The right fine blog Zombietime urges us to declare that today is Victory in Iraq Day. I can empathize, because it's clear that President Bush isn't going to declare a victory. There's been discussion aplenty around here on the merits of the idea, with yours truly the curmudgeonly hold-out asserting that in this kind of war, it's too early to call it a win. Mind you, I hope you're all correct.
But I hold a contrarian (and apparently minority) position.
Heh. If it all does go well and we leave cleanly in 2011, with a functional nation of Iraq standing tall, I can't wait to see how a declaration of victory is handled then. Here's the bloggers who have signed up for today -
Victory in Iraq Day: Participating Blogs
There are some dedicated and smart folks on that list. Heck, Bing West declared the war over and won during a panel discussion (and subsequent discussions over cognac and cigars) during the National Review Post-Election Cruise.
Castle Argghhh! is not on that list, but I'll give credit to those who are willing to stand tall on the issue.
As ever, history will truly be the judge. The Victory Parades of 1919 seemed quaint when the bill of victory came due in 1939. But those parades were appropriate, as they came after a clear end to the war, no one realizing it was really the opening act of a further maellstrom of violence. It could have been the final act, had the fruits of victory in the field been handled better. Not to mention the Depression (note to President-elect Obama).
The parades for WWII were well and truly deserved as a joint celebration of the end of the madness, even if a murderous Stalin was squatting across half of Europe and a bloodthirsty Mao was marching to culturally revolutionize China. Then came Korea. With the truce in Korea, the fighting stopped, mostly, but there weren't any parades. It certainly didn't feel like victory - especially to a people who had just laid Germany and Japan low only eight years earlier. Later, Vietnam sputtered to a halt for us, if it was in the end rather more abrupt for the South Vietnamese.
A closer analogue to what we've been facing is perhaps the Phillipine Insurrection. The official end to the Phillipine Insurrection came on July 4th, 1902 after the Secretary of War affirmed to President Theodore Roosevelt that the provisions of the Phillipine Organic Act of 1902, which established the Phillipine Commission and Assembly, (which organs of government paralleled the Senate and House of our government - as long as the Senate was appointed by the US President). With that done, the post of Military Governor was terminated and the war declared over, although there were a few holdouts and scattered violence continued for some years.
That completed the annexation of the Phillipines under a US governor, a US appointed Senate equivalent, and a House analogue comprised of Phillipinos with local provincial and city governments in place. And the US Army and Navy present to back up the Phillipine Constabulary.
Not quite a perfect fit, given that we set it up so that we were running it, but close enough. In this paradigm, I suppose you could say that the ratification by the Iraqi legislature and subsequent implementation of the Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA) and Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) would arguably meet the standard for calling the war over.
The Iraqi legislature has yet to ratify the agreement, but will either accept or reject it by year's end - or else we'll be asking the Security Council to extend our mandate, given how our own legislature authorized the war.
Zombie admits there's no special significance to the day.
So, why the rush?Several people have written in to ask what is significant about November 22; why was it chosen as the date for VI Day? The answer is: There's nothing militarily significant about this day. There are no major events related to the Iraq War that happened on November 22. It's just a convenient day, chosen essentially at random. Some date must be chosen, and this is just as good as any other, since there is no actual distinct date of surrender or of the war's self-evident cessation.
Another problem I have with this concept besides an arbitrary date is that it's *koff* so, um, well, unilateral. I don't see Iraq the Model on this list, for example - though it may well be that no one asked...
The Iraqis, upon ratification of the agreements, become fully sovereign allies, vice junior partners. And while their public opinion on the war and that status is as fractured as ours, the Iraqis who support the government of Iraq (even in opposition, but still members of the government) are not the enemy over whom we are declaring victory.
Saddam's regime and its holdouts and AQI Inc were the enemy.
Me, I'm more comfortable holding the victory celebration (and joint parade with the Iraqis, if that's politically feasible) at some point when the last major US combat units are withdrawing, and aren't doing so under fire being chased out to Kuwait or Turkey. To be sure, not everything will be gone, at least for a while, as we continue to support the Iraqis with trainers and advisors, but there will come a point when it's clear the "center is holding" as we draw down our forces.
That's when I'm ready to declare victory and have a few parades. Simultaneous ones (accounting for time zones) in Iraq, Great Britain, Poland, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Japan, and all the other nations who sent forces to support the Coalition. Unlike Zombie, I *do* want to tie it to some significant event, and not just randomly pick a day.
And I don't care who is President when it happens.
But I will care if it doesn't happen.
Not the parades.
The victory.
Update: An excellent question brought up in email... how many of the Victory In Iraq bloggers are *also* supporting Project Valour-IT? A cursory scan shows a goodly number. And you, dear reader, if you haven't yet support PVIT - you should - by clicking right here!
Update: BTW - this conversation continues in this post.
VE and VJ da were long before the last troops left or reconstruction was done and, as you note, when each successive end of war left us with something else waiting.
Such is the nature of war and peace.
When the last troops leave, that will simpl be the day the last troops leave. Vini, Vidi, Vici!
I get it that y'all don't see it my way. Go have a parade. I'll wave flags, too, or drive a float.
But within *weeks* of VE and VJ day, the troops were coming home in droves, or, for some, shifting theaters after VE day, which would be analgous to Afstan. If you wanted a parade for the purely military side of things, to coincide with the purely military aspect of things, you missed that mark by many months. But war is quintessentially a political activity. And unlike Germany and Japan, there is still a significant military threat internal to the Iraqi nation.
Greyhawk made some excellent points that I'll put in a post tomorrow, if he'll let me.
It's a context distortion to me John. I think you are dead right in your wider context of the war on Terrorism (or whatever the hell they renamed it to) but dead wrong in the context of war in Iraq. I think Iraq is won. John there will be no obvious victory day for you to choose. I chose a date quite some time before now. There will be no surrender signing dates or silencing of the guns. Troops will draw down slowly, probably will be a few there for many years.
I hope it stays won I have good reason to hope but I know it's a bit of a house of cards. The difference is now it's more up to Iraqis to keep winning and less up to the US. It's also become more of a citizen battle than a military one.
With the Democrat rise to power in all branches of govenment, the danger arises of the Dems claiming that they were the reason we won in Iraq.
If Thomas Dewey had defeated FDR in 1944, we would all have learned in grade school that the Republicans won the war.
I want Pres. Bush to get the credit for the win, which is why we needed to declare victory now.