We're the Military and Airpower Guys of Jonah Goldberg of National Review Online + a stray we found wandering around looking lost. All original material JHD, BHD, JR, WT, and KA 2003-2007 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/09/hi_fires_17_sep.html Tue, 23 Sep 2008 17:14:37 Z Movable Type 4.12 en Copyright 2008 http://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification Open post for those with something to share, updated through the day. New, complete posts come in below this one. Note: If trackbacking, please acknowledge this post in your post. That's only polite. You're advertising here, we should get an ad at your place... ********************************** Just a question that’s been rattling around in my head that first roused itself when I couldn’t sleep back in CA (it was fargin’ hot even at night, not as hot as what Chief Bill was putting up with but more than 90) and had been reading Julian Corbett’s Principles of Maritime Strategy. Why is... http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/09/hi_fires_17_sep.html http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/09/hi_fires_17_sep.html Mon, 17 Sep 2007 23:39:57 -0600 Oh, Ry, I don't think that China will move any day soon, maybe never. I really believe that it is about national security for them and that includes trade and energy resources. If they thought that was threatened, I believe that they would move. However, that threat does not exist at that time. Mind you, I don't mean just threatened physically by another army. I mean threatened in the sense that other nations out strip them economically and they are no longer able to compete or if their economy outstrips their ability to obtain it or if they think that the physical presence of any nation directly interferes with their ability to obtain the necessary food, clothing, technology or energy resources. Mind you, I think that the Chinese will be more apt to try to negotiate or work economically to manage this, but they will want their military to be able to defend or enforce their agreements. As far as Taiwan, the repeated practice runs appear nothing more than reminders that Taiwan must remain at least in limbo if not under their control. I believe, as much as we would see a move on Taiwan as an act of war they would see Taiwanese independence and recognition of such as an act of war. Speaking of which, I just read that the UN has turned down Taiwan's request to me admitted as a legitimate nation to the UN. Sec Gen. Ban said that there was no "legal" basis for recognizing Taiwan as such a state. It's funny, isn't it, that now freedom is a legal matter and not one of self realization? http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/09/hi_fires_17_sep.html#comment-64516 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/09/hi_fires_17_sep.html#comment-64516 Tue, 18 Sep 2007 23:54:05 -0600 If you watch China like I do you know that their armed forces are shrinking in the neighborhood of 15% and that they're pushing quality over quantity since the last days of Deng in the military ministry(anyone remember the worry of Chinese Silkworm missiles? I do.). They're working at having real, professional NCOs in all services instead of using the Soviet model of impressing somewhat smarter kids, sending them to special schools at enlistment, and poof instant NCO. All of this while they've got their carrier program working (095 I think), building newer subs(some with AIP) and planes(some indigenous designs and stuff on license from the Russians). They are looking to move beyond just their frontiers in military capability. Have been doing so for, oh, about 15 years now. It's just a little superficial an analysis. I know lots of people see it that way, but that's because they only glance at the problem instead of stare at it. (Which is why I'm surprised Kat is thinking I've gone all squishy over resisting a PRC move against Taiwan---hello, who's the guy who posts all the 'String of Pearls' articles? Okay, I'm also the guy who links to the Barnett stuff around here too. There's room for confusion.) There's just so much out there to disabuse anyone of the idea of a 'Red Horde waiting to overwhelm everyone' that I can't buy it. ANd even that 'human tidal wave' in Korea wasn't very accurate, the template seems to be an attack in the center to get the attention of everyone while stuff slipped to the flanks and rear. More an artifact of reporters than actual on the ground reality---if historians are to be believed(and I bank on one in particular). http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/09/hi_fires_17_sep.html#comment-64482 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/09/hi_fires_17_sep.html#comment-64482 Tue, 18 Sep 2007 14:35:28 -0600 let us think of a conflict in terms of blue - red mass on mass. It serves them well to do so. Images are easily conjured of past engagements with the Chinese in Korea. Yalu River and Hordes of bugle playing china men made Stalingrad look like a skirmish. The Chinese know there image in a conflcit is MASS. It makes sense to telegraph that punch while planning an entirely different scenario. The Cold War MAD theory will work with the chinese on territorial integrity, but I believe they would rational that a few nukes here or there in someone elses back yard will be acceptable collateral. Their actions in Darfur certainly show that they have little regard for world opinion.]]> http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/09/hi_fires_17_sep.html#comment-64466 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/09/hi_fires_17_sep.html#comment-64466 Tue, 18 Sep 2007 01:30:09 -0600 Yanno, we didn't get a whole lot of commenting today... but content-wise, this has been a really good day! Thanks, guys!~ http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/09/hi_fires_17_sep.html#comment-64452 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/09/hi_fires_17_sep.html#comment-64452 Mon, 17 Sep 2007 18:32:56 -0600 How did I know that was going to come up? I actually thought about it right after I posted number two section. I'll await Ry's response keeping in mind that he commented positively on the "importance of being taiwan" sometime in the past. thus, like all political commenters on the web, may come back to haunt him. ;) http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/09/hi_fires_17_sep.html#comment-64448 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/09/hi_fires_17_sep.html#comment-64448 Mon, 17 Sep 2007 16:21:59 -0600 Heh. Ry, you and Kat prolly need to do a separate post vice making the H&I a three mile scroll... http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/09/hi_fires_17_sep.html#comment-64446 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/09/hi_fires_17_sep.html#comment-64446 Mon, 17 Sep 2007 15:33:56 -0600 Aiiieee Fuzzy! Check fire! No blue on blue attacks please! (Goes and spreads bactene on Al's back, daaang those claws are naaaaassssty.). I don't think Al meant what he said the way you're taking it. A real case of speaking past one another. (Why do I feel like I'm about to die? As if I'm standing in the crosshairs of something nasty that I can't see.) Response to Kat is going to have to be long and ugly. I'm not ignoring it, but there's some issues that need to be dealt with. But thanks for even considering it. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/09/hi_fires_17_sep.html#comment-64445 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/09/hi_fires_17_sep.html#comment-64445 Mon, 17 Sep 2007 15:26:57 -0600