Counter-terrorism, in many respects, does rely upon basic policing and detective activities such as review of physical evidence and the connections they represent.
For instance, there are reports that the Mumbai terrorists had credit cards issued in Malaysia and some type of false identification indicating the terrorists were Malaysian. In another report (not linked), the credit cards were purported to have been issued on HSB and Citibank to name two. The Indian officials are looking into whether these were stolen or forged cards.
Of interest as well is that the lone captured terrorist has stated that some members of the group may have arrived or made a trip prior to the attacks disguised as Malaysian students. The investigators are probably combing through registration at the two hotels and the Nariman house to see if these names fit any historical information. If the credit cards were used previously and remain "active", there are probably hard searches going on to determine who applied for the cards, if they are real or if there was some other form of security breach for the banks issuing the credit cards.
The credit cards and false ID from Malaysia can also point to two other issues. For instance, it likely points to LeT. LeT has an extensive network in South East Asia including connections with the Islamist terrorists on Malaysia. Men, money and materials have passed through this network on their way from and to countries in the Middle East. As this report reminds, several of the 9/11 terrorists visited Malaysia prior to the attacks. And, a conference was held between Al Qaeda and multiple other Islamist groups in Kuala Lumpur in 2000 prior to the USS Cole and 9/11 attacks.
Second, these forged identities and credit cards may point to the involvement of Dawood Ibrahim, the kingpin of smuggling and other criminal activities in India and the region. He also has extensive ties with LeT, Al Qaeda and other regional Islamist organizations. Further, credit cards are usually issued in sequential numbers. Sometimes cards are stolen or forged based on a range of numbers. The actual card numbers may be tied to other criminal or terrorist activities that can help track where the members have been or the involvement of others. The range of card numbers involved may have been previously flagged as stolen or suspicious and could lead to an entire group or organization.
India also indicates that the terrorists had SIM cards for their cell phones that were "bought" in Bangladesh. Since the SIM cards have a type of serial number, they have probably already run down what store received those serial numbers and when the SIM cards were activated. The report notes that they were SIM cards for India and had to be bought in India. Cell phone systems are not programmed the same the world over and have to be set for the country it will be used in. If they were actually bought instead of stolen, they were probably purchased with cash. It may be possible to track part of the "logistics" network through this purchase.
Further, as previously reported, RAW (Research and Analysis Wing, Indian Intel) has a load of unreviewed raw data that correlates with these cards and the cell phone numbers that can be mined for information. The FBI is involved in cracking the codes and obtaining information.
Other physical evidence includes the weapons that the terrorists used. One report indicates that the terrorists had AK-47s and "automatic pistols" while a later report shows a picture of five HK MP5 submachine guns retrieved from the terrorists. The HK MP5 is generally licensed to multiple countries for manufacturing, but are typically used by the security forces, military units and police. The original report that the terrorists had MP5s created some fear that they were supplied by the Pakistan army which is licensed to manufacture the weapon at their military ordinance factory. However, this later report indicates that the MP5s appeared to have been taken off the dead or wounded Indian security forces. However, Analysis India also makes a note:
That may or may not be true. Basic operations of certain weapons are quite similar.
Whatever is the case, if any of the weapons are somewhat new or have any serial numbers still attached, investigators may be able to trace the manufacturer, country of origin and other information to get closer to any other wings of the terror or criminal network.
They will probably also likely do a chemical analysis on the RDX used in the bombs to determine that origin. Most explosives have a signature compound that can be tracked sometimes to the country and manufacturer of origin. Sometimes even to the batch if the information is made available. The compound signature of the RDX used in the attack in Afghanistan on India's embassy was one of the pieces of evidence that suggested Pakistan's ISI or Army. On the other hand, Pakistan is so rife with corruption, criminals and other associations that it would be difficult to say emphatically whether it was provided "officially" or simply "walked away" from any military ordinance stocks.
One other piece of rather innocuous evidence that has been mentioned in at least three reports is the "brand new" Yamaha outboard engine used to propel the rubber raft full of terrorists to the hi-jacked Kuber (fishing trawler) and into Mumbai. What is significant is that all three reports referred to this engine as "new". In which case, it may be possible to track down the serial number, where it was delivered and who purchased it or if it was stolen, when and where.
All of this provides multiple avenues to be able to roll up part of the terrorist network, determine involvement of any specific entities or persons and provide additional avenues of investigation.
For instance, there are reports that the Mumbai terrorists had credit cards issued in Malaysia and some type of false identification indicating the terrorists were Malaysian. In another report (not linked), the credit cards were purported to have been issued on HSB and Citibank to name two. The Indian officials are looking into whether these were stolen or forged cards.
Of interest as well is that the lone captured terrorist has stated that some members of the group may have arrived or made a trip prior to the attacks disguised as Malaysian students. The investigators are probably combing through registration at the two hotels and the Nariman house to see if these names fit any historical information. If the credit cards were used previously and remain "active", there are probably hard searches going on to determine who applied for the cards, if they are real or if there was some other form of security breach for the banks issuing the credit cards.
The credit cards and false ID from Malaysia can also point to two other issues. For instance, it likely points to LeT. LeT has an extensive network in South East Asia including connections with the Islamist terrorists on Malaysia. Men, money and materials have passed through this network on their way from and to countries in the Middle East. As this report reminds, several of the 9/11 terrorists visited Malaysia prior to the attacks. And, a conference was held between Al Qaeda and multiple other Islamist groups in Kuala Lumpur in 2000 prior to the USS Cole and 9/11 attacks.
Second, these forged identities and credit cards may point to the involvement of Dawood Ibrahim, the kingpin of smuggling and other criminal activities in India and the region. He also has extensive ties with LeT, Al Qaeda and other regional Islamist organizations. Further, credit cards are usually issued in sequential numbers. Sometimes cards are stolen or forged based on a range of numbers. The actual card numbers may be tied to other criminal or terrorist activities that can help track where the members have been or the involvement of others. The range of card numbers involved may have been previously flagged as stolen or suspicious and could lead to an entire group or organization.
India also indicates that the terrorists had SIM cards for their cell phones that were "bought" in Bangladesh. Since the SIM cards have a type of serial number, they have probably already run down what store received those serial numbers and when the SIM cards were activated. The report notes that they were SIM cards for India and had to be bought in India. Cell phone systems are not programmed the same the world over and have to be set for the country it will be used in. If they were actually bought instead of stolen, they were probably purchased with cash. It may be possible to track part of the "logistics" network through this purchase.
Further, as previously reported, RAW (Research and Analysis Wing, Indian Intel) has a load of unreviewed raw data that correlates with these cards and the cell phone numbers that can be mined for information. The FBI is involved in cracking the codes and obtaining information.
Other physical evidence includes the weapons that the terrorists used. One report indicates that the terrorists had AK-47s and "automatic pistols" while a later report shows a picture of five HK MP5 submachine guns retrieved from the terrorists. The HK MP5 is generally licensed to multiple countries for manufacturing, but are typically used by the security forces, military units and police. The original report that the terrorists had MP5s created some fear that they were supplied by the Pakistan army which is licensed to manufacture the weapon at their military ordinance factory. However, this later report indicates that the MP5s appeared to have been taken off the dead or wounded Indian security forces. However, Analysis India also makes a note:
This is also an indication, said a senior officer, that the terrorists were trained in the use of this sophisticated weapon as well.
That may or may not be true. Basic operations of certain weapons are quite similar.
Whatever is the case, if any of the weapons are somewhat new or have any serial numbers still attached, investigators may be able to trace the manufacturer, country of origin and other information to get closer to any other wings of the terror or criminal network.
They will probably also likely do a chemical analysis on the RDX used in the bombs to determine that origin. Most explosives have a signature compound that can be tracked sometimes to the country and manufacturer of origin. Sometimes even to the batch if the information is made available. The compound signature of the RDX used in the attack in Afghanistan on India's embassy was one of the pieces of evidence that suggested Pakistan's ISI or Army. On the other hand, Pakistan is so rife with corruption, criminals and other associations that it would be difficult to say emphatically whether it was provided "officially" or simply "walked away" from any military ordinance stocks.
One other piece of rather innocuous evidence that has been mentioned in at least three reports is the "brand new" Yamaha outboard engine used to propel the rubber raft full of terrorists to the hi-jacked Kuber (fishing trawler) and into Mumbai. What is significant is that all three reports referred to this engine as "new". In which case, it may be possible to track down the serial number, where it was delivered and who purchased it or if it was stolen, when and where.
All of this provides multiple avenues to be able to roll up part of the terrorist network, determine involvement of any specific entities or persons and provide additional avenues of investigation.
Interesting that you should mention that and "Multan" since the lone captured terrorist Qasam (Kasab, Iman or whatever his name really is) has told the Indian police that prior to being "sold" to the LeT by his poor family at the ripe old age of 18 or 19, he was making part of his living as a member of a "criminal gang" in Multan. Of all places.
So, basically, if these fellows showed up in India from Pakistan claiming to be Malaysian students taking a tour, no one would have blinked.
Great information from the ground, Chief. PS...that almost sounds James Bondish of you.
One other thing...as I'm reading, if you come back around to comment, there are reports that our captured terrorist friend speaks "very good English". At the same time he is giving out the story he is from a poor family and just attended a Madrasa until he dropped out of "school" when he was 14 or 15. What are the probabilities that some poor kid getting a Madrasa education grows up to speak "very good English"? Or that some poor kid goes to school all the way until he is 14 or 15?
I don't think the madrassas put a big premium on language skills, although they might in Pakistan -- I could see where they might want to prepare their students for higher secular education as well as a higher religious one. Some Pak businessmen fund madrassa scholarships for indigent students, so it's not farfetched that he didn't need funds to attend a local school. Interesting that he claimed to be in a gang in Multan -- that would give him a good background in firearms, particularly automatic weapons. There were firefights between the cops and the bad guys just about every night. Even bicycle thieves packed heat.
If I were an interrogator, I'd be probing to find out just how long he'd been speaking "very good English" and who he'd been speaking with. The Iraqi kaydets get about a months' worth of immersion in English before they get commissioned and come here, and most are at a sixth-grade level by then. By the time they're ready to graduate, they surprise the hell out of the troops they meet in the PX/BX who pretty much expected them to be Tonto to their Lone Ranger.
Which is,or was, IIRC, the standard service rifle of the Pak army. So if these guys were in Pakistan for any training, they could have easily had some exposure to those.