tag:www.thedonovan.com,2010://1/tag:www.thedonovan.com,2008://1.10059- Comments for Mumbai Attacks: Strategic Convergence (updated) We're the Military and Airpower Guys of Jonah Goldberg of National Review Online + a stray we found wandering around looking lost. All original material JHD, BHD, JR, WT, and KA 2003-2010 Movable Type 4.12 tag:www.thedonovan.com,2008://1.10059 2008-11-27T06:38:12Z 2008-11-27T10:46:36Z Mumbai Attacks: Strategic Convergence (updated) Kat http://themiddleground.blogspot.com Mumbai, India was attacked Wednesday evening by an unknown number assailants.  Reports indicate at least 101 dead and 270 wounded.  A number of the dead are police, but the majority were simply innocent bystanders.  At least 6 foreign nationals were killed.

Gateway pundit has a good round up.  Times of India has on going coverage as well, but the site is extremely slow.  Reports indicate that 5 terrorists are held up in the Taj with 50 hostages and another 7 are in the Oberi with approximately 100 hostages.  Early reports also indicate that the terrorists specifically looked for American and British passport holders.  Some reports are also indicating that military grade RDX was used in the explosions. 

The group taking credit at this time is called Deccan Mujihadeen or Mujihadeen of India.  They are demanding the release of "all mujihadeen".  The attack comes one day after the arrest of  Raheel Sheikh in England, a known leader of the Lashkar-e-Toiba.  Both the Counter Terrorism Blog, Long War Journal and several terrorism experts on the foreign cable news seem to indicate the probability that Deccan Mujihadeen is related to the Lashkar-e-Toiba.  Laskhar-e-Toiba has significant ties with other major Islamist terror networks, including Al Qaeda, in both the Waziristan and Kashmiri provinces and Pakistan and Afghanistan in general. 

The attacks were well organized and bigger than any attacks to date.  The attackers came in via a larger boat in the port of The Gate of India.  the boat was laden with high explosives.  They then came ashore in small rubber boats before attacking multiple sites.  Some of the terrorists began first by creating a distraction, attacking random sites on the way to their intended destinations.  Almost immediately, three top anti-terror cops were killed. 

The attacks were not only well coordinated, but showed a more advanced planning with specific targeting and methods.  This planning and targeting follows what has become the norm in large scale attacks:  strategic convergence.  In other words, the coordination and targets are not random nor simply targets of opportunity where the plan is simply to kill as many people as possible and get as much media attention as possible. 
Because carrying out these attacks are dangerous and operationally laborious, Al Qaida picks targets with three main objectives in mind: political, financial and psychological. The more spectacular attacks outside of Iraq usually represent an intersection or combination of the three goals in order to get the most "bang" for their buck.

Previous successful attacks included the attacks on Bali night clubs, the 3/11 Madrid bombings of the trains and the 7/7 London bombings of the trains. Further evidence of this fairly normal pattern can be seen in the attacks carried out in Iraq. Besides police, coalition and other government targets, Al Qaida operatives in Iraq targeted markets, gas stations, banks, business, electrical plants and lines, major transportation routes and other targets that represented a "strategic convergence" outside of military targets.

Al Qaida has planned to use US dependency on foreign oil since the beginning of the "hot" war in 2001. In 2006, Saudi Arabia interrupted a plan to attack their largest oil refinery, arresting 172, capturing money and a large arms cache. In February 2007, Al Qaida issued another direct threat against US oil resources, prompting several countries to beef up security at their facilities. The threat to the US economy and military capabilities abroad posed by our dependence on foreign oil imports and threats to that resource continues to be very real.

Other financial targets have included the resorts in Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt as well as various tourist attractions in Morocco and other destinations.
Mumbai, India represents a similar nexus of strategic convergence.  It is the financial hub of India.  It is the seat of governance for the province.  It has high value landmarks.  It is highly trafficked by tourists.  It has an extensive transportation system.  All of which came under attack on Wednesday, November 26.  Most of these are also considered "soft targets" since they are not barricaded and are open due to high traffick.

Most importantly, the attacks are not only psychologically damaging, but seeks to impact India's financial stability by scaring off businesses and tourists and making it costly to do business in the area or nation.  Since the original attacks on the WTC in 1993, Al Qaeda and its familial adherents have aimed at the financial capabilities of any nations it attacks.  In its own statements, Al Qaeda believes that the economies of the United States and its fellow nations supports their military capabilities to attack or interdict their own political and military aims. 

Lashkar-e-Toiba (also, LeT, Laskhar-e-Talib, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Laskhar-e-Tayyiba) has one over arching goal: 
The LeT’s professed ideology goes beyond merely challenging India's sovereignty over the State of Jammu and Kashmir. The Lashkar's ‘agenda’, as outlined in a pamphlet titled Why are we waging jihad includes the restoration of Islamic rule over all parts of India. Further, the outfit seeks to bring about a union of all Muslim majority regions in countries that surround Pakistan. Towards that end, it is active in J&K, Chechnya and other parts of Central Asia.

While this goal is relatively "regional", it shares a similar over-arching goal of such Islamist terrorist organizations as Al Qaeda.  LeT has used the Al Qaeda network to spread its organization and attack targets in other nations.  South Asia Terrorism Portal has a long list of attacks within India.  Most of which seem to be small, limited target, limited material and limited participation though with an occasional large casualty suicide bombing.  All of which points to either a long learning process to sophistication in this latest attack or the probability that there is a new or more closely nurtured strategic planning with a more senior or experienced person or organization such as Al Qaeda. 

UPDATED:  The attack sites were similar to those attacks used in Iraq.  Including the Cabola Market, a train station, restraunts and the two hotels.  These also represent the "strategic convergence", not only of "soft targets" with high traffick and people, but in similar composition and purpose.  They have succeeded in shutting down the city.  Secondly, they also attacked hospitals where the injured would be taken, took over a police vehicle and used it to spray people on the street who originally looked towards the police vehicle as a sign of safety.  Third, they attacked responders when they appeared on the scene. 

Finally, the purpose of the attack represented by the "demands" of the attackers seems to have no other purpose than the violent end.  They are asking for an unattainable "release of all mujihadeen in Indian prisons" in exchange for the hostages.  This seems relatively similar to the demands that the terrorists in Iraq made prior to killing any number of hostages and is similar to the general demands set forth by such organizations as Al Qaeda in their declaration of war against "Christians and Jews". In the end, such declaration are not meant as points of negotiation.  They are simply meant to justify any acts the terrorists might take and, in the end, provide for an open ended, never ending reason for war. 

What this means for the hostages is the very likelihood that the terrorist are not planning to leave there alive nor on letting the hostages go free.  As a personal analysis, this has similar trade marks to the 9/11 attacks when the hostages were simply meant to provide time and space to complete the final task of the terror cell in creating massive death, destruction and prime time coverage.


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