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My Take on Israel Attacking Iran

By Dusty (AKA Attila of Argghhh!) on May 2, 2006 | | Comments (3)

This is the note I sent Jonah, as part of my additional duties of being one of Jonah Goldberg's "Guys".

Jonah,

Israel is capable of doing it by air but I think we'll all be impressed (but not surprised) by its sophisticated and multifaceted makeup.

This will be a classic four-dimensional operation (land, sea, air and space)...and there's a fifth (sixth?, seventh?, n+1?) dimension I'm sure I'm missing. The first "boom" will, I suspect, not be made by a gravity weapon (free-fall bomb) either. I think we will be surprised by the principal delivery platform, too. That's pure speculation on my part, but this is a mission that will draw heavily on the creativity of some of the wiliest minds in the campaign planning world and I think the results will (rightly) surprise us. One can hope, anyway.

Some of the Iranian vulnerabilities will not be as glaring as one would hope thanks to their Russian and Chinese clients, but Israel has probably factored that in. They safely bet on the Russian, um, flexibility and open-mindedness in its space lift client selection process in reducing, to a degree at least, some of the unknowns.

In any event, I hope they don't do it. It'll be a short-run success.

The only way to truly neutralize this threat is with a strategic campaign in which kinetics play a very minor role. But, given the West's fatigue and the present Administration's ineptitude in waging the information war at home and abroad, our taking that road with any signs of commitment, much less success, is breathtakingly wishful thinking...and the Israelis know that better than anyone.

Your Airpower Guy

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3 Comments

By Barb on May 2, 2006 11:36 AM
I'm still struggling with the amount of time -- How long before the Iranians could have nuclear payloads to put in their new missilies from N.Korea, for example? Or, what's to prevent them from lobbing conventional warheads into Israel? If we are to wage a strategic campaign, it had better be in planning *now*.
 
By John of Argghhh! on May 2, 2006 11:40 AM
Of course it is, Barb. Heck, Cobra II used as a jumping off point (very highly modified) Zinni's pre-2000 plan. We've got plans. And I'm sure these are being updated and studied every day. It's what planning staffs get paid to do. Where we get tripped up is when we have to do something we never anticipated. I don't think this one falls into that category.
 
By ry on May 2, 2006 1:38 PM
Nice to see that I'm not to far away from Dusty's thinking about the benefits of a raid(basking in the validation). People may not like it, but, given that the IIRC green lighted the current Iranian Pres and so they've given at least tacit support to his actions, regime change is the only way to resolve this escalation of threat(barring a u-turn by the Mullahs of course). Those modified naval missiles they bought still require a warhead----which they haven't tests yet. The fact that they BOUGHT these suckers solidifies the placement of both DPRK and Iran on the 'Axis of Evil' list. I'd put Pakistan on it too, thanks to AQ Khan and his nuc proliferation activities, if Mushariff wasn't so damn useful to us right now. Okay, who's the bastiche who damned us with the 'May you live in interesting times' salutation?