Comments for New Orleans, Katrina, Louisiana, the Feds.

New Orleans, Katrina, Louisiana, the Feds.

2005-09-02T15:13:16Z

UPDATE: For those of you who may be looking for contact info in helping to find family and friends impacted by Katrina, or if you are a refugee who wants to let people know you are okay - Dawn's Early Light has a round-up of websites and phone numbers to help you pass the information along.

UPDATE 2: Chuck Simmins is tracking the giving.

To date: Cash: $161,619,257.00

Goods and Services: $12,169,000.00

Update 3: Greyhawk lists the webpages that military people affected by the Hurricane might find useful.

http://www.dod.mil/home/features/2005/katrina/index.html - contact info for military families displaced by Katrina (also a great collection of news releases on the military efforts in hurricane relief)
http://www.guardfamily.org/ - info for Guard families impacted by the storm.

http://www.gxonline.com/gxintelnews?id=24147 - info for getting deployed Guard members in touch with their families who might be displaced by the storm - and vice versa.

Update 4: As Alan so helpfully points out:

Hey - you have 1,000 guys from Halifax, Nova Scotia heading down there. The Canadian navy is on the way.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20050902.wcanship0902/BNStory/National/

OK - it is a small navy...we all know it is a small navy...but at least
they carry their own beer wherever they go.

And we appreciate it Alan, eh? Alan is also a fan of Russ Honore'...

This is the original post....

I actually took today off so I could do some emailing, phone-calling, web-surfing, etc, trying to build a more coherent picture (flawed as it is) of what's going on down in Louisiana.

My thoughts on the subject are informed by the fact that I spent two years as one of those guys in the Army whose job it was to do the generic plans for incident responses (from a DoD perspective, and *ALWAYS* subordinate to FEMA - they're the Big Dog), designing and executing training events to rehearse the plans, and, now and then, implement them, though during that time there was no event ever approaching the magnitude of what's happening in Louisiana right now. But ask me about that exercise we did with Seattle that resulted in 10,000 notional dead and injured, with a concomitant breakdown in social control... my point being - we actually *do* planning (or at least did) for events of this size.

Some of the New Madrid earthquake scenarios, especially the winter ones... were visions of Apocalypse. Imagine flattening good chunks of St. Louis and Memphis - in January. And losing the bridges over the Mississipi (which means you can't barge people and equipment, either), and we don't want to even *think* about the economic impact of losing the I-70 and I-40 bridges... much less the rail bridges.

The weather makes your response focus completely different, because the shelter requirements suddenly become astounding and compelling. You're thinking tent cities in 10 degree weather become nightmares. Clothing, keeping pipes from freezing, sanitation.... I'm thinking 10,000 suddenly homeless people dumped into that weather... in the clothes they had on at the time... There's no spending the night wandering around in a daze, because you'll freeze to death before that - the looting starts 5 minutes after the shaking stops. It *has* to - because they aren't going to live through the night otherwise. But I digress. If you are going to have disasters of this magnitude, the Gulf Coast is a moderately benign place to have them, weather-wise, but I digress again.

Keeping an eye on National Review's The Corner blog, you can watch a fairly well connected group of people, who have jobs that allow/require them to keep an eye on the news, comment on what's going on.

And obviously, it doesn't look good for the people in charge. And I fault the people in charge.

John Derbyshire's arrogant ignorance kept pissing me off. Until I realized what I just said. Ignorance. Lack of knowledge. Derb isn't stupid, he's ignorant. And whose fault is that? Not his.

In order -

The Government of Louisiana, Kathleen Blanco, Governor. It was their job to get the ball rolling. The Federal government doesn't respond, by law, until the Governor asks them to. (If you think FEMA in their Ops Center at Weather Mountain wasn't already alerting you're wrong, but *acting* is governed by law).

The Federal Government, George W. Bush, President.

Because neither of them have got the Public Face of the Government getting out the info. Believe it or not, that, to my mind, is actually the Most Important Thing to be doing up front and early. Because the professionals will be handling the details of getting the response moving. That isn't the politicos job.

The MSM, a distant third. For being so focused on the sad and compelling stories, that they haven't been asking the right questions of the right people, and putting the heat on the public officials to give out the details.

I'll forgive the initial flounders, when something like this starts, you get huge amounts of data... most of it wrong, or at least out of context. You aren't *really* sure what's happening, and the magnitude. Yes, the Guy on the Ground does - except he really only knows what he sees... and while it's a horror in his immediate area, doesn't mean it's a horror everywhere else. Until is becomes apparent it is. But you *still* have to assimilate the data.

Crying on camera is fine - as long as it's preceded or followed by "This is what we're doing, this is how we're going about it, and this is how we're coordinating for more help." Not just being stunned. Getting.Out.The.Word. Guys like me will be getting out the Stuff.

I think the President should have called off the California gig and headed for Washington.

WTF? Donovan is saying getting talking heads out putting out info is more important than Boots on the Ground, rescuing people and delivering aid?

Yes. That's what I said.

Why? Because Controlling The Perception of The Disaster in it's early stages will help shape the form of the follow-on actions. Guys, I've worked with FEMA. They're smart people and well-organized.

BUT IT TAKES 3-5 DAYS TO GET PEOPLE IN PLACE AND FUNCTIONAL. Minimum. Not the prepositioned people in the waiting-to-be-activated DFO, Disaster Field Office... the Outside Responders.

Plus, remember - WE ALL THOUGHT THEY'D DODGED THE BULLET. For a whole day. Then the levees broke. FEMA's attention was on the area to the east, where the brunt of the storm went in.

So that's where the initial focus was. And *that* still has to be dealt with too.

So. Why don't we have tens of thousands of troops IN THERE RIGHT NOW!?!

And all the volunteer and paid relief workers?

They are on their way, they really are. And, today, they are starting to arrive. But WHY WEREN'T THEY THERE THREE DAYS AGO!?!

One. The tyranny of distance. You have to mobilize, do final pack-outs, and start driving. 500 miles a day, if you're lucky. So what? Fly! That requires aircraft, on short notice. Even if we weren't using the TRANSCOM's transport fleet to support OIF and OEF, it takes time to get crews to aircraft, aircraft to place where people need to be picked up. If you are using non-mobilized reservists/Guardsmen, they have to be mobilized - not hard, but they've got to drop what they're doing and get to the aircraft, while the ground crews have to stop what they're doing and get to the aircraft and get them ready. Then there's the problem with the local airports being flooded. So if you fly them in to Baton Rouge, say - you have to have transport to get them to New Orleans. Ships? See the Tyranny of Distance argument. The getting ships and people/supplies matched up, etc. Yet all of that is happening, and stuff is moving that way.

So what? The Army has all those troops at Fort Hood and stuff! Well, yes and no. There *is* a war on. But heavy mech forces don't wear well if you road-march them hundreds of miles - at least if you want them to be working when they get there. And they'll require fuel when they're there... which we know is a problem already. So, mech forces aren't a good choice - but to further confuse that issue, a lot of Fort Hood's gear is in transit or in theater. And mech forces don't have a lot of soft transport for troop movement. Hey, they're built for fighting wars, eh?

Okay, use light guys. They don't have that much organic transport, either.

Two. Life support. Remember, this place just got hammered. You have tens of thousands of refugees, milling around, and moving outward. This in an area which has had it's infrastructure hammered. Now you want to bring in thousands of more people. Where do they sleep? How do they get fed? Water? Toilets? Sanitation? So, in addition to having to find a way to feed clothe and house 10s of thousands of refugees on short notice in an area that is by definition under stress and possibly unable to cope - you have to *bring in* additional life support for the supporters. That takes time. And again, the tyranny of distance. FEMA keeps regional storage sites with the stuff they need - but it *still* takes time. Even more so if one of the regional storage sites is involved in the disaster. I don't know that that is the case here, I'm just pointing it out.

3. Social Control. There is an implicit assumption that local authorities will be able to maintain some level of local order. That assumption obviously wasn't valid in this case. Some of it due to the devastation, some of it due to the horror that is apparently NO politics and police. But that's kinda outside my bailiwick.

4. Add to all that, the GWOT, and the impact that's had on the Guard. There's going to be lots of room for discussion about reorganizing things in the light of dealing with this disaster, and lord knows the recriminations over that stuff have already begun! But unless you are essentially going to say that "We can never send the Guard overseas because they might possibly be needed in the US." and accept that limitation on foreign policy, that's not a useful frame for the debate. But that's a post of a different color, too.

This has rambled - but here is my bottom line as I see it this morning.

1. The response *is* massive, and it's moving about as fast as it can, in aggregate, lots of details can be quibbled. But in the main, the machinery is in motion - and it's moving about as fast as it can. And this is about as good as we can expect in many respects, I think. It's simply not possible to have everybody in the response tail stood up ready for instant deployment every time a tropical storm manifests itself.

2. The politicians have fumbled badly thus far. In the end, they will in a sense get redeemed by the people who will clean up the mess. The Professionals who are doing their job at the moment. But, to this voter, The President and the Governor have done an abysmal job in their very public duties.

That's my story, and I'm stickin' to it - until I change my mind because of new data or more reflection.

Comment from ry on 2005-09-05

2005-09-06T03:55:31Z

Agreed. I'm not comfortable giving DHS the power it needs, essentially becoming a power onto itself, so would rather see it go away. Maybe if there were a drive for Jointness within the disaster response community the kinds of problems were seeing wouldn't happen--and the benefit would be no need for DHS.

Comment from John of Argghhh! on 2005-09-05

2005-09-05T15:04:08Z

As someone with some experience with this, it's been encouraging to read (as in the WashPost article linked in a different post) to see that the Federal response wasn't as bumbling as it first appeared, but was held up by the politicians wrangling to avoid blame, as well as Not Understanding The Problem, in a sense. Not because I'm happy about it - but because it indicates the professionals do know their jobs (however badly it's playing in the press) and because it's frankly easier to fix the political class than it is to revamp an entire set of agency. What really let us down here was human nature, and that's going to be hard to overcome - except that for a few years, at least, Governors are going to be screaming for FEMA to be there early, and seek help in evacuation, if needed. Of course, there is danger of overreaction, too. In many respects, New Orleans is a special case, as the relatively successful response in Mississippi and Alabama shows. As for DHS, I agree with you Ry - but with this caveat: If we aren't going to give them the authority they need to do the job, (and right now, they really don't have it) then they should go away, as the represent rather more just an additional layer of bureaucracy than value-added.

Comment from ry on 2005-09-05

2005-09-05T07:06:48Z

SOmething that just occured to me. This is DHS' first time out of the box. Should we be surprised that problems occured? Name ONE gov't program that worked even close to properly the first time it was used. Lessons learned. Might want to cut some people some slack. Other's we want to lynch for their incompetance, but some people/agencies need to be cut some slack.

Comment from Blake Kirk on 2005-09-04

2005-09-05T03:08:01Z

John, Just last year, FEMA wargamed New Orleans getting hit by a Cat 4 hurricane, with a subsequent rupture of the levees. The Army Corps of Engineers and the city engineering staff all knew that the levees had been built to withstand no more than a Cat 3 storm. The National Hurricane Center was reporting that Katrina would make landfall at or very near to New Orleans as a Cat 4 or 5 storm four days before it actually hit. For FEMA and Secretary Chertoff to suggest that this was an unforseeable set of events is, in my humble opinion, tantamount to deliberate prevarication to divert attention from the clearly obvious failure at all levels to anticipate what actually happened. If this is typical of how well Homeland Security is prepared to respond when they have a week's worth of warning, God help us if we get hit with, say, a large volume terrprist attack with chemical or biological agents with no notice.

Comment from John of Argghhh! on 2005-09-04

2005-09-04T13:35:50Z

It's all the celebrity thang, Ry. Get surrounded by a bunch of sycophantic yes men (groupies, grad students, same thing) and you begin to beleve all the sucking up! Sarenyon - I've had that pic as my wallpaper at work since it showed up on Army.mil. Gad, I envy you the experince, and the BFIST. My company FSO's had to wallow around in M981's. I'm old enough that I swanned around in M113's and M151's...

Comment from ry on 2005-09-04

2005-09-04T10:42:08Z

Okay, break it up. No intramural snipping. Gawd, needing one of the closest to childlike here to keep you Ah-dultz from taking pot shots at each other. For shame;). Yes, if civilians listen to us scientist types when our expertise applied( I'm of the junior science, Chemistry, Jack) things would likely go better in many instances. But, I also hear John's point. Some people in the core sciences, or just really brilliant people for that matter, tend think that their opinion on everything matters. Sorry, but like alot of things it takes some training, study, and effort to understand an outside topic. Ex: I don't want my PI planning a camping trip--the's a functional idiot in that regard, natural brilliance being no help to him. But, if I wanted to know how to do a lit search or set up a reaction/seperation scheme using exotic equipment: he's The Man. Hubris. It's the fatal flaw of scientists just like it is in anyone else.(just no punching or kicking in the face, if you please).

Comment from Sarenyon on 2005-09-04

2005-09-04T10:23:34Z

Things are happening and now that we are 5 - 6 days in, things will be happening fast. I'm down here on the DCE for Mississippi on the night shift. Never thought to post before, but have lurked on your blog in the past. I, too, am a fellow Redleg. Funny thing is that Goblins picture is actually one of my M7 BFIST during OIF. If you look closely, the bumper number says 1-10 F as in 1st BN, 10th FA, 3 BDE, 3 ID, Ft. Benning GA. Right now I'm working with the Defense Coordinating Element in Mississippi and it is amazing how much is being brought to bear on this whole problem. The problem is the scope of the matter, compounded with the lack of communication, and the ammount of time it takes to get stuff moving. This problem has created the need for new ways to tackle this, and thus we have JTF Katrina with LTG Honore. It's also amazing how much stuff NORTHCOM is giving him. Like I said, we're getting stuff done down here. Everyone is going to cringe when casualty reports start filtering in. We have not received anything beyond the 160 range in MS official yet... but the requests for Body Bags have come in. Keep everyone in your prayers and help out any way you can.

Comment from Jack on 2005-09-04

2005-09-04T08:15:30Z

What, John, you're asking us scientist-types to stick to our knitting while *everyone else* does the Piled Higher and Deeper spreading?

Comment from ry on 2005-09-04

2005-09-04T07:48:44Z

http://www.pubs.asce.org/ceonline/ceonline03/0603feat.html A 2003 engineering journal, including quotes from the Corps of Engineering commander. Almost to a T of what we're seeing. People knew what to expect. If the civil leadership didn't act on it with warnings like this then accountability doesn't mean a thing. Even still, they had to be watching the levees on Mon. They had to see how they were stressed and about to fail. They had time DO something. When NO is pumped out and people return I hope they impeach both the mayor and the governor.

Comment from Justthisguy on 2005-09-03

2005-09-04T02:34:15Z

People have counted those buses, and the numbers I believe are 250-260 school buses, ~360 street buses, all drowned and unused. 60-some people per bus. Do the arithmetic. Not "math", 3rd grade arithmetic. Two trips per bus would have gotten all but the extra-stubborn and the extra-criminal outta there.

Comment from Heartless Libertarian on 2005-09-03

2005-09-03T18:27:12Z

BTW...I'd guess at least 100 busses are visible in that AP photo...figure 40 pax per, that's at least 4,000 people they could have moved. And now those assets are out of the fight.

Comment from John of Argghhh! on 2005-09-03

2005-09-03T17:28:32Z

I don't think the military response has been lacking, truthfully. The Navy has made some recent readiness changes that allowed them to get cold ships steaming out of harbor in 24 hours - which is a feat. I don't think the 1st Army/5th Army split is a problem either, frankly. NORTHCOM, which is handling it's first real big disaster probably has a pretty good learning curve, but the force providers they are going to know how to do this. I still think the "third wave" response has been pretty good - the failure of leadership at the local and state level, combined with the bad performance (I still think) of the Public Face of the federal government is the bad story. The Feds, under the laws now in place, couldn't have done a heckuva lot more than they have, though details can be quibbled. The real, egregious failures here are New Orleans and the state of Louisiana - and the political machines embedded therein. And I would say that if they were bulk Republican. This isn't partisan, it's gross negligence.

Comment from Heartless Libertarian on 2005-09-03

2005-09-03T16:40:09Z

John- About the busses-apparently Drudge is asking the same question I did-here's a picture from the AP And as far as federal response, especially federal military response, goes, I wonder how much command boundaries played a part? East of the Mississippi River is First Army's(General Honore) responsibility. 1A has plenty of recent experience with hurricanes. West of the River, to include Louisiana, falls under Fifth Army. (Note: my current unit [4/91st Div] falls under 5A, and DCE is one of our on-call missions). As I understand it, control of the whole operation was transfered to 1A on Tues or Wed. As has been noted, the initial response in the 1A sector was much better than in the 5A sector, although I think that's more a function of the local/state authorities involved. That being said, I think one of the things that really hurt the response in LA was the delay before the NO levees broke. When the sun went down Monday, the worst of the storm had passed, and they thought they had dodged a bullet, and they relaxed. If the levees had broken on Monday, I think, in all honesty, their reaction might have been a bit better.

Comment from Boquisucio on 2005-09-03

2005-09-03T14:13:03Z

I have restrained myself from participating on this thread, for I'm afraid of ranting out irresponsible language. Unfortunately, I can't keep it in any longer. K-MO, Word for word, you speak my mind. All Three Levels of Government City of New Orleans, State of Louisiana and The Feds, have managed to Royaly Fark-up this Natural Disaster into a Hecatomb of Biblical proportions. To me, it is obvioius that none of our Political Class have been to Ft. Benning, for they have no concept of the basics of leadership. To them, and I mean ALL of them, the words "Follow Me" are a foreign concept. There used to be a time in which our civilian leadership would step up to the breach and lead by example. Does anyone here remember those Nationwide Addresses from the Oval Office at 2000hrs, on to which to deliver drop-dead serious SitReps to the American Public and/or to rally our collective consciousness to face-up a crisis? I do. I do remember a time in which our Elected Officials were not afraid of their own constituents. They were not shielded from the real world by a sanitized bubble of yes-men. Our leaders of the past would not go to an affected area to seek a vapid photo-op, but dive head-on and comfort face-to-face those whom they served, pass relief supplies, or sandbags. We do not elect political managers, we elect political leaders. A leader's purpose is not to coordinate and manage a relief effort, like if it was a bureaucratic exercise. A true leader galvanizes our resolve against adversity. A true leader inspires us all into aspiring to do great things. A true leader creates a calming environment in which our collective clear heads can operate with purpose. None of this is evident. As such, this vacuum in leadership, have done nothing but agravate an already bad situation. As a result of this Political Cluster Frok, one full week after the storm hit, many of our citizens ARE still dying needlessly. This administration is fretting away, the mandate that it received for its second term. With Social Security Reform derailed, a non-existent Energy Policy, it's Domestic Policy is in complete chaos. Its Foreign Policy, may be doing better, but it does not communicate its priorities to neither us nor the world. I am very concerned about the 2006 Mid-term elections. The prospect of having Congress fall into the hands of the other party is a reality that I wish I didn't have to contemplate.

Comment from John of Argghhh! on 2005-09-03

2005-09-03T14:09:53Z

Salamander - Barbour seems to have done fine, but the Press doesn't care... perhaps because the response in his state has (at least as far as anyone can tell) been adequate - and therefore can't really be used to bash anyone, which means it's no fun for the partisans. Jack - if you scientists would stick with science... and not just act as if the Piled Higher and Deeper applied cross-discipline...

Comment from Fuzz bear Lioness on 2005-09-03

2005-09-03T14:07:46Z

I'm definitely leaning to the side that would fault local authorities. We tend to forget that Mississippi and Alabama have coped with this much better than New Orleans, and they seem confident with the assistance they're getting. It seems that responsibility for a lot of the difference in results between N.O. and the rest of the gulf coast has to be laid at the feet of local leadership.

Comment from Dad29 on 2005-09-03

2005-09-03T13:29:48Z

Generally, I agree with John--communications from the Feds have been just awful. There IS such a thing as managing expectations, which would have at least mitigated the "Blame Game" to a certain extent.

Comment from CDR Salamander on 2005-09-03

2005-09-03T13:15:15Z

John, I'll give you the political actions have not been great, or mediocre....with the exception of the Gov. of Miss. He is the only major politician that has done an outstanding job here. Rudy would be proud of Gov. Barbour. I'm not saying that because my roots are there either. We have missing family in Gulfport, but no one in my family is faulting the gov'munt. .....also it is important to remember nothing like this has hit a major American city in living memory.

Comment from Jack on 2005-09-03

2005-09-03T09:01:51Z

John, your RSS feed URL changed! I thought you had stopped posting for a few days. How can I be one of the resident contrarians on so many blogs if they change their newsfeed addresses and don't tell me? :-P To Da Goddess: The question "how is anyone supposed to know the extent of the damange before an event occurs?" is a legitimate one, but there is an answer. Scientific American published an article in October of 2001 that pretty much described in detail the physical events of the last week (not the effects on society). That article included results of the latest (at the time) computer simulations of water displacement and subsequent flooding. So, the information was out there. It had been out there long before the October 2001 article was published. As I said in my post where I linked the article: How about listening to us scientists on occasion? We are not always right, but in this case the risk was well understood, yet for a combination of reasons the problem was not fully addressed by any of the governmental bodies responsible (including the federal government in the guise of the Army Corps of Engineers). The frenzy is helping no one, but do not discount the assertions that at least some of the disaster was avoidable.

Comment from ry on 2005-09-03

2005-09-03T06:58:10Z

I hear what you're saying Joannie, but I don't think that applies to much here. Standing up the Louissia NG would be real expensive. Hiring bussing companies to move people out would be real expensive. The gov't would've been schelacked if they'd done these things and nothing came of it. But I'm not talking about that. Late Sun or early monday it became apparent that the levees weren't going to hold. At that point the gov't had a reason to spend lots of money--justifiable to the electorate. That they didn't do so is near criminal. I'm not saying they had to be clairvoyant or psychic. Just acted appropriately when data was given them. I don't really care which party is in control down there. If Rudy acted like this I'd want his head on a pike too. The civil leadership dropped the ball. They had a window of about 5 hours to mitigate the disaster and they twittered it away. I'm not talking about partisan finger pointing. I'm talking about holding those responsible for bad decisions responsible. I'm not asking them to know the future or control the weather. I'm saying I expect people in gov't to use common sense and act in the electorate's best interests. 'First the mission, then the men, then yourself'.

Comment from Da Goddess on 2005-09-03

2005-09-03T06:03:31Z

It seems so easy to sit on the sidelines and say "we should have done this" or "we should have done that." What I want to know is - how is anyone supposed to know the extent of the damage before an event occurs? And, how are they supposed to be there before it happens with all the right supplies? There is no way to win here. If we'd had all the people needed for relief efforts assembled on site to respond to the needs of those who were impacted by Katrina, those same people would be facing the same problems everyone else is. Additionally, if we'd had everyone on scene with more supplies and resources than imaginable, and Katrina had petered out into a "nothing" storm, the government would have been accused of wasting money so foolishly. There is currently no way to control the weather, no way to anticipate the extent of damage and resources needed. None. Feeding into the frenzy is helping no one.

Comment from MCart on 2005-09-03

2005-09-03T05:30:52Z

I disagree that Bush is a 'poor' speaker. Not just to disagree with you, I acknowledge that he mangles just about every sentence that passes his lips. But that doesn't make for a poor communicator. Allow me to remind you: Great harm has been done to us. We have suffered great loss. And in our grief and anger we have found our mission and our moment. Freedom and fear are at war. The advance of human freedom -- the great achievement of our time, and the great hope of every time -- now depends on us. Our nation -- this generation -- will lift a dark threat of violence from our people and our future. We will rally the world to this cause by our efforts, by our courage. We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail. It is my hope that in the months and years ahead, life will return almost to normal. We'll go back to our lives and routines, and that is good. Even grief recedes with time and grace. But our resolve must not pass. Each of us will remember what happened that day, and to whom it happened. We'll remember the moment the news came -- where we were and what we were doing. Some will remember an image of a fire, or a story of rescue. Some will carry memories of a face and a voice gone forever. And I will carry this: It is the police shield of a man named George Howard, who died at the World Trade Center trying to save others. It was given to me by his mom, Arlene, as a proud memorial to her son. This is my reminder of lives that ended, and a task that does not end. I will not forget this wound to our country or those who inflicted it. I will not yield; I will not rest; I will not relent in waging this struggle for freedom and security for the American people. Excerpt from a direct address to Congress following the attack on 09/11/01. A bit of that was paraphrased from another somewhat poor speaker, who had great powers of communication. Sir Winston Churchill. I'm afraid Bush has fallen far short of my expectations in this matter, and apparently the expectations of the entire nation. I'm not going to dwell on it, whats done is done. But i'm not going to give him a pass on it either, just because he can't pronounce 'Nuclear' or form a sentence to the satisfaction of english majors all across the country. Helk, he didn't even write that speech. But the delivery was awe-inspiring, and the single point of leadership mattered. Inspirational leadership is more than good grammar. We needed some this week, and America didn't get it.

Comment from Mudpuppy1975 on 2005-09-02

2005-09-03T02:07:38Z

This in no way a slam on any one person or persons. The responability for emergency/disaster responce has been and will always fall on the local level first. The higher levels of response come on line at a later time due to time distance factors. 72 to 96 hours is not unreasanable for the mobilization and deployment of federal assets. The local police and fire should have been on alert from the get go. with in 24 hours state assets should have been on line. For the tragic situation in NO, the blame can and must be placed squarily at the feet of the city 'leadership'. As has been said before, this is only my view, your mileage will vary. May Almighty God have mercy on all who have suffered or are suffering during this time of trial and may they find peace.

Comment from John of Argghhh! on 2005-09-02

2005-09-03T01:18:02Z

Dave - I wasn't writing a book...? I also was trying to do something PAO types told me to do when dealing with the public - stick to what you know. I know (well, knew, anyway) MSCA and Garden Plot. Yes, I've actually read the infamous Garden Plot plans... I have opinions on local government - but I was just talking what I knew. :snark Besides, if I cover everything, then only the contrarians respond. This gets the know-it-alls out! /snark. 8^D BTW - what was confusing about this?

3. Social Control. There is an implicit assumption that local authorities will be able to maintain some level of local order. That assumption obviously wasn't valid in this case. Some of it due to the devastation, some of it due to the horror that is apparently NO politics and police. But that's kinda outside my bailiwick.

Not direct enough? 8^)

Comment from Heartless Libertarian on 2005-09-02

2005-09-03T00:34:20Z

John- I'm kind of suprised to see that you omitted Mayor Nagin and the rest of the NO city government from the blame line. I know it's not nice to blame the victims, but they should definitely be in line for their share. Why? They knew-or at least should have known, since apparently the Corps of Engineers has known for years, if not decades, that NO would flood if hit by a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane. They knew that there would be people in the city who weren't able to leave, whether because they were physically unable to do so or simply because they lacked the transportation assets (ie, cars). So they knew there would be people in the shelters. But they apparently had no plan to either a) try to get some of these people out of the city instead of just putting them in shelters to ride it out; or b) having much of a plan to get them out of places like the Superdome and the Convention Center when the city flooded. Even worse, they left city owned transportation assets-school busses-unused, sitting in their now flooded parking lots, instead of using them to get people out before the storm, or at least getting them out of the storm path so they could be used afterward. And as for FEMA not knowing about the situation at the CC, who's responsible for the shelters? The city government. If FEMA didn't know, it's because the city didn't tell them. Oh, and being a good libertarian, I don't think disaster relief is within the "defined and limited powers" granted to the .fedgov by the Constitution. I seem to remember Madison, Pierce, and Cleveland having some words to that effect.

Comment from EagleSpeak on 2005-09-02

2005-09-03T00:13:56Z

Whoa, Blake! Like the administration or not, things were afoot before Katrina struck. You might check this out. NORCOM and FEMA were coordinating in advance. But they had to keep their stuff out of the way of the storm and then had to deal with a severely damaged infrastructure and with all the "tyranny of distance" issues John addresses above. Contrary to MSM opinion, even the military can't make stuff magically appear. As for the Conference Center, I'll bet an investigation will reveal in all the excitement people at the top got confused and thought the reports were referring to the Superdome by another name. Bad mistake, but understandable... Once again, though, it's a sign that not enough of the right kind of communications gear has been purchased with Homeland Security funds...and distributed to the cities. The government should not be relying on CNN or Shep Smith to get its reports from the field.

Comment from Blake Kirk on 2005-09-02

2005-09-02T22:24:08Z

John, I'm sorry to disagree with you, but it was obvious for DAYS in advance that Katrina was going to do major damage to the Gulf Coast. FEMA should have been ramping stuff up as soon as Katrina turned north instead of waiting for the rain to stop so they wouldn't get their suits mussed. For FEMA still to be floundering about trying to arrange basic things like communications with local officials today verges on criminal incompetence. At this point FEMA ought to have twenty or thirty assessment teams in NO alone, reporting back to FEMA what needs to happen and where, and what the current conditions in the city will permit. As near as I can tell they don't seem to have anybody doing this. I expect we'll eventually find out that a significant number of people in NO will die of malnutrition over the next week or so because FEMA wasn't prepared for an event of this magnitude. One of the reasons that I detest the current Administration is that competence doesn't seem to be a criterion for employment at the Presidential appointment level.

Comment from Alan on 2005-09-02

2005-09-02T21:44:37Z

Hey - you have 1,000 guys from Halifax, Nova Scotia heading down there. The Canadian navy is on the way. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20050902.wcanship0902/BNStory/National/ OK - it is a small navy...we all know it is a small navy...but at least they carry their own beer wherever they go.

Comment from MorningSun on 2005-09-02

2005-09-02T21:42:54Z

ty so much for the link!! Also I wanted to add this comment. I am very much a civilian, with a background in retail management and trucking. I suspect there is alot of food hoarding going on by those that are looting. Stores in general have a week to two weeks before they run out of food in an emergency. ( note can goods etc are waterproof ) Also even the government personal disaster guides tell people keep 4 days of food.You explained so well why ! Another note. once the hurricane was headed in , any truck that could get a load away from the hurricane did. Trucking will be a little disrupted. 2 days shutdown on 9-11 cause 1 week of backup and that was without a gas problem. Currently some loads going there/client-side are paying HUGE rates before their factories will shut down because of lack of product to produce goods. President Bush did do one thing right when he ordered certain suspentions in DOT regulations for emergency relief. Those trucks have to get there. Some loads headed there will suddenly be considered " hot loads " So road safety could end up an issue as the traffic flow gets hectic. All those trucks have to park somewhere. And no loads coming out mean traveling empty ( dead heading ) another safety issue. And yes we did need a spokesperson during all this. Something else that should be noted in dealing with any future disasters. The one cruel-ironic thing is this is National Disaster Preparedness Month. Perhaps instead of sitting in offices ... they need to go and actually observe/ work this disaster for on hands training. gawd , I should just write my own blog or something.

Comment from John of Argghhh! on 2005-09-02

2005-09-02T20:34:46Z

Heh. Blake, that's an interesting point - but you aren't describing the FEMA people I worked with... but that *was* five years ago. They were hands-on, get down and dirty people. And the FEMA reservists, who did a lot of "TOC" manning, were many of them retired military. Like I said - if I could, I'd go offer to take a shift.

Comment from Blake Kirk on 2005-09-02

2005-09-02T20:30:43Z

Another major problem with this whole situation is that FEMA is run by clueless dweebs who don't seem to have the slightest idea how to obtain make use of information that doesn't come from their own sources. By way of example, CNN had been reporting on conditions at the Morial Convention Center for more than 24 hours before any of those idiots at FEMA noticed that there were several thousand refugees there in addition to the mob at the Superdome. Hell, a competent S-2 NCO who saw those reports on CNN would have alerted his boss to the fact that there was another site requiring relief pretty much as soon as he saw them. It might take a bit of work to discover that the convention center is all the way downtown on the riverfront, but that's relatively easy once someone realizes it's important. Say what you want about the MNM and their politics, but they are the fuctional equivalent of a major intelligence-gathering system, they work on somebody else's nickel, and the smart operator USES the information they make available. My own personal opinion is that FEMA should be restricted to handing out reconstruction money and that the job of planning and executing immediate response to disasters such as this should be handed back to the military. We're a heck of a lot better at it than FEMA seems to be, if for no other reason than the fact that military leaders tend to go look for themselves. Compare LTG Honore on the streetcorner in downtown NO with a cell-phone in one hand as he directs traffic with the other vs the nicely pressed FEMA people in their air-conditioned crisis center. The FEMA people don't seem to want to get any closer to the problem than Baton Rouge, and thqat's NOT the way to get out and deal with the immediate problems in a situation like this.

Comment from John of Argghhh! on 2005-09-02

2005-09-02T20:22:44Z

Actually, ES - I think you made a good point - appoint Guiliani as the Federal Coordinating Officer. He's been here, done this. An excellent choice.

Comment from kat-missouri on 2005-09-02

2005-09-02T20:13:25Z

I hate to agree with a certain number of people, but I believe that the lack of national voice from any sort of national spokesperson was a complete political failure on the President's part. When it turns out that thousands of people died and many from exposure and there has been no voice telling people what is being put together and how long it will be and where it is coming from, it seems like the government sat on their asses and let people die. I know that's not true, but I'm telling you what it looked like. I should know because I just spent five days with my crazy brother watching news and he's been ranting about it within 24 hours. By 48 hours I was starting to worry and by yesterday, when a little news was trickling in about the NG being mobilized, but I still saw people stuck on overpasses and at the superdrome and then being turned away from areas, I as getting pissed because I couldn't see what was going on. I couldn't hear. I knew SOMETHING was happening, but there was no info. That is the worst. And, that has been my chief complaint about this admin, they are crappy communicaters. They've sucked over terrorism, they've sucked over the war and they are sucking on this right now. Mr. Bush got all sorts of smart folks on his cabinet, but he failed his board of directors by not hiring a savy spokesman/salesman. karl rove be damned, he might be good at big splashy campaigns, but he is NOT the spokesperson and they have no face. There is no face but President Bush and Rumsfeld and Condi. There is no person that you can point to and, when you see their face, you know they speak for the President in these times of need until he can come out and speak to the press and the people. It is a small, but important failure of leadership

Comment from kat-missouri on 2005-09-02

2005-09-02T20:04:03Z

Eagle Speak...I'd like to agree with you about the convoy trucks "speaking a lot more clearly" about what's been going on. You see, while John was nice enough to explain the logistics and I have some clue about it from disaster planning with healthcare companies, your average person has no idea what it takes to get that stuff together and get it down there. We know that it takes several days to assess, plan and execute. We know that "convoys" just aren't sitting at a base near by. You average folks only see the suffering and want to alleviate it. from there view, the government was nowhere to be found. Nowhere. Not only were they not in NO (except for the coast guard) they really weren't on the screen telling anyone what they were doing. It just seems like they appeared out of no where after five days of sheer terror. Now, I realize that there is such a thing as doing and not talking, but just like certain other events that shall go unmentioned, calm leadership that tells people things are happening is necessary. If you really want to know what the President was probably doing, he was probably having an incredible discussion about what the hell they were going to do now that 25% of the US oil infrastructure was damaged or wiped out and the panic that was bound to ensue.

Comment from EagleSpeak on 2005-09-02

2005-09-02T19:47:53Z

No, you were clear enough- but Mr. Bush is not, on TV, particulary charismatic (though he has had his moments) or articulate - he does delegate well and, judging by his tour of Biloxi, does exceptionally well one on one. The Homeland Security boss and the head of FEMA may be good guys, but none of the crowd is "Rudy-esque." Having a large number of aid trucks show up this morning speak a lot more clearly of what's been going on in the background than a poorly delivered speech might have. He should probably get Mr. Guiliani to front for the mission.

Comment from John of Argghhh! on 2005-09-02

2005-09-02T19:29:45Z

I think perhaps I wasn't clear, ES. The pros (even though NORTHCOM is handling their very first major disaster from the mil side) were really already doing that. What wasn't happening was anyone coherently portraying that, from the political side. The President needed to be Guiliani, in a sense. Strike the tone of toughness, anger, and defiance, and lay out, in general but cogent terms, what was being done. I don't think that has been done yet... but I may have missed it.

Comment from EagleSpeak on 2005-09-02

2005-09-02T18:56:44Z

Nice to see an experienced eye focused on this- the misundestood world of logistics flow into a damaged area needs more exposure... On the other hand, if the PIO effort had been what you suggest, I think the President would have been accused of being out of touch ... instead, he properly delegated and used his authority to get the log pile rolling...now he's out among the victims..,

Comment from John of Argghhh! on 2005-09-02

2005-09-02T18:32:14Z

Actually, the trucking companies are doing a lot of that gratis. Just have to ask. All the major freight haulers here in the KC area are making gratis runs next week, when they'll be ready to take the stuff in and start distributing it. I wish I was truly retired... so I could hitch a ride with the Red Cross team leaving from here this weekend. Or, even better, be a FEMA reservist.

Comment from cw4(ret)billt on 2005-09-02

2005-09-02T18:08:42Z

Good luck getting them from Jersey--about the only ones not in Iraq or the Sinai are the staff weenies with their Combat Laptops. However, they did open up the armories as dropoff points for cases of bottled water. I'll let you know what happens when they finally realize they'll have to rent an 18-wheeler to get the stuff down there...

Comment from caltechgirl on 2005-09-02

2005-09-02T17:47:52Z

They won't send regular army when they can get guard troops. Even if they have to come from New Jersey. It's just that much cheaper on the feds. Also, what I haven't seen anyone point out yet is that in every other major disaster in recent memory, there was some nearby infrastructure that could be utilized. In this case all of the nearby first response resources were under water for 90,000 square miles. For example, in Andrew, there were ambulances, hospitals, etc less than 100 miles away that were able to take people. People were not so displaced. Much of the problem here is that there is NOWHERE to put anyone anywhere near their flooded and destroyed homes. That makes it EXTRA difficult to take care of business.

Comment from BloodSpite on 2005-09-02

2005-09-02T16:54:31Z

Don't forget that when ever someone needs money, whose is the first monetary pie everyone wants a piece of? DoD. So we have a DoD who used to have many more capabilties and the money to make things happen whom has been hamstrung by previous administrations for years. Toss in the cutbacks, and we've made it harder to respond to things like this than it could have been. Just my thoughts