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April 24, 2006

Iran and Nukes.

[My trolling for Dusty worked. He left a looong comment, which most people won't read. Since he gets masthead billing 'round here, I yanked *most* of it up here. His personal update I left in the comments of the "Requiem for the Missing" post. -The Armorer]

[I] Have thought about posting stuff but people keep beating me to the punch on just about everything. I will say, however, that you guys missed a big one--Scott Crossfield's untimely demise dodging thunderstorms in Georgia. I guess it was as good a way to go as any for an 84-year-old aviator who was, at one time, the fastest man alive and Chuck Yeager's sole no-sh*t peer. None of us are bulletproof and his Hangar Party in Valhalla is one I regret I'll miss (almost).

I'm a little surprised on how few have taken up the question on what the Iranians' options REALLY are when they get The Bomb. Counterforce or Countervalue?

They're Islamofascist/Nazi in orientation so I'd say wallow in the visceral pleasures of killing as many "pigs and monkeys" (Jooooooos!) as possible regardless of the Israeli civilian population status as noncombatants. And let's not go into the Muslim collateral damage on Israeli Arabs. Price of greatness I guess.

Problem is, to make the strike effective, there has to be the element of surprise. I think Mossad may make that a tad challenging (not to mention NORAD probably passing a call to Jerusalem about some IR plumes coming out of Persia). Moreover, I think the IAF's OTH surveillance capabilities will add to the problem.

Then there's the issue of an Israel that, when actually faced with a hostile state publicly committed to their destruction and that can range them with nuclear Shahab IIIs, will probably have a flight or two on 5-minute alert with their own load of Party Favors. Don't forget the Israeli version of the Patriots as well...interesting anti-missile programming there, but I digress.

But let's say the modern incarnation of Darius the Great slips one (or two) in. Put it this way: if you are a Muslim...not an Arab, but a Muslim, better yet say a blue-eyed, blond-haired Bosnian member of the Umma...what would your response be to the US nuking Mecca? Revenge, even if it takes generations, is not out of the question, no? You don't have to be an brown-skinned Bedou living in the Holy City to take this as a personal, spiritual affront of cosmic magnitude, eh?

Now let's say it's Tel Aviv. There are a lot a Jews that that bomb's gonna miss. And if you think the hunt-em-down-and-rub-'em-out-ala-the-Munich-revenge-killings was harsh, you ain't seen nuthin' yet.

But let's say Iran sees the Fires of Hell on the Pigs and Monkeys as a bit of a stretch for the moment and instead takes a liking to the surrogate delivery option on the Infidel in, say, Long Beach or Liverpool or Sydney. So they pass a "shape" or two to their Hezbullah bros. Where do you think the subsequent victims are going to first go looking to determine on whom to open those first 100+ cans of retaliatory Atomic Whup-ass? Especially when the enrichment process leaves such a unique signature?

I guess what the Iranians are going to find is that their blackmail scheme on the Straits of Hormuz (to say nothing of the raving about wiping Israel off the map) may have some unintended effects. In fact, the day they detonate their first device in the underground test range will be the same day a message lands on the senior Ayatollah's desk (or pillow, or magic carpet, or whatever those turbaned nutbags use as desktops these days). It will probably say something like this (I paraphrase, of course),

"Welcome to the club, sport. The membership dues are as follows: one day of detonations (number to be determined by weather patterns, responding nations, and stockpile sources) for every nuclear detonation that occurs at ground level or above ground outside the physical borders of the Islamic Republic of Iran not initiated by your fellow club members. We deem this appropriate given the fact that yours is the only nation publicly committed to the offensive first-use of this particular weapon of mass destruction.

Addendum: Additional text has been added at the request of the United States, the United Kingdom and the French Republic, to wit: 'Go ahead, make our day.'"

I mean, c'mon--these guys have all but painted a target on their backs with this behavior. "We are going to get The Bomb and we act like maniacs and we're damned proud of it." That's not credibility, that's begging for a god-like ass-kicking, isn't it? Sheesh.

I mean really, when the sun rises in the West, so to speak, where are all heads gonna turn? And how fast do they think the ICBMs/SLBMs/A/SLCMs' guidance packages can be reprogrammed ... assuming they won't have already been zeroed on Teheran for just this contingency?

Trust me guys, your nuclear ambitions won't lead to an umbrella ...'ll be a crosshairs.

[...and the results will look something like this... only the craters will be larger]