Smith Was Right After All

Then there was the question of possibly 3,000 al Quds forces from Iran mixing with Hezbollah. True or propaganda from one side or the other? Considering Iraq, take the number of Al Quds with a grain of salt, but believe that there are likely a significant number of Al Quds coordinators, trainers and liaisons within Hezbollah.

Smith wrote on September 29:

Hezbollah is rehearsing for something big here. Not sure what or when. But a few days ago, between 4,000 and 5,000 HezB gunmen deployed to the Christian areas of Beirut in an unsettling “show of force,” positioning themselves at road intersections and other key points throughout the city. Two additional objectives were achieved: First, the operation served as a probing action to determine local reaction. Second, it served as an exercise to gauge the time required (speed, synchronization, etc.) to achieve the key points and intersections.

Smith wrote an apology for not verifying all his sources and not using key words appropriately. NRO let him go. He wrote a clear explanation as to what occurred. Something he wrote about the disputed Hezbollah "deployment", caught my eye:

One of my detractors said this event, “simply never happened,” because “every journalist in town would have pounced on that story, and he’s the only one who noticed?” Another detractor said that “on the day that Smith says Hezbollah 'deployed' to East Beirut, I was doing some shopping.”

Frankly, I too was surprised that I was the only one who learned of it. And there were other amazing stories that other journalists should have “pounced on” while I was in Lebanon. But they did not. And I’m not sure why.

Smith knew why and so does anyone who actually watches the Middle East and this part of it particularly. The Palestinian Authority can tell you why. The Israelis can tell you why. It is very simple: Hezbollah and the militia have become just another backdrop, another crowd of people who routinely go about a Middle Eastern country with kefiyahs covering their faces, walky talkies and small arms. They are just part of the scenery.

That is exactly how Hezbollah and other groups with similar modis operandi like it. They want to blend in, they want the people to become complacent. It is classic shaping activities for military action. Routinely move your forces around in large and small movements so that your enemy begins to see them as nothing more than routine and non-threatening. This way, when you actually do deploy your forces to strike, the enemy will not be pre-pared and will be slow to respond, giving your forces the distinct advantage of first strike and momentum.

As Smith noted, the "deployment" at the time was simply men, standing on street corners with walky talkies. Nothing too threatening. No fire arms or other weapons. He distinctly put the words "show of force" in quotation marks to indicate that it was a movement of men, but with few weapons and with no actual move to violence. Of course, the numbers were reported to him by an internal security source. He did not personally count them or confirm with another source, which is what his critics aimed for when they disputed his claims. Then he wrote:

Amazingly, there was no response from the police or the army.

There was nothing amazing about it. No one responded, not even journalists, because they became, in a word, complacent. Two to five men on a street corner with walky talkies was "normal". They didn't stop traffic or block the streets. They didn't shoot anyone. I'm sure it never interrupted the one reporter's shopping trip.

Smith wrote in his explanation:

I also said, Hezbollah was rehearsing for something big. Not sure what or when.

Fact is, it was widely reported in the international press a few weeks later -- after I had returned to the States -- that Hezbollah deployed in the thousands south of the Litani River. And though the question of whether it was an actual deployment or a paper deployment was brought into question, it is today widely accepted that the exercise did take place.

And though I was obviously correct, I did not have a crystal ball when I said “Hezbollah is rehearsing for something big here.”

Yes, and his crystal ball could not tell him that, even after the Litani Hezbollah deployment, that was not the end nor the expected place of deployment. It was simply a good place and a good way to rehearse the first phase.

That, in fact, is exactly what is going on now. Totten and others have indicated that this is the start of the Third Lebanese Civil War. But, the first one never really ended. Hezbollah says that it is moving out of Beirut and handing it back to the Lebanese Army after days of blocking roads, burning tires and taking out many of the opposition forces and offices. Quietly, right in front of the faces of the people, the army, the journalists and everyone else that is watching.

Still, this is just a shaping exercise not the actual battle.

In short, what happened in West Beirut was a given. According to a report from the pro-Hezbollah Lebanese paper Al-Akhbar, this coup had been planned well in advance and its mastermind was the recently assassinated Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh. The government may in fact have forced Nasrallah to show his hand at a time of its choosing, not his. Hezbollah's walkover in Beirut came as a surprise to no one; nor did the performance of the army, except perhaps the Bush administration which must now reconsider the amount of money it has spent on equipment and training for the Lebanese Armed Forces

This is to pressure the Parliament into selecting the President that Hezbollah wants. A pro-Syrian, pro-Iranian Hezbollah ally.

If they don't get it, the Lebanese now know what Hezbollah can do: they can take over Beirut in a New York minute and no one will stop them.