Stratfor provides another interesting take that seems to reflect an earlier report that this attack was an "off the shelf plan" tweaked for Mumbai.
Mumbai and the New York Landmarks Plot
The plan included entry into the island by sea and to blow the Lincoln and Holland tunnels to cut off entry and exit from the island. Attacking multiple sites to sow chaos and using decoy vehicles to confuse responders and gain entry.
Stratfor goes on to outline the attack including the prepositioning of arms, munition and food as well as infiltrating the staff of the hotel. They continue by outlining the similtarities including the geography (an island) that provided limited egress for the population and ingress for any additional responders.
Most noteworthy for preparedness is that we are constantly looking for new threats, yet, the terrorists are not beyond simply finding a successful strategy or tactic and even target to use over and over again
.
Read the rest.
In the end, we cannot dismiss either that it was al Qaeda nor can we dismiss that similar attacks won't happen somewhere else. We may find some comfort as Americans is that our intelligence and what we must assume is the assistance of our Muslim population in identifying potential threats within their communities has kept us safe. Also, we should realize that, indeed, taking the war to the enemy has limited, in some degree, their capabilities. We can tell because they chose to attack someplace that was closer geographically and had an inbuilt logistics system that they have been using for two decades to transit within South East Asia and the Middle East.
That same system that they do not have to the same degree or safety here.
Mumbai and the New York Landmarks Plot
The planned attack, which came to be known as the "Landmarks" plot, called for several tactical teams to raid sites such as the Waldorf-Astoria, St. Regis and U.N. Plaza hotels, the Lincoln and Holland tunnels, and a midtown Manhattan waterfront heliport servicing business executives and VIPs traveling from lower Manhattan to various New York-area airports. The militants carried out extensive surveillance both inside and outside the target hotels using human probes, hand-drawn maps and video surveillance. Detailed notes were taken on the layout and design of the buildings, with stairwells, ballrooms, security cameras and personnel all reconnoitered.
The plan included entry into the island by sea and to blow the Lincoln and Holland tunnels to cut off entry and exit from the island. Attacking multiple sites to sow chaos and using decoy vehicles to confuse responders and gain entry.
Stratfor goes on to outline the attack including the prepositioning of arms, munition and food as well as infiltrating the staff of the hotel. They continue by outlining the similtarities including the geography (an island) that provided limited egress for the population and ingress for any additional responders.
Most noteworthy for preparedness is that we are constantly looking for new threats, yet, the terrorists are not beyond simply finding a successful strategy or tactic and even target to use over and over again
.
Like a contingency plan that might sit on the shelf for years or decades before it is useful, terrorist plots (especially good ones) can have a long shelf life and be applied in various scenarios. In fact, plans that sit on the shelf longer might actually be more effective as security officials focus their attention on evolving threats and forget old ones.
Just because a plot has been disrupted, the threat has not been eliminated. Once terrorists happen upon a successful model, they are likely to follow that model. This can be seen in al Qaeda's return to the World Trade Center in 2001, eight years after the initial truck bomb attacks in 1993. It can also be seen in the fact that Mumbai has been the target of multiple attacks and threats, including train bombings in 2006 that killed approximately 200 people. Though the tactics might have differed, the target set remained the same. Various parts of the attack cycle can change, but rarely does an attack occur that is completely novel.
Read the rest.
In the end, we cannot dismiss either that it was al Qaeda nor can we dismiss that similar attacks won't happen somewhere else. We may find some comfort as Americans is that our intelligence and what we must assume is the assistance of our Muslim population in identifying potential threats within their communities has kept us safe. Also, we should realize that, indeed, taking the war to the enemy has limited, in some degree, their capabilities. We can tell because they chose to attack someplace that was closer geographically and had an inbuilt logistics system that they have been using for two decades to transit within South East Asia and the Middle East.
That same system that they do not have to the same degree or safety here.
