We're the Military and Airpower Guys of Jonah Goldberg of National Review Online + a stray we found wandering around looking lost. All original material JHD, BHD, JR, WT, and KA 2003-2010 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/08/an_alternative_view_of_the_recent_mess_in_lebanon.html Sat, 24 Mar 2012 15:49:12 Z Movable Type 4.12 en Copyright 2012 http://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification ...who am I kidding - current mess. Amir Taheri, in the WSJ: By controlling the flow of information from Lebanon throughout the conflict, and help from all those who disagree with U.S. policies for different reasons, Hezbollah may have won the information war in the West. In Lebanon, the Middle East and the broader Muslim space, however, the picture is rather different. Politically, however, Hezbollah had to declare victory for a simple reason: It had to pretend that the death and desolation it had provoked had been worth it. A claim of victory was Hezbollah's shield against criticism of a... http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/08/an_alternative_view_of_the_recent_mess_in_lebanon.html http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/08/an_alternative_view_of_the_recent_mess_in_lebanon.html Fri, 25 Aug 2006 07:13:47 -0600 When haven't people crowed victory afterwards? And given the rather public self immolation that the Israeli's are doing right now it feeds the image. The most fertile ground is between the ears. Otherwise this was rather inconclusive as a military battle. PR war? Oh man, Hezbo got a ton of hay outta this. And they're getting tons out of the aftermath as well(NPR was gushing about how IRan and Hezbollah were doing so much to repair LEbanon while the US, Lebanon, and Israel had little to give.). They succeded in improving their image in the world and have secured new lines of finance because they 'succeeded in repulsing Israel(yeah, then why are we talking about Israel turning territory over to a third party? Sounds like they moved you off your hill, jackalopes.)'. This soooo sucks. But I think round two is just around the corner. 18 months. Next time I don't think Israel can afford to do the 'ebo lite' thing. They'll go back to what they do best. With elan. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/08/an_alternative_view_of_the_recent_mess_in_lebanon.html#comment-49703 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/08/an_alternative_view_of_the_recent_mess_in_lebanon.html#comment-49703 Sat, 26 Aug 2006 00:20:29 -0600 When trying to sort out the winner in this mess, we also need to look at the effect that this war will have on future Israeli responses. Hezbollah was clearly trying to make Israel think twice about fighting back effectively after the next unprovoked attack (which will come). The scariest thing most of the Arab nations can imagine is an Israel that is unafraid to commit to total war, because Israel has that discouraging habit of winning. Anything that will dampen that "win or die" attitude is good for Hezbollah and their sponsors. In terms of this goal, the terrorists probably lost by a large degree. The Israelis seem unhappy that Olmert was so restrained this time around, and it is probably a safe bet that his successor will feel very empowered to 'take the gloves off,' as it were. Hezbollah stands little chance against a determined and well-trained enemy like Israel, and even less of a chance if their state-actor supporters (Iran &C) decide that Hezbollah is going to provoke an Israeli response against THEM. As for the UN resolution being a joke, I think it is too, but that joke can play both ways. Hezbollah might hide behind French soldiers, sure. But I don't think a determined Israel is going to find those soldiers much of a deterrent if they feel their national security is at stake. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/08/an_alternative_view_of_the_recent_mess_in_lebanon.html#comment-49692 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/08/an_alternative_view_of_the_recent_mess_in_lebanon.html#comment-49692 Fri, 25 Aug 2006 15:26:07 -0600 Oh, and don't mention the fact that Syria is saying "No foreign troops on our borders." Translation: No interdicting our re-supply effort. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/08/an_alternative_view_of_the_recent_mess_in_lebanon.html#comment-49688 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/08/an_alternative_view_of_the_recent_mess_in_lebanon.html#comment-49688 Fri, 25 Aug 2006 13:42:58 -0600 Too much declaring victory and defeat for my liking. The ME is complex and the event will take quite some time to play out as it mixes with all the regional crap. The 15,000 aren't even in yet so the war isn't exactly over. France is leading. hahahahaha [pops valium]. They are leading talk on the troops being too many, giving up before they've even started. And whatever you do don't mention disarmament. We're rebuilding, offering medical aid and er stuff. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/08/an_alternative_view_of_the_recent_mess_in_lebanon.html#comment-49687 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/08/an_alternative_view_of_the_recent_mess_in_lebanon.html#comment-49687 Fri, 25 Aug 2006 13:38:47 -0600 Frankly, I don't think the political outcome can be measured at this time. If we look at it from the perspectrive of continuing battles in the war on terror and the proxy war with Iran, it had material purpose. Whether anyone admits it or not, it most likely disrupted a number of organizational aspects of hezballah and will force them to spend a fair amount of their limited resources in rebuilding everything from material resources such as weapons, to personnel structures, networks and even more so, the services and monetary handouts that they were providing to a rather captive audience in the state within the state. As I've noted more than once, medievil conquerer's would routinely burn down the cottages and store houses of the resisters in order to force them to concentrate on survival instead of warfare. Secondly, I would agree that, while it may not improve Isreael's relationship with Lebanon, it certainly made the lebanese set up and take notice that this shadow government and state within their borders could not be ignored ; that it threatened not just their internal political situation but the stability and future of a peaceful, democratic and prosperous Lebanon. it does sadden me that so many people I was essentially hoping could turn Lebanon around, who, in the last year since the cedar revolution gave me such hope for the region, yet, it is a painful reminder that even a democracy cannot expect a pass when a large part of it's population acts in a manner contrary to the security of the state without regard to it's people's wishes or the sanctity of an elected government. It's neither victory nor defeat. Just another battle. I am interested in the Israeli response preparing to crucify their leaders for lack of a "clear victory". I am not sure what people expected. Were they looking for a surrender by Hezballah? Did they think they would do limited warfare and capture seasoned guerilla leaders? I mean, short of declaring war on the whole of Lebanon, bombing it to pieces and occupying it, what did they want? This was simply another battle in the ongoing war of attritionthat has existed for over 50 years. In this case, they did what many nations have done: used an ongoing plitical situation as an excuse to to take a bite out of continuing harassing forces. The best thing about it for us, as ugly as it seems, Iran and others will now have to split their monetary "assistance" between multiple proxy theaters, rival political and terrorist groups from Afghanistan, Iraq and on to Gaza, the west bank and Lebanon. Let's see how many shaped charges they can keep shipping and how many agents they can spread between these multiple theaters. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/08/an_alternative_view_of_the_recent_mess_in_lebanon.html#comment-49660 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/08/an_alternative_view_of_the_recent_mess_in_lebanon.html#comment-49660 Fri, 25 Aug 2006 08:56:37 -0600