"Sir, we should not fly today. My grandmother says there will be a dust storm this afternoon."
"Well, Alawi, the weather briefers say that it will be clear for the next three days, and we go by the official briefing."
We launched. An hour later, one helicopter got back by making a radar approach and just barely saw the ground at the Missed Approach Point, another was stuck overnight in Erbil, the third was already on the ground inside an Iraqi Army post.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Two days later...
"Sir, we should not fly today. My grandmother says there will be a dust storm coming soon."
"The official forcast is for clear weather, Alawi. so we'll launch as scheduled."
We launched. The biggest sandstorm to hit Iraq in ten years arrived shortly afterwards, and all three helicopters barely made it into Erbil before it hit. They were stuck there for a week.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Ten days later...
"Sir, my grandmother says there will be a dust storm this afternoon."
"Alawi, how sure is your grandmother that there will be a storm? The weather forecast is for clear and hot, no wind."
"Very sure, sir."
"Okay, today we will only fly circuits here at Kirkuk."
We stayed in the pattern, and twenty minutes into the flight, a shamal came screaming into the area. All our guys made it to the pad before it hit.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Today, we're cramming six flights in so we can get the checkrides for Advanced Instruments completed, because we won't be flying tomorrow or Thursday.
The weather is forecast to be clear as a bell for the next week.
Alawi's grandma says we're in for a dust storm that will last two days...
"Well, Alawi, the weather briefers say that it will be clear for the next three days, and we go by the official briefing."
We launched. An hour later, one helicopter got back by making a radar approach and just barely saw the ground at the Missed Approach Point, another was stuck overnight in Erbil, the third was already on the ground inside an Iraqi Army post.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Two days later...
"Sir, we should not fly today. My grandmother says there will be a dust storm coming soon."
"The official forcast is for clear weather, Alawi. so we'll launch as scheduled."
We launched. The biggest sandstorm to hit Iraq in ten years arrived shortly afterwards, and all three helicopters barely made it into Erbil before it hit. They were stuck there for a week.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Ten days later...
"Sir, my grandmother says there will be a dust storm this afternoon."
"Alawi, how sure is your grandmother that there will be a storm? The weather forecast is for clear and hot, no wind."
"Very sure, sir."
"Okay, today we will only fly circuits here at Kirkuk."
We stayed in the pattern, and twenty minutes into the flight, a shamal came screaming into the area. All our guys made it to the pad before it hit.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Today, we're cramming six flights in so we can get the checkrides for Advanced Instruments completed, because we won't be flying tomorrow or Thursday.
The weather is forecast to be clear as a bell for the next week.
Alawi's grandma says we're in for a dust storm that will last two days...
Seriously, though, can you offer Alawis grandma a salary? She seems to be doing a better job than the paid guys... :D
I walked into Base Ops at McGuire one day, and dripped by the coffee machine, shedding an accumulation of liquid sunshine garnered between the flight line and the Ops Overhang. Weather guy passing by told me, "If you keep walking across the lawn like you did, the sprinklers will get you every time."
He had no idea that it was raining outside.
That's when we started getting all the false burglar alarms and reports of auto accidents. LOL
Alawi's Grandma is a wise woman.
I'd trust someone who'd been there for her whole life and was well known for being good at knowing when a local deadly condition would be likely. (I'm assuming she's pretty well known or her grandson wouldn't have brought it up.)
Visibility's already down to a mile...
(Seriously--I'd much rather have someone's mom on my side than their chief advisor. OTOH, I am Catholic, so I'm use to asking God's mom to nag him for me. ;^p)
Many thanks to her.
And now I venture out upon the tightrope...
Back in the '90s (read: "drawdown" era) USAF weather decided the best way to do more with less was to consolidate forecast responsibilities into "hubs" - aka weather squadrons, each with a geographic responsibility. The one with responisbilty for CENTCOM AO (the 28th OWS) was (and stil is) located at Shaw AFB. Operational weather forecasts for Afghanistan and Iraq are produced in South Carolina (this is an over-simplified but correct statement).
There are good reasons for consolidation; chief among them that everyone (read: various participants in an op, or various levels of command in planning) needs to be working off the same operational forecast, not independently generated (and possibly varying on crucial fine details) products. That said forecast is generated elsewhere is less significant than many might argue.
But there are still forward-deployed weather folks. Their de facto job is to provide input to that forecast (via weather observations) then to translate that forecast into operational products useful to their deployed unit.
Ponder that for a few moments and you might come to appreciate the position of the deployed guy - who might or might not be an old dude with much experience in the business, good communications skills, deep knowledge of the unit, mission, platforms, and personalities he (or she) is supporting, the sort of personality that meshes well with that situation, and the capacity for extreme stress management. (Odds are: "not", there are exceptions.) While none of that is unique requirement of a weather guesser, I would maintain the "full package" is vital to success in a unique way - amplified by impact of weather on the mission (planning and execution) - something even Sun Tzu acknowledged and for which historical examples are many.
In a deployed environment, you're likely to find an E4-E5 performing the role - the boss can't be on 24/7.
Now civilian aviation weather is done by Large Defense Company and really, really messed up.
USAF weather recently decided automated weather sensors were the shizzle. They certainly do decrease workload (eventually manning?) which has always been a 'feast or famine' thing, depending on weather occuring (there is deep irony here). Whether your forecaster pokes his or her head outside (workload permitting) from time to time is on them.
Quiz question: how many time have you requested an actual -1 when all hell was breaking lose weather-wise so you could "document" no-go? In doing so you limit the time on task the forecaster has to devote to "figure out what's going on with the weather", much the same as the non-stop phone calls (picture a screaming TOC rep - or amaybe five) and PMSV contacts do. This is not to say they aren't important - they are.
All that's part of the job, as they say. I learned to roll with it - not by being right all the time (impossible goal) or expecting others to be understanding and patient (heh). A bad forecast - while unavoidable - can't be defended. Wrong is wrong. But once the forecast "goes bad" the odds of a forecaster figuring out how to make it right (other than by chance) fall with the cig/vis. Viscious circle ensues. (This is the part of where dealing with stress and personalities becomes critical.)
Oh, and this comic is quite topical, I think.
This morning, the weather-guessers revised the forecast to reflect the sandstorm and -- it is now sunny, slight haze, and not a breath of wind.
Alawi says his grandma just chuckled and said, "Wait."
It could just mean this is a two-parter, but the more cynical among us are taking that to mean, "Wait 'til the Air Force changes the forecast again...then hang on to your hats."
You guys pay attention to those now?
Wow, how times have changed since sunny SE Asia!!!
Or the top of the control tower.
Or the roof of a hootch.
Or water.
Or...