Overall, COL Lehr gave the impression that Diyala province is a bit of a mixed bag, which is to be expected, considering that it lags areas like central Iraq in terms of the "Awakening," etc. It's not as far along in development of Iraqi Security Forces (police and army) as 3rd ID's AO is, but COL Lehr believes "we are running al Qaeda off" in the Diyala province. He also said Coalition Forces have good relationships with the Sons of Iraq, noting, "I have an allegiance to them" because they have fought hard and "spilled their blood" to drive al Qaeda out of the province.

He rates progress in terms of three "lines of operations:" Security, transition (to ISF leadership of security) and governance. On a green-to-red scale, he describes security as amber--"Pretty good, considering what the province has been through in the last year." Transition is amber to red, having made "vast improvements since last summer...The Iraqi Army is capable of unilateral operations with support from enablers [air support, artillery, logistics]." The red factor comes in when looking at the Iraqi police, which he describes as "a bit more challenging," with problems related to a lack of numbers, training quality and professionalism. Governance is amber. "If we walked away right now, the provincial government could function. The capacity and subject-matter expertise is not there, but it would function."

Interestingly, 4th Stryker BCT is seeing a change in tactics from IEDs to a preference for suicide vests. There are still attempts at IEDs, but ISF and Coalition Forces are increasingly capable of detecting and mitigating IEDs. In addition, the MRAP vehicle is making IEDs less effective, and al Qaeda is "on the ropes. Everything we hear and read from our sources is that they are very scared and confused about what is going on" in terms of military actions and the Awakening.

COL Lehr seems very concerned about the possiblity of the recent violence and Shia (Sadr-related) extremism "migrating" to Diyala province. He acknowledges that in some ways it may be a case of being overly-concerned, but he is keeping a very watchful eye on it. It is an issue that he has repeatedly discussed with local Shia and Sunni leadership, even before the more recent spasms of violence in southern Iraq. The good news is that the local leaders reportedly believe that any Sadr-related disruptions will be more civil disobedience that outright violence, and they are very serious about avoiding sectarian conflicts. Ultimately, COL Lehr said that while they are prepared for violence against the coalition by "special groups" [a euphemism for Iranian-influenced/supported organizations] and those who have split off from Sadr's cease fire, they don't expect it in the current unrest.

Overall, COL Lehr reports a downward turn in attacks on coalition and ISF in Diyala Province, even in the last seven to ten days. Attacks are "well below the historical norm," and extremely low against coalition forces. Yesterday by the time of the roundtable (9 p.m. in Iraq), he had received only two reports of "significant events"--discovery of an IED (EFP), and a weapons cache that was turned over.

Like the rest of the issues in Diyala, the quality of the Sons of Iraq is mixed. "Not all CLCs [Concerned Local Citizens groups] are created equal," he says. In Diayala, they have naturally split themselves into two groups: rural organizations who are tribally-based and not really political, and urban (in Baquba) groups that are very political and looking forward to the provincial elections this Fall. In Baquba, four CLC-type groups have formed a joint political committee.

I asked COL Lehr about concerns that the urban CLCs could become political militias and might be negatively influenced by foreign elements. He acknowledged that this is a major concern and a complicated issue. "I do see foreign influence," he says. "At this point and time I don’t think it’s negative... It could easily become negative." He is clearly concerned about a political insurgency developing, and he added with an edge to his voice, "The Iraqi government needs to pay attention to the situation... there is a lot of political posturing going on in Iraq right now." However, he is optimistic about the current quality and effectiveness of the CLCs. "We’ve done a lot of good detective work, and we have culled a lot of bad apples," he reports. "We have detained dozens of bad or rogue CLCs and AQ infiltrators." Since November 2007, 60-80 high-value targets have been removed from the CLC program in Diyala.

More about the the Roundtable here and here (pdf), including COL Lehr's candid thoughts on the recent "strike" of the CLCs, and a new program to employ CLC members in work similar to what they are doing now.

There have been a number of very interesting Blogger's Roundtables recently, including one on the development of the Afghan National Army (by MG Robert Cone). Check it out!