We're the Military and Airpower Guys of Jonah Goldberg of National Review Online + a stray we found wandering around looking lost. All original material JHD, BHD, JR, WT, and KA 2003-2010 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html Fri, 06 Jan 2012 18:32:29 Z Movable Type 4.12 en Copyright 2012 http://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification Wiggins dropped by, to see what we were chatting about in the 12 October H&I post where Ry linked to Opposed Systems Design. He left this comment. Thanks much for the link. I was being a bit harsh, so let me clarify myself. Mathematical laws of chemistry describe immutable dynamics of the physical world. I question whether combat has any similar immutable dynamics that are waiting to be mathematically modeled. The difference lies in the thinking adversary inherent in war, as opposed to the stable relationships of chemistry. Maybe the mathematics of dynamical systems offers a way to account for... http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html Mon, 15 Oct 2007 05:41:30 -0600 I just did a Rule 34 search on Google and got 323 hits for the string, Lanchester Operational Research porn. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65602 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65602 Tue, 16 Oct 2007 02:52:36 -0600 For what its worth, a noted School of Advanced Military Studies professor with a bent toward physics terms (like "poor dead" Karl had) told me that Lancester equations were OBE when they were devoloped. He thought they explained Napoleonic War and to a certain extent the American Civil War but they did not explain the Russo-Japanese War and certainly none since WWI. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65592 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65592 Mon, 15 Oct 2007 15:45:15 -0600 John was a miser. Yeah, right. That's why Bruce had a Golf Bag of Holding. *I'm* a Monty Hall. Feh. Bob Barker was my role model, and you know it, hoser. Yer still whining, 30 years later, about Bruce teleporting himself into a solid stone pillar in the caverns of the Frost Giant Jarl? Or izzit the time that he just flamewalled everything, and you were invisible, slinking around like the thief you are, and got whacked? Hmmmm. Methinks you should be annoyed with... Bruce. 8^ ) Even better - after 30 years, I remember all that, because watching you die was sooooooooooooooooo much fun!]]> http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65591 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65591 Mon, 15 Oct 2007 13:54:27 -0600 "Polymorph other spell"... Buahhawhawhaw... Good luck, it won't work and I know from personal experience. Now, while I won't say John 'cheated' as a DM, I will say that the results of certain encounters WERE predetermined. As the smoking ashes of a character of mine can attest. Oh, I'm sure there will be denials, but I know better. And as for EXP? Good luck, John was a miser. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65590 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65590 Mon, 15 Oct 2007 13:31:36 -0600 reinforcing (once again) the use of the proper tool for the proper job. stack the forces down the alleys when you draw the COA cartoons and do the math for the comparison and the decision matrix, always realizing that the cartoon and the math and the matrix are the tools. it's soldiers and units that will do it for real, and the paper version is never as good as the real way it shall unfold. ahh... Janus. and Artbass... the dank brink warrens of Leavenworth and the stuffy attic of the Abrams Bldg in Frankfurt. good times, good times. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65588 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65588 Mon, 15 Oct 2007 13:19:42 -0600 Chill -- I FedExed the cheez curls. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65586 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65586 Mon, 15 Oct 2007 12:08:46 -0600 My work is done. I have returned John to proper geeked out form without having to use a polymorph other spell. My EXP please. Now if I could just get Armorer to give me a reading list on this field(sort of a beginners course) I might shut up for a few months, wouldn't that make you all happy? http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65585 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65585 Mon, 15 Oct 2007 11:45:52 -0600 ...the one with the reduced functionality, is what we loaded on your machines. Tell them to upgrade the 2.75 inchers on the MD530s to Hydra 70 (Mach 3+ and they're almost as accurate as gunfire) -- don't let 'em tell ya they can't. ]]> http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65584 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65584 Mon, 15 Oct 2007 11:25:02 -0600 Actually, I'm pleased to find that the local installation no longer blocks the Castle. I've won *some* fights. And we're in a "Oh, gosh, the wrong software, the one with the reduced functionality, is what we loaded on your machines. Darn it!" Our response in not printable, as it would violate the Rulez in several dimensions. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65582 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65582 Mon, 15 Oct 2007 10:56:12 -0600 Have fun chewing on this, I probably won't be able to respond to anything until tonight. Wha' hoppen, the TOC Ticks toss you out early? "Just put Extended Range Tanks on the Predator and cycle the B-2s in every fifteen minutes, then bring in a couple of MD500s with some MPs to corral the survivors. Tuttle sez that's how *he'd* do it." "Get. Out. Now."]]> http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65581 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65581 Mon, 15 Oct 2007 10:33:02 -0600 Yo, John -- you sent me ry's stale cheez curls. I'm supposed to get the stale chex party mix... http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65580 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65580 Mon, 15 Oct 2007 10:20:49 -0600 And I wonder how many people get past the first paragraph of this post without going into MEGO* status. Heh. This is what this place would be like if I hadn't hired Tuttle. Oh, yeah - yer check's in the mail, dude. ;^) *My Eyes Glaze Over http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65578 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65578 Mon, 15 Oct 2007 09:42:30 -0600 While I was an O/C at the NTC during Desert Shield we built the Iraqi obstacle belts, manned 'em with OPFOR, and then attacked 'em again and again, until we developed ways to reduce them with literally no casualties. We made a movie about it. And the guys who would actually have to do it watched our movie, and threw up, because it involved a *lot* of getting to within hand-grenade range. They promptly went and developed ways to do it that allowed for much more stand-off, and utilized weapons in way we didn't think of, because the safety considerations of doing it live, force-on-force kind of turned off that part of our brains. So, while I stand by the approach we took and the solution we came up with - it's most salutary was to keenly focus the minds of the guys who were going to have to do it for real on the fact that "There's no way in hell we're going to do it that way!" and they developed the TTPs they did which were, I freely admit, much better than ours. I learned more about training to fight in that event and it's aftermath than the entire rest of my career. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65577 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65577 Mon, 15 Oct 2007 09:40:58 -0600 Say hello to my little friend, Janus. Our then-Battalion CO gave ten of us Fulltimers a briefing on the horrendously horrendous, triangular forts within triangular forts the Iraqis had built and the layered minefields and AT ditches protecting them before he came out with the infamous 10K casualty estimate. He looked totally dumbfounded when I raised my hand and said, "Arc Light. The only casualties you'll have will be from guys falling into the bomb craters." "They won't use B-52s. They can't survive in the High-Threat Environment of missiles and MiGs." "They did pretty well over North Vietnam." He finished the briefing and spent the next half hour on the phone -- "Well, plug it in as a DivArty linear target!" ]]> http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65575 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/10/lanchester_use.html#comment-65575 Mon, 15 Oct 2007 07:36:17 -0600