School graduation he was soon going to attend. The man had convinced the army to allow him to stay in after he was wounded in Iraq, and he even went to Ranger school to prove he could fight (and successfully completed the course). He also referenced a veteran who had such severe TBI that it had been thought he would never speak, but with whom the General had recently gone running. I couldn't help but wonder if it was this man*, but Petraeus never mentioned a name.
His final choice of hero was rather personal. This was probably the most unguarded point in the interview, as Petraeus' sense of the burden and enormity of the challenge he faced in Iraq in 2007 came through. He talked about reading a biography of General Grant, "who went through terrible trials" as a commanding officer. Petraeus saw parallels in Grant's challenges and struggles to his own "bad days" in Iraq in early 2007 when things seemed so dark at times and the morning briefings were filled with awful news. He found Grant's strength and determination to never give up "inspirational." He obviously found a great deal of encouragement in recognizing that other commanding generals had gone through terrible times in war and then turned it all around.
Petraeus also mentioned a man he called his mentor, General Jack Galvin, former Supreme Allied Comander, Europe, to whom he'd once been an aide. "Expand your vision beyond the max-effective range of your M-16 rilfe," Galvin had said to the young Petraeus. It was quite a moment to then hear Petraeus say that Galvin was an example of the combination soldier, diplomat, and statesman "required these days," when it is Petraeus himself who is now held as that model in many circles.
Petraeus' discussion of "expanding your vision beyond the end of your rifle" reappeared in an emphatic encouragement of education. He said that education "preserves this country of initiative and innovation--education keeps it going" and "investments in education are critically important to the future of this country." He then addressed the young people and officers-in-training in the audience. "Do off-the-wall things and seek out-of-intellectual comfort zone experiences," he said. He explained that going to Princeton expanded his experience with debate and "people who think differently," and warned students at the military academies to resist becoming cloistered or insular. "Don't do just the [military] academy, reach beyond."
At this point, things had to be brought to a close, though the audience would have gladly listened to General Petraeus for hours. He was articulate, thoughtful, and despite a generally cool demeanor, obviously passionate about the subjects raised. The crowd gave him a standing ovation, and he dashed up the side stairs of the small theatre, and out the door. A few minutes later, I found him immersed in a cluster of Cadets and Midshipmen with whom he had graciously stopped to speak and take pictures. His slight frame nearly disappeared in the crowd, but one didn't have to see him to know he was there: The young people's faces told the story--all pointing the same direction, all wearing the same worshipful expression.
UPDATE: The director of the American Veterans Center confirmed at the closing awards banquent that it it was LT Brennan.
I also spoke to the Midshipman in question, who gave me more info about the prank with his nameplate. He said it had been stolen during Air Force Week (the Navy vs. AF football game, for which pranks are traditional), but he was exasperated and completely perlexed to see it disappear once again about a week or so later. He truly had no idea where it had gone and was stunned to see it turn up in General Petraeus' hands.
Update: Part III (Band of Brothers)
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