Argghhh! The Home Of Two Of Jonah's Military Guys.. - Saving Afghanistan From Itself: Food and Opium

[Kat]

Several reports have been issued of late regarding the status of Afghanistan and the fears that the country might still be lost to the Taliban. Karzai recently stated his fear that extremists could still take over Afghanistan, though he blamed it largely on the rise of the Taliban and other extremists in Pakistan. The United States will be sending more Marines, but Nato allies have all rejected sending additional troops and many refuse to allow their troops into combat. Australia, one of the United States' staunchest allies, recently rejected the same call for more troops stating that their troop mix might change, but numbers wouldn't.

In Canada, there is strong debate about whether they would continue the Afghan mission at all if NATO does not send more troops. Canada is one of the few countries whose forces have been in constant contact with insurgents. At the same time, the population still debates and refers to the mission as "peace keeping". Yet, Canadian forces continue to sacrifice along with American service men.

The struggle in Afghanistan cannot be simply broken down into a struggle against the Taliban and Al Qaida. The problems inside Afghanistan often have much to do with the people, the geography, warlords, internal and external politics, ethnic tensions and many more issues that do not equate to fighting a war, force on force. But, they do equate to continuing instability that allows various insurgent groups, criminal gangs and opportunistic warlords to take advantage of the people and consolidate their power over them.

One such problem continues to be a sore point between multiple agencies and allies. That problem is the existence of poppies and the Opium trade. Since the fall of the Taliban, poppy growing and the Opium trade could be considered Afghanistan's number one agricultural crop and export to other nations. As it has in the past, the money from this crop has been used to eke out a subsistence by the farmers and fund weapons and insurgents for the various factions.

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Debate continues about how to address this problem. While some advocate spraying the fields for eradication, others insist that will simply drive the price up and drive the farmers into the arms of insurgency, directly fighting NATO forces as the only way they can be paid and support their families. In the meantime, international drug enforcement agencies are overwhelmed and unable to make any headway against actual criminals. Many are protected by tribal leaders, warlords and even politicians within the Afghan government.

At the same time, the growth of the poppy as the number one agricultural crop has other consequences that is likely to undermine NATO efforts there and keep Afghanistan a failed state for decades to come. As poppy fields grow, other crops disappear even as multiple international aid agencies try to assist Afghanis with planting new or hardier strains of vegetables, grains and other exportable crops like cotton.

These crops can't compete with the money farmers can make from growing poppies. As staple crops disappear, the price of food rises exponentially and so does the risk for thousands and possibly millions of starving Afghanis. The UN recently called for assistance in delivering 89,000 tonnes of food to Afghanis. The UN reports that over 2.6 million Afghanis will be in "crisis" this winter without the assistance. According to the report, wheat prices have risen almost 60% in most areas of Afghanistan and up to 80% in others.

The report blames the rising prices on "world food markets" that have seen a rise in price as the cost of fuel to transport food to markets rise as well as demand from growing markets and the use of certain food crops for ethanol production. Another issue has been a drought suffered throughout 2007. However, Afghanistan is not simply swayed by external forces on food markets.

According to the Killid Group, an independent NGO, poppy growth is a serious factor on the decrease of wheat and other staples grown for internal markets.

This year, output of the staple wheat dropped from 4.4 to 3.7 million tonnes. At a recent press conference, the Minister of Agriculture blamed the ongoing drought for the sharp fall. Wheat is the most important crop, and the main source of food for the majority of Afghans.

But experts and the public contest the government's claim. They argue that drought is not the only factor to blame for the current wheat crisis in the country. There are other more important reasons, they insist.

A key determinant in the equation is poppy cultivation by Afghan farmers. Farmers stand to gain far more from cultivating poppy, and as a result few farmers are willing to grow wheat. This, according to experts, is causing wheat shortages in the market.

Another issue is cheap imported wheat from neighboring countries. The report indicates that farmers are unable to find markets for their surplus wheat and sale it at a competitive price. This leads many of them to return to poppy cultivation to survive. At the same time, reduced internal competition for the wheat market as well as Afghanistan's notoriously bad infrastructure for transporting goods, raw materials and food and the potential for insurgent or criminal attacks makes wheat a scarce commodity and lends to ever increasing prices.

Afghan farmers deserve greater government protection which can be made possible through passing of new legislation and adopting procedural measures to regulate cheap wheat imports from neighbouring countries.
According to news reports, farmers complain that the government is slow to deal with their problems. There are difficulties in accessing information on pricing of agricultural commodities and markets within and outside the country. Neither are financial or material credit, improved seeds, fertilisers and pesticides available.

Afghan farmers insist that these unresolved problems are the reason for the food shortfall. Because of falling prices farmers find it not worth their while to reap the harvest and market it.

This problem has been occurring for several years. The drought may have simply made it an imperative. The same issue was reported by USAID and the WFP through the Famine Early Warnings System Networks. According to this report, there are major problems with Afghanistan's agricultural infrastructure and subsidized wheat imported from Pakistan makes the wheat market unprofitable. It also indicates that those farmers in Afghanistan that do grow wheat, typically consume most of their wheat "on farm" leaving less than 10% for the market. Bread from wheat flour constitutes over 50% of the caloric intake of average Afghanis.

Other issues include the lack of credit, as noted by the Killid Group, and the lack of storage for grains. In short, every transaction must be concluded in the here and now when cash is available and the wheat can be quickly consumed before it is damaged by damp, cold, rodents or other pests. There is little room for building reserves in the market that would maintain a steady flow of wheat and flour for consumption and keep prices stable.

ICARDA also indicates that Afghanistan's problems may be geographical:

it may be that most Afghan wheat-growing areas are smaller and more compartmentalized topographically than in Pakistan; thus, "breakdown in variety resistance" may be less of an issue in the wheat-growing valleys and plains of Afghanistan.

US Wheat Traders says that the drought has continued for nearly five years and the Great Herat River has run dry. This is not only a problem for irrigating crops, but for milling the wheat into flour. More than 60% of all of Afghanistan's wheat is milled through water and wind driven mills with diesel engine driven mills being relatively new to the industry.

In April 2007, Robert I Rotberg, writing in the Boston Globe recommended:

Many Afghan officials have urged farmers to grow saffron or almonds instead of poppies. But the only viable substitute crop is wheat, an Afghan staple. Sometimes it is in short supply, too. If the West would guarantee above-market prices for wheat over 10 years, and establish a transparent method to buy unlimited quantities of wheat from Afghan farmers through an official marketing system, it is likely that Afghan farmers would gradually switch from poppies to wheat. And they could eat any wheat that becomes surplus. Furthermore, guaranteeing a high price for wheat would probably cost less than the billions devoted to eradication. It would also put more money than from poppies directly into the pockets of farmers and, simultaneously, cut out middlemen and traffickers.

The government would also have to improve or assist with methods of transporting wheat to mills and markets. Some transportation programs are already under development including a regional railroad tied to several Asian nations and an Afghan Railroad built by China as part of a deal for copper rights. However, both of these projects are years in the making and Afghanistan's problem is right now.

What is certain is, that until a viable substitute for poppy growing is found and implanted in Afghanistan, the trifecta of continuing war from opium profits, food shortages and general crime will continue to inflict instability on an already damaged population. That instability translates to long term commitments to both money and troops by NATO, the United States and various allies.

Until Afghanis can feel secure financially with legal activities and crops, drugs, war and crime will continue to pay. It may be that, until Afghanis are forced to concentrate on surviving on their own merits, they will continue to grow poppies, Afghanis will continue to grow hungry and the WFP will be forced to continue subsidizing Afghan's demise.