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May 02, 2006

My Take on Israel Attacking Iran

This is the note I sent Jonah, as part of my additional duties of being one of Jonah Goldberg's "Guys".

Jonah,

Israel is capable of doing it by air but I think we'll all be impressed (but not surprised) by its sophisticated and multifaceted makeup.

This will be a classic four-dimensional operation (land, sea, air and space)...and there's a fifth (sixth?, seventh?, n+1?) dimension I'm sure I'm missing. The first "boom" will, I suspect, not be made by a gravity weapon (free-fall bomb) either. I think we will be surprised by the principal delivery platform, too. That's pure speculation on my part, but this is a mission that will draw heavily on the creativity of some of the wiliest minds in the campaign planning world and I think the results will (rightly) surprise us. One can hope, anyway.

Some of the Iranian vulnerabilities will not be as glaring as one would hope thanks to their Russian and Chinese clients, but Israel has probably factored that in. They safely bet on the Russian, um, flexibility and open-mindedness in its space lift client selection process in reducing, to a degree at least, some of the unknowns.

In any event, I hope they don't do it. It'll be a short-run success.

The only way to truly neutralize this threat is with a strategic campaign in which kinetics play a very minor role. But, given the West's fatigue and the present Administration's ineptitude in waging the information war at home and abroad, our taking that road with any signs of commitment, much less success, is breathtakingly wishful thinking...and the Israelis know that better than anyone.

Your Airpower Guy