The Zarqawi Video... a slightly different look.

John - I thought the same thing. It even occurred to me that he probably handles an AK-47 just fine. But even if not, as you say, he's not the grunt who is supposed to. I loved the vid for the spirit raising effect, though. Making fun of the enemy is okay, as long as we don't discount their deadliness. I trust our guys on the ground won't allow it to affect their engagements. Yeah - the guy grabbing a hot barrel is a good giggle. Even I don't have to know how to shoot one to realize how hot that puppy was going to be.

1) Please tell me that this guy is saying he couldn't figure out how to "charge" the weapon? Is that supposed to be some state secret or is the big handle on the bolt just for looks? And now we are saying "well, hey, Zarqawi shouldn't know how to charge the weapon" because it's complicated? Now, if I had seen a video where he was screwing with the tripod and trying to get the magazine in and he couldn't do that or trying to re-assemble after it was cleaned, THEN I might be more sympathetic this point. but, seriously, somebody is supposed to be a big bad jihadi that shoots every day and he can't charge or clear the weapon by pulling back the charging handle on the bolt? I think that is a ridiculous concept. Anyone who has fired an automatic or semi-automatic weapon knows you clear it by pulling the slide or charging bolt and this device is usually pretty apparent on the weapon. Now I'm supposed to give him some slack cause he is the "leader" and not some punk jihad on the street with "practice" on this weapon? Please. 2) Zarqawi is an idiot. I've been reading a little biography of him and he is one of those guys that doesn't think very far ahead. All of his planning is short term, get rich quick kind of schemes. That is why he has gone to Baghdad. it's his Alamo; all or nothing. If he doesn't stop the final sitting of this government, he can kiss it all good-bye. He's committing alot of resources there and his leadership. Not to mention that area is the one that keeps getting the "emir" caught. 3) He has a tendency to surround himself with "yes" men. Note Zawahiri's letter to Zarqawi saying that he should be careful of surrounding himself with the young men who call him the "shiekh of butchers" or whatever else they come up with because they might turn his mind from the real purpose (too late). The video does re-enforce that because when he is sitting around the map with the men, they are not talking or offering information. He is doing all the talking with nothing but head nodding from the idiots he's with. Then, they are in the desert and he is showing off. Most of the the men around him appear young and slight compared to him. He does all the talking. The most they do is hold up their weapons and yell (besides helping him pull the charging bolt and taking the weapon from him). They strut around with their weapons up in the air. They are not worried about security. He has done this before. Take his insistance on keeping a separate camp in Afghanistan from that of Zawahiri and bin Laden. The reason he did so was because he wanted to be the "leader". Unlike the other two, he was not an experienced Jihadi leader. had he went into their camp, he would have been a distant second or third or even fourth. The others in the camp knew he wasn't an experienced leader. by keeping himself separate, his limited leadership wouldn't be exposed. Further, he did not have the pull to get men to join him by his own leadership and abilities. He had to glome onto existing organizations in Iraq and swear fealty to al Qaeda, basically getting their support, in order to get the kind of recruiting going he needed for the operation. This probably stuck in his craw and is why it took him so long to do it. Then there are the letters from the mujihadeen to Zarqawi in Iraq. All of them have similar points, mainly that the leaders Zarqawi picked for the different areas were slurping up the money; not providing good housing, food or clothes for the young mujihadeen; not providing the right security so the young men were being caught; and were constantly pushing the men to be "suicide bombers", when what they really wanted was glorious jihad like the mujihadeen in Afghanistan. the men they had all grown up to hear about. Men with machine guns facing down tanks. Suicidal, yes, but with specific intent, target and weapon. Not pressing a button in the midst of civilians. Several of the men that the letters were written about or by were quickly killed. some of them so quickly to the extent that it looks like they were given up internally like a power struggle and Zarqawi went quiet for awhile. In short, he likes butt kissers more than competent people because the thing he has always wanted is glory and he doesn't want to share it. 4) We are not talking about a competent soldier and leader. We are talking about a guy who has a tendency to surround himself with sycophants. His best qualities are his ability to write script and convince young men to join the "glorious cause" even when they are losing. He's a middle management idiot that has been give too much credit by the US military intelligence. The only reason that his operations have been successful is that somewhere, lower down the chain, he has had competent leaders of small cells who have more experience running an underground operation and maintaining security. Even the people he runs with know it and that is why he's been "demoted" from the ideological head of the entire organization from propaganda to politics to war to the "military leader". 5) Yeah, actually, the guy that grabs the barrel of the gun no only points to the caliber of people that idiot savant Zarqawi surrounds himself with, but the kind that have come to be jihadis. This is why they are suicidal car bomb fodder. That is what is left. There are very few "guerilla" cells, hiding out, springing ambushes with grenades and machine guns. He is down to IED and car bomb cells. Those that are competent have either made their own cells and keep a low profile or have gone home or went to other theaters of operation. He has the young and inexperienced. Many of the older "experienced" leaders have been captured or killed. Throughout 2005, this was done even more quickly than the year before and this year is starting out pretty good as well, which points to what is left of the organization. The fact that we have already been up Zarqawi's butt for the fourth time in a little over a year means that he is slipping more and more. Finally, some folks don't really get the message this video is supposed to send. Yes, it is the quick and obvious propaganda that says "look at this idiot", but it has many more purposes. the next big one, that appears to be too subtle for people to get is the message to Zarqawi. We know where he was. We were right behind him. To prove it, we have this tape and many other pieces of information including his "strategy paper". Most likely, we even got more information on the next cell or safe house. What does this say to Zarqawi? He needs to keep moving because he is in our sites. He has no time to sit down and plan, re-organize, recruit. The purpose is to rattle him and make him move as often as possible because constant moving means he will make another mistake. As Gen. Lynch said, it's not "if" we catch him, it's "when". 6) The other interesting aspect of the video was Zarqawi showing his face. Now, the experts say that it is because he needs to re-establish his wasta (face) after the demotion announced by al Azzam. That is most likely true. That is what all the pretty "council around a map" and "I am firing captured weapons" is for. However, what it really reminded me of was the suicide videos that the young jihadis put out. His martyrdom video. With his strategy being to fall back and put all his resources on baghdad, his alamo, he is at an all or nothing, do or die, situation. If he cannot unseat this government or take hold of Baghdad, his stent in Iraq is over. he has nothing to lose. We released that video to insure that his face got recognized all over Baghdad. It's no longer an old photo or two that didn't resemble his current face and body. He is known. His height, his build, his face. Is he mastermind or myth? How about mediocre? That's the story of his life. he is a mediocre guy trying to lead beyond his abilities. Zarqawi's fate is sealed. he will be captured or killed.

The use of "Face" has other meanings. In addition to getting his face in front of people for recognition purposes in Baghdad, the video also does a good job of making him look like a dolt. Along with his brain-dead follower. This is good. Still can't discount their ability to fight and do damage. First, it's false logic, and second - it'd be stupid to do so.