I'm not very familiar with either of the two, but I can't help having uneasy feelings about this switch out. Unless Gates or POTUS got unspoken permission from the Paks to start sending operators over the border. That would change things.
But if McC thinks letting JSOC play whack-a-mole solely within Af-stan is going to win things here, I think he may get a rude awakening.
To me it looks like the Administration is setting things up to whack some HVTs, declare victory, and leave. McK had been ephasizing things that will take time-years-to work. Partnership with the ANSF to build up their capacity, building functional governance (there's currently really nothing functional between Kabul and the local elders), and economic development.
None of that is fast, but it will work, if you keep at it. What this moves seems to signal to me is that the current administration is not patient enough to keep at it for the length of time required, and that they don't like having foreign wars as a distraction from turning the US into their little socialist paradise.
Sign me,
Disgruntled Major
Several of the emails I had yesterday were along the lines of, "Another fine career trashed for political expediency."
My thoughts on that subject are this:
McKiernan is going to retire in grade, or get a new job, he won't be hurting. It's hard to feel sorry for him in that regard.
At his level, results should matter, and, as Lincoln discovered, sometimes you have to rotate through several otherwise fine men to find a General who's got what you need to get done what has to get done. In my email circles, no one is beating their breast over this aspect of it - and a not uncommon refrain is: Too bad Rumsfeld and Bush weren't willing to sack a few Generals from 2004-2007.
It's a harsh business, and "What have you done for me lately?" really does trump all the great stuff that got you to that level in the first place.
When you get to General officer, there is a *huge* difference between the levels of GO, in terms of what they are expected to accomplish and how they go about it. Many GOs fail moving from Division to Corps command, and from Corps to higher. Good performance at a specific level is a prerequisite, but not always a predictor of good performance at the next higher level.
General McKiernan has presided over a worsening of the situation - whether or not it's his fault. NATO as an organization certainly hasn't been all that helpful. However, Gates, Mullins and Petraeus all publicly concurred in the removal and replacement with McChyrstal.
Retiring as a 4 Star hardly counts as failure, notes the retired Major. His retirement check will be north of $12K a month.
Our disgruntled Major hits dangerously close to what I was thinking in my least charitable moments though he says it with a greater clarity than I had yet reached.
Interestingly, as CFLCC commander in OIF I, McK asked for more troops but allowed himself to be overruled by Franks and Rumsfeld. Maybe after that, he wasn't going to let them overrule his judgement again.
Or maybe it just boils down to Petreus wants his guy in charge over here. Sometimes it's just that simple.
I'll have more later, once I've had a chance to put it together more coherently.
...Of course, it might have been Burnside...
My first reaction was "well, conventional-force thinking didn't work too well in Iraq, vice classic anti-guerrila thinking, so maybe they'll put the snake-eaters in charge." On the other hand, you brought up important points I hadn't considered, which would seem to be more in line with current administration thinking. I had hoped for a moment that Barry had finally learned Chicago-style fighting, a la Jim Malone.
As I look at it, it appears to me, we are missing the whole point. The question becomes, who is actually calling the shots? The next natural question, "Why?" Are "boots on the ground" calling the shots? At this point the answer in no. In my view the answer is SCCDEF Robert Gates. Don't forget, Gates has a history, for himself. The "why" is he has been working with the Afghani People before Iraq, This was all before George W. Bush became President, #43, His Father, George H.W. Bush made him, DCI. Is there an old guilt?