We're the Military and Airpower Guys of Jonah Goldberg of National Review Online + a stray we found wandering around looking lost. All original material JHD, BHD, JR, WT, and KA 2003-2007 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html Sun, 03 Aug 2008 15:55:30 Z Movable Type 4.12 en Copyright 2008 http://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification Open post for those with something to share, updated through the day. New, complete posts come in below this one. Note: If trackbacking, please acknowledge this post in your post. That's only polite. You're advertising here, we should get an ad at your place... Time to add a new caveat, because from email it's not clear to some folks (mind you, if you don't read this it won't matter...) Being an open post, people (collectively, the Denizens) other than I post in the H&I. They sign their work (most of the time) - keep that in mind when you want... http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html Tue, 13 May 2008 23:20:30 -0600 Welcome, Kevin. Heh, ya made me re-read what I wrote to see if you were aiming at me. I'm guessing not. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html#comment-73034 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html#comment-73034 Wed, 14 May 2008 16:16:02 -0600 First time poster here. Folks, my undergrad training was as an engineer. By and large, that profession is obsessed with finding better and more efficient ways of doing things; that those new solutions are often more elegant and, dare I say, beautiful than the ones they replaced. For example, you can look at the Red Baron's Fokker triplane with a certain bit of nostalgia but an F-18 just strikes awe into you. The Brooklyn Bridge was a feat for its time, but I saw a documentary on the building of the world's largest suspension bridge, and that bridge is almost ethereal in design. So it irks me when I hear my fellow conservatives decry attempts to build a better car platform. I think global warming is a pile of BS, and I think we have plenty of oil, but I don't think either of those is a good or sufficient reason to stop trying to find a better way to move people around. Most Canadians and Americans do the majority of their driving in stop-and-go urban traffic. When you're stopped at a traffic light in a gas car, you're getting zero MPG. In an electric car, you're not wasting any energy. From an engineering point of view, an electric motor supplemented by a gasoline engine for longer trips (where the energy density of gas is far higher than that of ethanol or hydrogen) is by far the most sensible solution. Let's say the extra cost of a hybrid is $3,500 per car. The $7 billion spent on ethanol subsidies would allow the Big 3 to produce two million hybrids each year at no extra cost to the consumer. What would this do to US energy security? Using US Dept. of Transport figures of 12,000 miles per year for passenger cars, 66/33 urban/rural split in miles driven, and 25 mpg average fuel economy (numbers slightly rounded for ease of calculation), the average driver uses 480 gallons a year. Further assumptions: hybrid car gets 100 mpg in urban driving (mostly off battery but assume the gas engine has to kick in occasionally), and the same 25 mpg on highway. This driver uses less than 240 g/yr, or about half the previous average. This represents about 65,000 barrels/day, which may seem like a drop in the bucket compared to the 5.5 million b/d the US imports from OPEC, but after 10 years, this would be close to 700,000 b/d, assuming no one else bought a hybrid. In 10 years, I would expect the price differential of hybrids to come down to next to zero, and the actual number of hybrids on the road would be substantially higher than 20 million. If half the roughly 100 million passenger cars converted to hybrids over the next ten years - a not unreasonable assumption - and the gas portion of the hybrid didn't improve from our current estimate of 25 mpg - a quite unreasonable assumption, IMHO - the US could save over 1.6 million b/d, or roughly one third of its OPEC imports. I believe in the event, we would see savings of at least half of OPEC imports. 2.5 million b/d at $100/b, saves $250 million per day, or over $91 billion/year that won't go to the Saudi terrorists. Isn't that a goal worth getting behind? http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html#comment-73033 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html#comment-73033 Wed, 14 May 2008 15:23:07 -0600 JimC, actually in a capitalist economy pricing is set my supply and demand. Unless the taxing changes that the best pricing point (capturing the most purchasers fro the most money) will remain the same and the extra costs are not passed on. Hence is just directly affects profitability. The same applies to corporate 'savings'. In reality of course we may see taxes and other corporate costs passed on, which therefore cost the company custom and that there is a double impact on profit. The tax impact and the loss of sales from bad pricing policy. Keep in mind this is capitalist idealism. It does not apply as well for high 'need' materials like water or electricity where the price can pretty much hit the moon before people change their purchasing habits. It also doesn't apply as well where government protectionism of consumer or business is involved. And then there's cooking the books where the tax itself is challenged. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html#comment-72987 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html#comment-72987 Tue, 13 May 2008 21:20:03 -0600 wing of a Cobra...]]> http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html#comment-72983 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html#comment-72983 Tue, 13 May 2008 15:43:19 -0600 I spent four years working in the Gulf of Mexico oil fields in the early 90s. Hurricane Andrew took a path a bit west of Katrina that put it directly through the the heart of the oldest oil fields in the Gulf. No major oil spills after Andrew either. The reason for this is that the wells are shut down as the storm approaches. As a general rule the field hands take their role protecting the environment very seriously. Like hunters, they tend to be a group of people that use and enjoy the outdoors. I remember seeing only a few small slicks (the largest being made by tens of gallons at the most) during my time in the Gulf. All of which were caused by malfunctioning equipment. Only once was the spill from a platform. The rest were from the work boats that service the fields. I think the reason Florida, California, the Carolinas and even Michigan are so afraid of expanded offshore drilling is strictly NIMBY. They don't want to look at the structures. Same for new refineries. Refineries are big and they stink. Plain and simple. New jobs and lower gas prices be darned. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html#comment-72979 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html#comment-72979 Tue, 13 May 2008 11:17:06 -0600 Does anyone in Congress or anywhere else outside of corporate board rooms understand that corporations,ultimately, don't pay taxes? The just pass on the additional cost to us consumers. I really do wish that someday we get a government that sort of, almost, understands economics and our system. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html#comment-72977 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html#comment-72977 Tue, 13 May 2008 10:23:53 -0600 China started building its third oil reserve in December 2007. Expected to reach a total reserve of 98 million barrels of oil or more. That is on top of their expanded use due to expanded economy. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html#comment-72973 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html#comment-72973 Tue, 13 May 2008 08:54:00 -0600 One (1) angel can dance on the head of a pin ... if said angel or pin is big or small enough. Occam's Razor. LOL http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html#comment-72972 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2008/05/hi_fires_13_may_1.html#comment-72972 Tue, 13 May 2008 08:41:26 -0600