We're the Military and Airpower Guys of Jonah Goldberg of National Review Online + a stray we found wandering around looking lost. All original material JHD, BHD, JR, WT, and KA 2003-2010 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html Sat, 24 Mar 2012 15:44:05 Z Movable Type 4.12 en Copyright 2012 http://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification Lex has a nice, thoughtful post up over at his place. Okay, d-uh. Let's try again - Lex has a post up at his place that is a response to Skippy-san. Skippy-san is a serving (retired?) sailor and war sceptic. Since Lex mentioned me, and someone pointed out the post to me, well, I thought I ought to go read what calumny that double-whammy (sailor *and* aviator) was spreading about yours truly. So should you. Click here. Prolly oughta read the comments, too. I decided to weigh in, since I kinda occupy the middle ground between Skippy and Lex (heh,... http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html Thu, 01 Feb 2007 07:21:18 -0600 Sanger - LOL at your coolness scale. Gulp... I just realized I should have DESCENDING order of "coolness." And did you notice I, ahem, didn't have any Navy stuff on there? musta slipped my mnd :-) ]]> http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56102 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56102 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 16:54:58 -0600 > Getting 'psyched out' and withdrawing, not because you are actually on the cusp of failing, but because you think you are. Tet '68 ring a bell here? Personally, I just don't think we've killed enough of the bad guys yet, and we ought to make up for that by shooting one person from Guantanamo every time Arkin pens another article or Kerry or Carter open their mouths. Then we can all blame them since it'll be their actions that cause all the death. Certainly that seems to be the kind of logic they understand. I'm just disgusted with the lot of them... And I'm not real thrilled with the other side either, but that's like the difference between stepping in mud and stepping in dog crap. The Republicans can be messy, but they don't smell bad, and all it takes to clean things up is a little time. Dems... Well, that's like living in a Saint Bernard Yard, except a St. Bernard is actually useful. ,,, http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56101 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56101 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 16:43:41 -0600 This is number one!]]> http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56100 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56100 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 16:30:31 -0600 You know guys, I always seem to be too busy with work to participate anymore in these discussions. But I guess I just wanted to say how much I am enjoying 'listening in' on this one. Sometimes by the end of the work day I am just brain dead and have nothing left. Anyway, thanks :) http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56098 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56098 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 16:09:25 -0600 pull out now and it will be another Julian at the Gates of Ctesiphon situation. snatching that defeat right out of the jaws of victory. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56096 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56096 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 14:51:46 -0600 However, I suddenly can't help but wonder if various assets have been assigned to keeping track as best they can of where in 'the South' these undesirables are concentrating themselves. One reason we haven't been able to root them out of the great city of Bagdhad is that it is a great city - far too big and 'fragile' (in terms of collateral damage) for the task. Small villages far out in the desert, however... Probably just wishful thinking on my part, but I have to hope that if I'm smart enough to think of it then the much smarter folks actually out at the sharp end of the stick are too. Oh - and I can't go read the item at Lex's - according to our firewall it's a "Games" site.]]> http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56094 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56094 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 14:26:57 -0600 Well, as long as you understand, when I say "Stalingrad", I mean the basic tactics of withdrawing from an area, drawing in the forces and then, yes, encircling and isolating them within areas of Baghdad and taking them, either by force or by stealth. No, I don't think we're about to bomb Baghdad to the ground. Not quite "Fallujah" because, yes, I hope we learned how to take apart a city without, you know, "taking it apart". One thing about the tactic of announcing the action is the effect of "dispersal" of the enemy. Which sometimes gives you the ability to round them up under less egregious circumstances but also creates a cycling down effect. Many would end up staying in Baghdad and being taken and there would be a continuing limited force (though re-enforced from, hopefully, a cycling down outside recruitment). Of course, the announcement also serves as the "out" for these forces. I believe it was Sun Tzu that said if you corner an enemy, he may feel the need to fight even more ferociously since he has no way to exit the battlefield and has no onus to negotiate. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56093 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56093 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 14:15:07 -0600 > Sanger, by contrast, is just brilliant. And 'Spite, too. "now I wonder what he meant by that....?" In order of "coolness" (based on the number of boxtops you get for trading in a branch insignia badge): SOF Cavalry Armor Aviation Infantry (Mech!) Air Assault ADA (not the program language) Engineer (Combat) MEDDAC MI (only the EW/ECM folks) Ordnance Artillery Trans . . . . Anything Air Force (except that Special ops folks) . I forget any? :-) http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56092 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56092 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 14:01:53 -0600 Murphy's Law and the Law of Unintended Consequences will always rule: what can go wrong often does, and some of the best intended plans have negative repercussions downstream that no one can foresee. Failure to act is often just as costly, or more so, as precipitous action in the long-term. We have every right to expect our leaders to learn from history and to make the best, most informed policy decisions they can at any given time. However, it's naive and unrealistic of us to expect leaders to be perfect, error-free, or clairvoyant. Just who among us is? It would be great if we could all just "get along" with no need for war. But we don't live in that Utopia, and human conflict is ever-present. If effective diplomacy were all that was required for peaceful conflict resolution, then our oh-so-"sophisticated", "nuanced", and "intellectually superior" multilateral French, German, Russian, Chinese and European cousins - with their combined centuries of diplomatic experience - would never have needed our assistance in their colonial and world wars, nor would they maintain their own militaries today. All wars are elective. We either choose to do nothing and allow our adversaries to kill or enslave us, or we choose to take whatever action is necessary to defend ourselves and control our own destiny.]]> http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56088 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56088 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 13:33:00 -0600 As long as we understand *my* use of Stalingrad was in the manner of reinforcing failure... not as a prescription for Baghdad. Many times, when things are at an equilibrium tactically, it is the *perception* of reinforcing failure that is the killer. Getting 'psyched out' and withdrawing, not because you are actually on the cusp of failing, but because you think you are. Therein lies a great danger with us. Unfortunately, you only know the true answer ex post facto. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56085 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56085 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 12:50:14 -0600 Strategic ambush is one thing, but Stalingrad is something else. Leveling just about everything, every wrecked building becoming a hard point, fighting to the very last man. That's Stalingrad. I hope we aren't doing that. Being smart and bringing them into nice killzones to be crushed in a decisive battle? Si. Stalingrad? No. From a hearts and minds perspective it's way too costly, in my useless opinion. True, Skippy-san is retired. But he's like John. He's got a finger in the pie. Just not wearing dress whites while he does it. I disagree on Skip on his argument. The guy's cool with me in other respects(he's the True Otaku King). http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56083 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56083 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 12:26:57 -0600 Well, I outlined my points on the blog and linked to it. Yep, I'm a war supporter. I thought Saddam should have been gone a long time ago. For many reasons listed above by many folks. And, frankly, I'm worried about where the WMD went to. On top of that, something I said before, besides Iraq being the "low lying fruit" taking pot shots at us from our flanks, if you're going to kill the beast of Islamist Fruitballs, you stab it in the heart. No, they didn't come from Baghdad, but Baghdad is historically the capital of most of the Caliphates these folks think they're going to set up. Nothing like putting a democracy (a Shia dominated, American friendly democracy) right in the heart of ye Olde Caliphate. Of course, I can't tell a lie. While I did expect some AQ folks to show up for the party, I did not expect this insanity. Still, I disagree on abandoning Iraq for many reasons, not the least of which is "finish the job". Abandoning Iraq could lead to the great inter-regional war everyone was pronouncing would begin when we went in, inlcuding the AQ cracks. I don't think that is in our best interests or the worlds for that matter. Even if it doesn't go to direct conflict, war posturing inter-regional states make the area unstable and thus makes oil prices soar, thus making the economy stink for us and the rest of the oil guzzling world. Then there is the whole "abandon Iraq to Iranian hegemony". So they can threaten the Saudis and we're back to putting troops on the ground for long term, thus ticking off the general populace? Or, so they can have a nice voting block in OPEC, decreasing oil production and increasing the price so Iran can get really wealthy and really build up its military and nuclear capabilities? ANd, finally, I really, really don't want to leave the Iraqis to the tender mercies of the nutballs. Not to mention, the number of refugees that would flood out of that country. Or the possibility that it will turn into the local proxy war for all the crazies and the states that sponsor them. Again, creating instability in the region and possibly, as many times said, a nice long term training ground for terrorists who branchout to the local region and beyond. It's just too crazy to contemplate. But, John mentioned "Stalingrad". I've thought about that analogy a lot in the past two years. Largely because we used the same tactics in Fallujah...withdraw to the outskirts, suck the enemy in and then surrounded the city before going in and killing the enemy. It's a harsh tactic. We did it in Mosul, too. It almost sounds like we are about to "Stalingrad" Baghdad. Yes, I'm waiting impatiently for the right moves to bring this to an end, but I am not going to get sucked in to the "all is lost" crowd when it's clear that Iraq is no where near lost on the ground, just in the "hearts and minds" of the American people. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56081 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56081 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 11:38:42 -0600 Uh-oh, Skippy. You're losing your base. Maggie actually likes, no, make that lusts, sailors! http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56080 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56080 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 11:27:47 -0600 BadgersForward). It's criminal to wish them anything but success. Who thinks things would be better in Baghdad if today we pulled back to the borders? Who thinks things would be better in Baghdad if we loaded up and brought everyone back to CONUS? Yeah, that's what I thought. So, while discussion is good and difeerent POVs are good. Skippy wears on me.]]> http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56078 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56078 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 11:02:07 -0600 Just be careful where Skippy takes you for that beer. Bad for the heart and CINCHOUSE relations... http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56077 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56077 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 10:51:50 -0600 John, a small point of correction. While Lex is still currently serving; Skippy -- not so much any more. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56076 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56076 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 10:18:51 -0600 "Unlike many of my fan base, who are all for invading some things." I may resemble that remark. There's reasons for that. Some of them even shared by all the writers so far in this discussion, and some not. But that's a story for a different day. My problem with Skippy-san on this is the 'results' line. This will sound unfair, but it sounds overly fair-weather-fan to me. If we're winning it's okay, but if we're 'losing'/treading water it wasn't worth it? If it had been done spectacularly would Skippy-san be more in favor of it than he is now that it hasn't gone perfectly? I also have a problem with the 'direct democracy' element to Skippy's argument. So should we have let the public decide whether to keep going after showing them a film of Tarawa? The public is fickle. Even the 'direct democracy' of Athens knew enough to make a decision and have unity of command afterwards: Pericles. Look at the results of abandoning Pericles' plan had on Athens? The fickleness is a problem. Most people don't have time to get into the depths of the issue. The time for the democratic decision making was before the war. The full year of talking about it when the fickle public had a chance to research it to death before telling their congress critter how they wanted that critter to vote. Not now. The Greeks did vote during the Anabasis. But they didn't vote in the midst of a battle though. We're in the midst of a battle. Like others, I too am sick of the death and destruction Iraq has wrought. I personally feel responsible for it since I've often written in favor of the invasion. My decisions have resulted in fatherless kids, men who will live forever with the ramifications. I've helped create another generation of people who will sleep little because in some of their nightmares the bullets don't miss. That's the cost of any and all wars. Not just this one. IF that's the complaint, then there's no reason to fight any wars. Failure to accomplish goals is a poor reason to argue against it, post hoc. Maybe pre-invasion but not post. It speaks little to the reasons for going, the morality of going. But the reasoning was sound even if the execution was not. I take pride in that. The reasons, and there were many, made sense. They still make sense. You don't end a cancer by ignoring it. Iraq was the lowest lying fruit. Hard power there(the cutting of tumors, and Iraq was a tumor) and reap the benefits of the soft power it then generates(the chemo and rad treatments---long term change inducers) to influence the rest of the region. BArnett calls this the Big Bang. The soft power that acts as the chemo against the totalitarianism and terrorism generating regimes is in the US interest. If indirect. The reasoning still makes sense. John's objections made sense then and they make sense now(nobody is willing to put the effort in long enough to do the job right. Nobody wants to play the game for all sixty minutes--not in Iraq, and not against the rising threats in the Pacific either. They want a blow out and a mercy rule victory. What they believe was the case of the Balkans campaign.). http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56075 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56075 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 10:03:58 -0600 And MajMike... well, you, you, you can just be wrong. But hey, you started life as a 'tard, er, tanker, so we'll just employ the tyranny of soft expectations regards your opinion... Sanger, by contrast, is just brilliant. And 'Spite, too. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56072 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56072 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 09:34:19 -0600 "We're taking him out because we're sick and tired of him etc etc and 17 UN Violations" I would have been a much happier Spite. Was it a dangerous ideal we undertook? Absolutely, and something that hasn't been done in over a century, the complete removal of a ruling party and placement of a leader from "the people" to take up the banner. I won't list the hundreds of issue's, chief among them in my view the complete lack of a rebel leader for the people to rally to because of the years of oppression. The rebels were dead. But in the end the bottom line, in my mind, is we have taken the field. Once our soldiers set foot on the field we are honor bound to support them to victory. The American citizens have not heard this call, we have entered no rationing, no drive to help build, nothing like the days of old...say 1943. The citizenship as a whole have become a people of microwave tastes and 30 second attention span. The war should have been done, complete and the whole mess fixed in time for the next commercial featuring Bob and his goofy smile. And that concerns me. Greatly. Ironically Osama, I think was correct when saying we do not have the stomach for war anymore. The once military expansionist empire built upon soldiers, patriots, and adventure's that won the West and the lands that now make up America are gone, and replaced with coach potatoes, Black Hawk Down video games and rhetoric of "Whats in it for me?" It seems my comment has turned in to a rant, and that was not my intention. But it weighs heavy on mind, and I can't help , sardonically mind you not realistically, if our great "empire" like so many before it is coming to a close in the archives of history? Are we doomed to tear our selves apart because of the differences placed upon our ideals? Or are we merely...dare I say it...lazy? I'm with you John. I wasn't crazy about the idea of invasion. The historical precedents are rife with failure and success on such a hit or miss scale you almost have to roll dice to pick your odds. That said Saddam was evil, and evil no matter the name should be removed in my black and white world. I'll end my rant by saying it's not a black & white world no matter how hard I wish it, but merely shades of grey, and in the last year, it's becoming darker.]]> http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56071 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56071 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 09:29:54 -0600 i commented over at Lex's place. squid that he is, i gotta say i'm with him on this one. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56065 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56065 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 08:36:13 -0600 very nice... http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56063 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2007/02/as_a_serving_mi.html#comment-56063 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 08:09:51 -0600