We're the Military and Airpower Guys of Jonah Goldberg of National Review Online + a stray we found wandering around looking lost. All original material JHD, BHD, JR, WT, and KA 2003-2010 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html Sat, 24 Mar 2012 15:53:52 Z Movable Type 4.12 en Copyright 2012 http://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification [My trolling for Dusty worked. He left a looong comment, which most people won't read. Since he gets masthead billing 'round here, I yanked *most* of it up here. His personal update I left in the comments of the "Requiem for the Missing" post. -The Armorer] [I] Have thought about posting stuff but people keep beating me to the punch on just about everything. I will say, however, that you guys missed a big one--Scott Crossfield's untimely demise dodging thunderstorms in Georgia. I guess it was as good a way to go as any for an 84-year-old aviator who was,... http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html Mon, 24 Apr 2006 08:41:11 -0600 THE IRANIAN HEATHENS HAVE MADE THEIR BEDS NOW THEY ARE GONNA LAY IN THEM! THRE IS NO GOING BACK. THEY ARE,NT ALL OF A SUDDEN GOING TO SAY OK WE,LL DISARM! AN ASS KICK,N IS COMING,AND NONE TOO SOON. THAT LEADER THEY GOT, ADMINAJIHAD? IS GOING TO CUBA,TO VISIT FIDEL ITERCEPT HIS PLANE, IF THEY DON,T YIELD, WELL ONE MISSLE TAKES CARE OF THE PROBLEM. IF IT LANDS, WELL YOU GOT HIM.BUT I,D RATHER SEE HIM GO DOWN. THE MINUTE HE,S DEAD OR IN CUSTODY COMMENCE A MASSIVE SURPRISE BOMBING RAID. HAVE THE D BOYS IN PLACE IN TEHARAN WITH SO FLAM,S AND SNIPER RIFLES. IT WOULD CAUSE UTTER HAVOC WITH THEM. DEVASTATE THAT HEATHEN PLACE. AND NEVER MIND REBUILDING THAT HOLE, LEAVE IT AS A MONUMENT TO EVERY AS$%^&E THAT DARE HAVE SIMALAR THOUGHTS!!!! WE NEED TO BORROW MORE PAGES FROM SUN TZOU TO COMBAT THESE MUSLIM SCUM!!! http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44397 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44397 Thu, 27 Apr 2006 02:15:44 -0600 ry, I wasn't offended...my concern was that I (as in me) did not make myself clear and appreciated the comments. It forced me to restate my position a little more succinctly. Thanks also for reading Leiter...so I don't have to. Dusty http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44335 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44335 Mon, 24 Apr 2006 23:41:33 -0600 http://leiterreports.typepad.com/blog/2006/04/i_would_love_to_1.html Hard to imagine that one of the, proclaimed, best philosophers in the US believes what he wrote. Sigh. Sometimes people need to stop JUST thinking and do some research before they start thinking(lest they get ossified and travel in mentally safe circles). Half a dozen facts seem to change both where one starts when talking about this subject and most definately what conclusions one is lead to. ]]> http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44331 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44331 Mon, 24 Apr 2006 21:57:47 -0600 (levers self out of mud, again, wipes off face, again, checks back of shirt for Dusty tracks, again ;) ) I wasn't going after you Dusty(what's the saying? DOn't hunt what you can't kill?). Just trying to keep it impersonal. YOu know, attack the message not the messenger. Somebody was venting a little about their displeasure with the mullahs and said something I thought was a little over the top. I get the worry that many have about Iran. I get being committed to making an Iranian nuke not happen(thru various means at our disposal, whether that be soft kill(the 87m that Rice asked for) or unleashing Leviathan.). I'm just trying to be the cool head about this---some of us are ready to go, *now*. Make no mistake, we have to be prepared for the worst option(Leviathan). ANd Ledeen is a GOOD place to start with Iran. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44330 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44330 Mon, 24 Apr 2006 21:39:03 -0600 ry, My point wasn't we should physically hammer the Iranian regime yesterday. Quite the contrary. In fact, in a nutshell, I was (am) saying that the ayatollahs should be careful what they wish for. Having nuclear weapons carries with it tremendous costs, in security needs, logistical support...a plethora of things that cost you in manpower, money and, most importantly, national risk. Yes, having The Bomb is politically "cool" (to be somewhat simplistic about it). But if you don't need it, don't bother. Frankly, I don't think Europe is politically, emotionally, financially or even spiritually capable of facing down ANY middle eastern country that doesn't have a Star of David in its flag. So, Iran's threatening their oil supplies to compel them to move against the former's enemies, to one degree or another, doesn't take a nuke. Far from it. But... When you actually GET a nuke, you suddenly become a direct, STRATEGIC threat to all those folks were, heretofore, so easy to bully (or at least slow leak as you go about undermining Western interests in the region). Even "Fwance" won't stand for that (which is why they have the Force de Frappe). OK, so maybe their nuclear stockpile has all the teeth of their aircraft carrier fleet (heh) but I seriously doubt it. Even the Frogs take pride in things other than whine, cheese, their industrial espionage capabilities and tweaking Anglo-Saxon noses. One of them is their atomic weapons program. What Iran is about to do is come up out of the background noise in a way I doubt they fully appreciate from a security standpoint. I wholeheartedly agree squashing Iran right now is, well, really dumb. We have a young population ready to punt the ragheads and radicals into next week, a middle class wondering what in the world happened to their beautiful country, and a working class willing to strike despite the inevitable rampage they routinely endure by the government's bicycle chain-wielding thugs. This fruit is a lot lower-hanging than WE appreciate (except maybe for Michael Ledeen). To quote him, "Faster, please," on aggressively exploiting these vulnerabilites to free the Iranian people. BTW, do I think Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a barking loon? Not quite, but he sort of makes Lenin, Stalin and Mao look positively pacific. Perceptions are everything...and giving the wrong one when you're waving a hand grenade, sans pin, around your head in a crowded room full of people with large-caliber hand guns is not smart...but I could be wrong... Dusty http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44326 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44326 Mon, 24 Apr 2006 20:26:26 -0600 Comrade Ry, I'm with ya, friend. I'm just incredibly leery of the Ruling types in Iran. I can look back at many historical examples of where folks said they were going to do "X", and the Foreign Service types all pooh-poohed the comments, and then the bad guys went ahead and did "X" and folks were shocked! Shocked I tell you! I just don't know if we can afford to do the Neville Chamberlain tw0step again. Respects, AW1 Tim http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44320 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44320 Mon, 24 Apr 2006 18:05:54 -0600 genocide. I am seeing people willing to take immense risks, possibely ruining the ecosystem, to get what they want(Iran's odd. Not only is it Moslem, it's Persian. The push is not only for an Islamic empire, but a return of 'Persian Greatness'. Have to deal with both of those issues folks. The Iranians aren't just your run of the mill Moslem. We have the same cultural problems with them that we have with the Turks because they have an indentity apart from Islam that we don't have, as much, with Arab countries.). I see people I don't trust with nuclear weapons, much less the means to produce fissile material. But total whackjobs? Nope. People out to screw things up for evil purposes? Abso-farqin'-lutely. I'm down with The Cheif's position that as long as Iran is run by mullahs there'll be an Iranian project to gain nuclear weapons. It's a means to an end for them. They want to be THE major player in the Gulf. They want to be one of the Big 5 countries that help decide what goes on in the world. Despite what the minister for whatever in charge of the nuc programs PR end has to say they want nucs so they can be King Crap. They do see a deterent effect of having it----DPRK proll'y doesn't even have a working weapon(they've never tested anything) and it looks to many like they're able to hold the US at bay. The only option that get's us to where we want to go is regime change. What do we have to do before we can do that? Are we ready for that? Ry's BS checklist(like I know what the f I'm doing): 1) Have the force required to win the war and win the peace. 2) Figure out how we're going to do both the war and the peace. 3) Find whatever partners we can for this because unless we decide to go nobody else will(Canada, unfortunately, cannot even get there without US help. Same seems to be true somewhat for others----just taking on Argentina for the Falklands required the UK to commandeer commercial shipping. Who's got the logistical train to do this BUT us?). No point in going alone if we don't have to. There is something to be said about the illusion of 'legitimacy' when you're talking about the fight for hearts and minds. 4) Pick the right time. There's a smorgasborg of issues out there that DEMAND to be dealt with. Some have to be put on the back burner until they are time critical. This is one that can be put there. BUsh seems to be saying that he's worried that his successor won't have the cajones to 'do Iran'. So start the campaign in 18 monthsor whatever puts it 9 months before the next Pres Election. That forces the successor to 'do Iran'. Meanwhile, we hand;e other stuff that IS critical right now. Like the border. Like Iraq. Like getting a coherent energy strategy. Like rebuilding NOLA. I'm down with doing Iran. I'm even looking at ways that this gangrel creature can help more directly than shouting off it's big mouth. But now isn't the right time. Save the anger. Pass the ammunition. But let's be smart about this. There's room for more Jaw-Jaw before we have to go smackenzie upside the IRC's head. ]]> http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44318 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44318 Mon, 24 Apr 2006 17:56:10 -0600 "[t]he religious terrorist may speak of changes he desires in this world, but his true goal is simply the punishment of others-—in the largest possible numbers—-as an offering to the bloodthirsty, vengeful God he has created for himself. This apocalyptic terrorist may identify himself as a Muslim or a Christian, but he is closer akin to an Aztec, sacrificing long lines of prisoners on an altar of blood (one of the many psychological dimensions yet to be explored in terrorist studies is the atavistic equation of bloodshed with cleansing-—an all-too-literal bath of blood)." (from When Devils Walk the Earth) Whether it is to force the 12th Imam out of his hidey-hole to initiate a global caliphate or just to punish the rest of the world for not being Wahabist enough to suit their tastes, the current crop of Iranians at the top of the heap *will* be planting a mushroom crop as soon as the spores are ready. And if it's Allah's will that the Land of Darius become a parking lot paved with green glass in the process, that's fine with them, too... ]]> http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44309 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44309 Mon, 24 Apr 2006 11:50:54 -0600 Dusty, your argument holds together pretty well, but you appear to be assuming that, when faced with a nuclear mushroom over Tel Aviv (or Madrid, London, Paris, Berlin, New York City), there will be any Western leader with the guts to order a retaliatory strike. At this moment, that seems a rather large and difficult-to-support assumption. http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44305 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44305 Mon, 24 Apr 2006 09:39:09 -0600 Comrades, All I know is that if the Iranians get their hands on workable nukes, they will use them. Either directly or through proxies. Make no mistake. They will be used. These are not our old adversaries of the cold war. These are hard-core full-throttle believers in their faith and the demand from Allah that Islam rule supreme throughout the world. This nation, hell EVERY nation that is interested in an earthly tomorrow needs to take the Iranians at face value and accept all of thier blatherings as proof on intent. Hitler said what he was going to do and went out and did it, despite all the politicos saying "Oh, he doesn't really mean that... he's just rattling his sabre". Well, Iran's current president is on record saying that Israel will be wiped off the map, that it's time is coming soon. He also believes in doing whatever is needed to bring about the return of the 12th Imam. In other words: Judgement Day. Our old cold-war friends and enemies all subscribed to the doctrine of MAD: Mutually Assured Destruction. We respected our our adversaries and fought our "little wars" through proxies and occasionally our own troops. We all wanted victory because we all wanted to see tomorrow. The Iranians want a very different tomorrow. They could care less if their nation is destroyed, because they believe in the judgement day and the resurrection of Islam as a world Power, ruling all, encompassing all, with the non-believers erased from the picture. The Iranians WANT the exchange. Their mad mullahs WANT to see the return of the 12th Imam and the end times. In that regard, they are a most dangerous and unstable enemy. Iran cannot be allowed to join the club. It's bad enough we have so many members as it is. Allowing Iran to become a nuclear power would be like giving Charles Manson a basket of C-4 and a shotgun and saying "Here.. see what you can do with this stuff. Have fun!" That's my 2-cent's worth. Other's mileage may, of course, vary:) Respects, AW1 Tim http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44301 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44301 Mon, 24 Apr 2006 08:11:52 -0600 these airframes?]]> http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44300 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44300 Mon, 24 Apr 2006 08:01:34 -0600 Cold war it is. And I was thinking a lot less about islamist proxy nuts with nukes in our city than stepped up Iranian assistance in main stream terrorist proxy attacks with conventional explosives, etc because they think that lack of nuke use while owning a nuke will keep them out of the line of fire and you are basically re-enforcing that. I don't think they will hand out "suitcase nukes" 'cause one of the jihadist just might decide that the Shia Islamic Caliphate is far too objectinable to the Wahabi Sunni group they represent and decide to return it to the Ayatollahs with the gift wrapping opened. They would not even blink that they were "fellow muslims" and it would be sanctioned by Allah since he abhors mushiroon (idol worshipers and the Shia do like to pray at shrines and revere ali as if he was equal to Mohammed and maybe even the physical presence of Allah). In fact, I wonder if that is one of the reasons driving the Mullahs to get a nuke, not just a little nervous nellie, boohoo, they might change our regime anti-US thing? Pakistan = Large Sunni Fundamentalist state + Nukes http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44299 http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2006/04/iran_and_nukes.html#comment-44299 Mon, 24 Apr 2006 07:37:13 -0600