H&I* FIRES 21 JAN 2008

Time to put on your StrategyHat (TM)! Pre-emptive nuclear strike a key option, Nato told Granted, it's the Guardian, but it seems like a pretty serious article. John and some of the other commenters here have done a lot more serious thinking on proliferation issues than I have; so I'd like to hear what they think.

I think the world is engaged in a 3-faceted conflict vis-a-vis Islam: 1) A West vs Islam (in general) cultural and political struggle. "West" in this context includes the US, Europe, Japan, Israel, and sometimes Russia. 2) A "Moderate" Islam vs "radical, jihadist" Islamic/Islamist struggle. 3) A Sunni vs Shiite intra-religious struggle. Besides the existential threat that a nuclear Iran would pose to Israel and to American/Western interests in the region, a nuclear Iran under the control of hard-line Islamic Shiite clerics hell-bent on regional hegemony would also pose a serious threat to Saudi Arabia and to "moderate" Sunni states like Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, Egypt, etc. These countries, especially Saudi Arabia, would probably be compelled to accelerate their own nuclear weapons development programs to provide for their own security and deterrence against Iran's nukes. Unfortunately, most of these states also have very weak, unstable regimes that could be toppled fairly easily by radicals within their own borders who would be emboldened by an American withdrawal from Iraq and the region. As we see with Pakistan, if these nuclear states were to fall into the hands of radicals, they would become sanctuaries for jihadists who would use the relative safety there to hide after they attacked us. With no conventional means of bringing our enemies to "justice", we would be left with only the option of massive retaliatory air strikes, probably nuclear in nature. Our effort in Iraq was not only an action to rid us of the threat that Saddam posed himself, it is an important part of a larger strategy to deal with Iran and militant Islamists by trying to ensure that whatever "moderates" exist in the Muslim world prevail in their intra-Islam struggle with radical jihadists and their culture of death. We (the West) can not co-exist with radical Islamists who have already proved that they will come to our own shores to rain death and destruction upon us. If we have any hope of co-existing with Islam, it is only by ensuring that moderates prevail in the Muslims' own Reformation wars. None of this will be possible if we allow nuclear proliferation to occur within the Muslim world. Just my humble opinion.

John, I am so happy Gunner is doing ok and that you and SWWBO are doing well after such an ordeal... It was such a gripping story to read... Give Gunner a hug from me...

You are soliciting the 3rd ID? Wow, that's quite ambitious, Fuzzy! *ignores the feeble arrows of a jealous Maggie*