Iran And Syria: Heavy Handed Chess

The United States and Saudi Arabia are working behind the scenes to try to take pressure off of the Lebanese government and allow them the opportunity to choose their president. This may be one of the reasons that Syria was invited to the latest round of Middle East Peace talks. Syria is using Hezbollah as a battering ram, not only to force control issues within Lebanon for economic security, but also as its proxy force against continued incursions by Israel against potential weapons sites.

Last weeks report indicated that Israel had struck a potential nuclear site, though details have not been verified. Around the same time, a Sarin filled missile had exploded during loading, killing 200. It's clear that Israel believes it may be in direct confrontation with Hezbollah in the near future and has decided to either neutralize Syrian capabilities to support Hezbollah or was sending them a warning about their continued support.

Syria is playing it as if the Israeli AF struck nothing but desert and is attempting to pull Damascus into a broader fight. This report continues to play Syria as a victim who is seeking peace with Israel, but continuously rebuffed, "forcing" Syria into an "uncomfortable embrace" with Iran. In two sentences, however, the report also notes that Syria was at a recent arms show in Moscow purchasing air defense missiles and anti-tank weapons allegedly responsible for Hezbollah checking Israel's ground invasion of Lebanon. This weapons build up has been taking place along the Lebanon and Israeli border prompting Israeli forces to beef up security in the Golan Heights.

Despite Israel's attack on an as yet verified target, Israel's defense minister says that Israel is not planning to go to war with Syria.

A major problem with Syrian politics is that it continues to be extremely heavy handed. On one hand, obviously being a conduit for arms to Iran and Hezbollah, outright assassinations of Lebanese politicians to bizarre heavy handed overtures to the US by assassinating known Al Qaida facilitators in Syria or the hand over of the leader of the Al Qaida affiliate Fatah al-Islam in Lebanon by Hezbollah to the Lebanese army.

Of course, Syria does nothing that is not also in its own interests. While the Ba'athist party controls Damascus, it is run by a largely Alawite tribe of Shia. The Sunni tribes in Syria have routinely attempted to rise against the Ba'athist Socialist government and been brutally put down.

The death of the cleric known as Abu Al Qaqa may have other connotations. Al Qaqa is widely believed to have co-founded Jihad and Tawheed in Iraq (later Al Qaida in Iraq) with Zarqawi and may have not only facilitated fighters into Iraq, but Zarqawi agents into Syria. Al Qaqa had given many speeches in support of the Islamists in Iraq. However, as far back as 2004, an Islamist website had claimed that Al Qaqa was, in fact, a spy that gave Syrian intelligence forces information on the "mujihadeen" going into Iraq resulting in their capture or death.

Reports on Al Qaqa indicate that he had "moderated" his speeches after being gone for a year to places unknown (his followers were told he went to Chechnya and Afghanistan) and was given a job as a teacher at a state run Islamic school. His killer was detained shortly after the shooting. He is identified as a mujihadeen who had been recently released from a US prison in Iraq. He claims he shot Al Qaqa because he was a traitor. Either way, it works well for Syria. Possible Islamic extremist threat is eliminated and blamed on "Zionist-Americans" as either the reaping of a traitor or the possibility that the recently released assassin was brain washed in American prison or repaying his debt for release. Thus, keeping the internal unrest at a minimum while the US is given a "goat" to prove Syria's sincerity in assisting with minimizing insurgent transit to Iraq.

Syria has other concerns outside of its physical security and not totally related to its relationship with Iran. This is what prompts it to play at schizophrenic politics. On one hand, responding to overtures to curb Al Qaida transition to Iraq while pushing the accelerator on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

In the previous post on Iran and Syria, Syria's need for Lebanon to open its economy to Syrian exports and its ports to Syrian oil pipelines is taking on a new urgency as it attempts some economic reforms, such as decreasing subsidies on olive oil, tea and gasoline, to improve its situation. However, foreign investment has decreased since US sanctions put in place in 2003 and a myriad of other woes continue to inflict economic pain.

Syria's economy has relied heavily on oil and agricultural exports. In recent months, Syria's wheat production has fallen significantly due to a shortage in rain fall. This coupled with the rise in consumption due to an influx of approximately 1 million Iraqi refugees caused Syria to cancel all exports of wheat. Oil production has decreased from a high of 560k bpd to 360k bpd. Syria has sought multiple avenues to exploit the rise in oil prices to maintain its viability while simultaneously decreasing gasoline subsidies to citizens and planning "smart card" rationing that Iran has been using for nearly six months.

Both Iran and Syria are net importers of gasoline and both have gasoline subsidies in place. Both nations are attempting to reduce consumption with the ration cards in order to reduce the drain on the dwindling public coffers.

Another problem for Syria is that its private sector is considered highly corrupt. With the additional problem that socialist economies have: the rich appear to be getting very rich while the rest of the country is poor as church mice. They are alternately squeezed by Palestinian refugees and Iraqi refugees. That can sometimes lead to serious rumblings at the ground level.

Iran has also recently invested 270 million in building projects in Syria. This is either an attempt to continue to buy Syrian compliance for Hezbollah and Iranian weapons transit or an attempt to prop up a collapsing ally. Or, both.

It's important to remember that Hezbollah is not the sole creature of Syria. It is an Iranian creature, as reported by Smith. Iran has a vested interest in turning up the Hezbollah pain in Lebanon as well. Aside from the possibility of an Iranian oil pipeline through Iraq, Syria and into the Lebanese ports, the potential for a Hezbollah attack in Israel or actually overthrowing the Lebanese government, is one of Iran's own very heavy handed attempts to reduce pressure on their own country.

The United States, France and Britain had agreed on sanctions against Iran and was pressuring Germany to join more fully. In last weeks report, Germany was attempting to discern how to join the sanctions and deal with the loss of revenue that was likely to follow. China and Russia were refusing to join the sanctions but signaled their concerns to Iran on questions over the nuclear situation.. Iran was given two more months to respond before other sanctions were in place.

Recent reports indicate, however, that sanctions were continuing to have even more devastating impact on the Iranian economy, even as Ahmadinejad was shaking hands with Chavez in Venezuela and loaning money for construction projects, even loaning money to Syria for the same, the internal situation in Iran is getting serious. Main food export and import companies were starting to shut down or slowing imports because they have to work with cash. They are literally carrying around hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash because no bank will give them credit outside of Iran.

As noted in the previous post on Brinkmanship, Iran has been moving its ministers around and placing hardliners in strategic political positions to stop any potential opposition from delaying their plans.

It's clear that sanctions are, indeed, having the desired effect on the Iranian economy. But, Iran has long considered Hezbollah in Lebanon it's best pawn in offsetting criticisms and demands from outside. Iran and Syria have vested interests in Hezbollah take over of Lebanon or at least in making the situation so terrible that they can win concessions.

Iran believes that the ME and the West are so concerned over the potential for regional instability after the Iraq situation that it can rock the Hezbollah boat and blackmail their way into a decrease in sanctions and an acceptance of their nuclear future. Syria, of course, wants to return as Lebanon's "protector" with all the benefits that entails.

Hezbollah does nothing without orders from Syria and Iran. That is a fact. Without the money, protection and arms from these two countries, Hezbollah does not exist.

Update: Edited for sake of reducing speculation of the known fires. However, original comment stangs: Hezbollah is an Iranian and Syrian proxy. It is doubtful either of these nations would risk an outright attack on the US or Israel. They would use their proxies first. The Palestinians have the "ultimate moral authority" and that protects Iran and Syria until the world decides it is no longer a sham worth carrying on.