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March 03, 2005

RFOs

In the combat planning business we have RFIs, Requests For Information. As bloggers, those expand to RFOs, Requests For Opinions. I have received two of those, so I better get busy!

The first one is easy. The Draft. I am not a fan, though I am open to arguments. One reason I am not a fan is because if we wish to impose a draft - we first need to officially gut check our strategic thought regarding how we are going to go about things - from all out war to peace-keeping. Unfortunately, the nature of politics in a democracy makes that kind of long-range planning difficult. A John Kerry administration is going to have a hugely different strategic paradigm than a Bush administration.

That said - the two articles cited for me were:

Carter and Glastris in the Washington Monthly.

Austin Bay on his website.

Where do I stand? Pretty much in the Austin Bay camp, with room for discussion. Any points I really have to make on the particular point-counterpoint are made by Austin in his response, and the comments are instructive as well.

Okay, second issue. Jack at Random Fate asked me to comment on his post here, where he takes issue with comments Dean Esmay makes in this post.

All in all - I'm with Jack, mostly, though I do think we have the right to a little payback when it's in our interest. And I do like his use of the historical record in defense of his position.

Yes, Allies get to make choices. And they get to live with the consequences. Britain should get favored status for siding with us. France and Germany should get to live with the consequences of their decisions, as well. Fair's fair. I've got friends, and I've got buddies. I don't maltreat my friends - but I invite buddies over for drinks, to wander through the Arsenal, and to party in the comments.

I like Mark Steyn, and value his observations. I also like and admire Dean Esmay (who is a buddy) - but something else is true about blogging and opinion writing - you have to take a stand, and that usually means being pretty stark. That's the difference between Op-Eds and articles. In and of themselves they can spark debate - but if you are always in the mushy middle, there is no reason to debate (Hence, there is often not much debate here... hmmm, good thing I do Gun Pr0n and have good parties - even if that probably keeps us from getting linked by Hewitt, Bay, and other, more serious folk).

I also agree with Dan Schneider's point in the comments, though I don't agree with his cited article. I decided I didn't have the time to address that in this format when it was first pointed out to me, but since I talk about it in my comment on Jack's site, I should link it here so you can go see for yourself what you think of Dan's argument. He's worth the read, regardless of if you agree or not.

Oh, and Jack - you're a buddy too.

Carter and Glastris:

Respond to this Article March 2005

The Case for the Draft
America can remain the world's superpower.
Or it can maintain its current all-volunteer military.
It can't do both.

By Phillip Carter and Paul Glastris
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The United States has occupied many foreign lands over the last half century—Germany and Japan in World War II, and, on a much smaller scale, Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo in the 1990s. In all these cases, we sponsored elections and handed-off to democratic governments control of countries that were relatively stable, secure, and reasonably peaceful.
In Iraq, we failed to do this, despite heroic efforts by U.S. and coalition troops. The newly-elected Iraqi government inherits a country in which assassinations, kidnappings, suicide bombings, pipeline sabotages, and beheadings of foreigners are daily occurrences. For the last eight months, the ranks of the insurgency have been growing faster than those of the security forces of the provisional Iraqi government—and an alarming number of those government forces are secretly working for the insurgency. American-led combat operations in Ramadi and Fallujah killed large numbers of the enemy, but at the price of fanning the flames of anti-American hatred and dispersing the insurrection throughout Iraq. Despite nearly two years of effort, American troops and civilian administrators have failed to restore basic services to much of the central part of the country where a majority of Iraqis live. The U.S. military has not even been able to secure the 7-mile stretch of highway leading from the Baghdad airport to the Green Zone where America's own embassy and the seat of the Iraqi government are headquartered.

How we got to this point is by now quite obvious. Even many of the war's strongest supporters admit that the Bush administration grievously miscalculated by invading Iraq with too few troops and then by stubbornly refusing to augment troop numbers as the country descended into violent mayhem after the fall of Saddam.

This analysis, of course, presumes that it was ever possible to invade and quickly pacify Iraq, given the country's religious-ethnic divisions and history of tyranny. But it also presumes that the fault is primarily one of judgment: that the president and key senior military officials made a mistake by accepting Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's theory that a “transformed” American military can prevail in war without great masses of ground troops. That judgment was indeed foolish; events have shown that, while a relatively modest American force can win a stunning battlefield victory, such a force is not enough to secure the peace.

But there's a deeper problem, one that any president who chose to invade a country the size of Iraq would have faced. In short, America's all-volunteer military simply cannot deploy and sustain enough troops to succeed in places like Iraq while still deterring threats elsewhere in the world. Simply adding more soldiers to the active duty force, as some in Washington are now suggesting, may sound like a good solution. But it's not, for sound operational and pragmatic reasons. America doesn't need a bigger standing army; it needs a deep bench of trained soldiers held in reserve who can be mobilized to handle the unpredictable but inevitable wars and humanitarian interventions of the future. And while there are several ways the all-volunteer force can create some extra surge capacity, all of them are limited.

The only effective solution to the manpower crunch is the one America has turned to again and again in its history: the draft. Not the mass combat mobilizations of World War II, nor the inequitable conscription of Vietnam—for just as threats change and war-fighting advances, so too must the draft. A modernized draft would demand that the privileged participate. It would give all who serve a choice over how they serve. And it would provide the military, on a “just in time” basis, large numbers of deployable ground troops, particularly the peacekeepers we'll need to meet the security challenges of the 21st century.

America has a choice. It can be the world's superpower, or it can maintain the current all-volunteer military, but it probably can't do both.

Plowing a field with a Ferrari

Before the invasion of Iraq, Army Chief of Staff Eric Shinseki and Army Secretary Thomas White advised Rumsfeld that many more troops would be needed to secure Iraq (something on the order of 250,000 to 300,000). Secretary of State Colin Powell, whose State Department was shut out of the post-war planning process, also privately argued for a bigger force. A RAND Corporation analysis, published in summer 2003, offered a range of estimates for what size force would be necessary in Iraq. Using troops-to-population ratios from previous occupations, RAND projected that, two years after the invasion, it would take anywhere from 258,000 troops (the Bosnia model), to 321,000 (post-World War II Germany), to 526,000 (Kosovo) to secure the peace.

None of these figures seems, at first glance, unachievable for a U.S. military comprised of 1.4 million active-duty troops, 870,900 reservists, and 110,000 individual ready reservists (soldiers who have served their tour of duty and are not training with the reserves but who can by statute still be called up for service). And yet an Iraq deployment that has never exceeded 153,000 ground personnel has put so much stress on the military that a senior Army Reserve official has candidly stated that current rotation policies will lead to a “broken force.” How can that be?

To answer that question, begin by deducting virtually the entire Navy and Air Force from the head count; the Iraq occupation has been almost exclusively a ground game, hence an Army and Marine operation. Next, consider that the United States sends into combat not individual soldiers but units, complete with unit equipment sets, unit leaders, and an organizational structure that facilitates command, control, and logistical support. So instead of counting individual soldiers—a meaningless exercise—one must look at how many units the United States could theoretically put on the ground if it wanted to mobilize every active and reserve soldier available. And if you do that, you come to a figure of roughly 600,000 troops. That's the total number of deployable soldiers that the United States could theoretically have called upon to man the initial invasion.

In practice, however, the Pentagon would never have sent that many troops to Iraq, for good reasons: It would have left the defense cupboard bare and served as an open invitation to America's enemies to make trouble elsewhere in the world. Massing a 600,000 force would have meant not only pulling nearly all front-line troops out of Korea, but also mobilizing the poorly-resourced divisions of the National Guard, the third-string crew that the president can call on when the first string (active troops) and the second string (the Guard's elite “enhanced” reserve brigades) are depleted.

Given the need to hold troops in reserve for deterrence purposes, the Pentagon had perhaps 400,000 troops available for the invasion. Yet that number includes many troops in specialized fields that are of little or no use in desert warfare or peacekeeping—off-loading equipment in sea ports, for instance. Such troops could have been reshaped into provisional infantry units, as the Army has done with artillery and air-defense formations, but that would've taken time. The number of troops with units that would actually have been of use in Iraq was probably closer to the figures that Gen. Shinseki and Secretary White have suggested: 250,000 to 300,000—in other words, the lower end of what RAND estimated would be required for success.

But even that number is deceptive. It is the size of the force that could have been initially sent into Iraq, not the number that could have realistically been sustained there. Because so many soldiers in the all-volunteer military are married with families (compared to conscript armies), and because soldiers must periodically be induced or persuaded to voluntarily reenlist, the Pentagon must rotate its forces in and out of theater every 12 months or so in order to maintain morale and reenlistment. Thus, just as a civilian police department must hire three to four police officers for every one cop on the beat, so too must the U.S. military have three to four soldiers for every one serving in Iraq.

The Pentagon, then, could have realistically kept those initial 250,000 to 300,000 troops in place only for a limited time—perhaps a year, certainly not more than two. That might have been enough time to pacify the country, especially if higher troop numbers at the outset would have quelled the early looting and disorder. Then again, a year or two might not have been sufficient time to beat back an insurgency which, we now know, was to some extent planned in advance of the invasion. In that case, keeping 250,000 to 300,000 troops in Iraq for two years or longer would have risked so lowering morale and reenlistment rates as to destroy the all-volunteer force. It would have been like plowing a field with a Ferrari; it could have been done, but only once. Taking the need for rotations into account, then, the U.S. military can comfortably handle something like 80,000 troops in Iraq at any one time. The actual number on the ground has averaged 133,286 for the last two years, and more than 150,000 soldiers are in Iraq now.

That's a woefully insufficient number for the task. Yet it is pushing the outside limits of what the current force structure can handle. It has meant imposing “stop-loss” emergency measures to prevent soldiers from exiting the service. It has required deploying nearly every active-duty brigade, including one previously committed elsewhere in Korea. It has meant raiding the seed corn of military readiness by deploying the Army's elite “opposing force” training units—seasoned soldiers who play the enemy in mock exercises to build the skills of greener troops before they are sent into battle. It has necessitated calling up all 15 of the National Guard's enhanced readiness brigades, as well as poorly-resourced National Guard divisions that have not been mobilized en masse since the Korean War. It has led the Army Reserve Chief Lt. Gen. James Helmly to write in a recent memo that the Reserve will be unable to meet its commitments without substantial use of the Army's involuntary mobilization authorities under federal law. As of Dec. 15, 2004, the Army Reserve retained just 37,515 deployable soldiers out of a total of 200,366—almost no cushion at all. And in the final two months of last year, the Reserves missed their enlistment targets last year by 30 percent—a sign of even greater problems to come.

All this for a war that most planners consider to be a medium-sized conflict—nothing like what the United States faced in World War I, World War II, or the Cold War. And while threats of that magnitude aren't anywhere on the horizon, there are plenty of quite possible scenarios that could quickly overwhelm us—an implosion of the North Korean regime, a Chinese attack on Taiwan, worsening of the ethnic cleansing in the Sudan, or some unforeseen humanitarian nightmare. Already we have signaled to bad actors everywhere the limits of our power. Military threats might never have convinced the Iranians to give up their nuclear program. But it's more than a little troubling that ruling Iranian mullahs can publicly and credibly dismiss recent administration saber-rattling by pointing to the fact that our forces are pinned down in Iraq.

Stress test

Every 20 years or so for the past century, America has found it necessary, for national security reasons, to send at least half a million troops overseas into harm's way, and to keep them there for years at a time. It did so in World War I, sending 4.1 million doughboys and Marines to Europe. In World War II, it mobilized 16 million for the war effort. America sent more than 3 million grunts to fight in Korea against the North Koreans and Chinese, in the first hot war of the Cold War. It rotated 5.1 million soldiers and Marines through Vietnam over a decade, with 543,400 stationed there at the height of that war in April 1969. And more recently, America sent 550,000 ground troops to eject Saddam's forces from Kuwait, as part of a ground force which totaled 831,500 with allied contributions from dozens of nations. Along the way, the United States military simultaneously fought small wars in Greece, Lebanon, El Salvador, Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo, requiring the commitment of thousands more. This ability to deploy large numbers of troops overseas for long periods of time has been the price of America's superpower status—what President John Kennedy alluded to in his inaugural address when he said America would bear any burden to assure the survival and the success of liberty.

There's no reason to think that America will be exempt from paying that price in the future. Even those who don't support the Bush policy of using unilateral force to democratize the Middle East (and we don't), and who prefer to work through military alliances whenever possible (and we do), should understand the need to increase American troop strength. The international community failed to act in Rwanda largely because the United States chose not to send troops; our NATO allies sent soldiers into Bosnia and Kosovo only because we put substantial numbers of ours in, too. The same will hold true for just about any other major war or humanitarian intervention in the future.

What we're increasingly learning from Iraq is that the all-volunteer force, as presently built, cannot do that—indeed, it was consciously designed to be incapable of such deployments. Today's force was built for precisely the kinds of wars that Caspar Weinberger and Colin Powell envisioned in their doctrines: wars with explicit purposes, narrow parameters, and clear exit strategies. In other words, it was built for the kinds of wars the military prefers to fight, not necessarily the kinds of wars we have, as a nation, historically fought.

The evolution of this force owes much to Vietnam. After that war ended, the nation's senior generals devised a military structure called the “total force” concept to circumvent two of the great moral hazards they identified with Vietnam: the failure to mobilize the nation, with all of its strata and segments, for the war; and the reliance on young American conscripts, who were coerced by the state to kill or be killed.

Vietnam had been fought almost entirely by active-duty volunteers and conscripts. A great number of young men, including many from the nation's privileged classes, sought refuge in the reserves as a way out of duty in Vietnam. The total force concept entailed, first of all, the splitting of key war-fighting and support functions. Henceforth, active-duty troops would perform nearly all the traditional combat roles; reservists would provide most of the support functions, such as logistics and military policing. This ensured that future wars could not be fought without the heavy involvement of the reserves. Army Gen. Creighton Abrams and other leaders felt that this would be a check on the power of presidents to go to war because mass reserve call-ups typically require a great deal of political capital.

Second, Pentagon leaders replaced the conscripted military with an all-volunteer force that would recruit enlistees with pay and benefits like the civilian world. This all-volunteer model, they believed, would improve morale for the simple reason that all soldiers would be in the service by choice. It would also improve military effectiveness because if soldiers could be lured to stay longer by reenlisting, they could acquire higher levels of skill. The mantra of the new military became “send a bullet, not a man”; the modern American military came to embrace precision firepower over manpower in what historian Russell Weigley called the “American way of war.”

This all-volunteer military made good on nearly all these promises. After a rough period in the late 1970s, the U.S. military emerged a leaner, better force in the 1980s, proving itself in the small wars of that decade—Grenada, Libya, and Panama. Then came the first Gulf War—the apothesis of the all-volunteer, total force model. Coming off the Cold War, the Army had 18 divisions on active duty, in comparison to 10 today, and had little in the way of a pressing commission with the imminent collapse of the Soviet Union. By mobilizing seven of these Army divisions and two Marine divisions, in addition to the reserves and ready reserves, military leaders were able to send half a million troops to the Saudi desert. But because that war lasted just months, largely due to U.S. reluctance to invade and occupy Iraq, the system worked. Active-duty soldiers deployed for less than a year, without fear of immediately being sent back to fight; reservists were similarly tapped just once. Desert Storm did not break the all-volunteer force because that war was precisely the kind that the force had been designed to fight: a limited campaign for limited ends, of limited duration, and with a defined exit strategy.

Unfortunately, national security threats don't always conform to the military's precise specifications. The 1990s brought two wars, in Bosnia and Kosovo, requiring the long-term commitment of U.S. troops for peacekeeping. These were relatively modest-sized deployments. Yet the military leadership complained that they put undo stress on the system, and, indeed, then-Gov. George Bush lambasted the Clinton administration in 2000 for the way it managed military readiness, charging that the Kosovo war put two of the Army's 10 divisions out of action, hurting the nation's ability to respond to threats abroad. In the wake of September 11, the U.S. military mobilized tens of thousands of reservists for homeland security and sent thousands of elite infantrymen and special forces into the mountains of Afghanistan; neither mission conformed to the model of past wars.

Then came Operation Iraqi Freedom, and the real stress test began.

Five bad options

In theory, there are several ways to get out of the military manpower bind we find ourselves in. In reality, there are inherent limits to almost all of them. The first option—at least the one Democrats and moderate Republicans have talked most about—is to convince other countries to share the burden in Iraq. But that's not likely. Even if the security situation in Iraq improves and the Bush administration begins to share decision-making—something it's so far refused to do—European leaders would be extremely wary of trying to sell their citizens on sending troops to keep the peace in a war they expressly opposed. It may be possible to convince the Europeans and other developed nations to be more willing to contribute troops the next time there's an international need. But that, as we've seen, will require more U.S. troops, not fewer. Nor should it be the policy of the United States to have to rely on other countries' troops. We must be prepared to intervene unilaterally if necessary.

A second solution to the manpower crisis would be to rely more on private military contractors, whose use has exploded in recent years. Currently, more than 40,000 government contractors are on duty in Iraq, working in myriad jobs from security to reconstruction. The advantage of using contractors is that they provide surge capacity; they are hired only for the duration of an engagement. But according to Peter W. Singer, a research fellow at the Brookings Institution, these private armies also create problems. First, all costs considered, they're not necessarily less expensive for the military.

Second, private military contractors often compete with the military for personnel, so any growth in these contractors usually results in tension between military retention and contractor recruiting efforts. Third, contractors operate in a legal gray area where their financial and accounting activities are heavily regulated, but their operations are barely looked at. It's one thing to contract for truck drivers; it's another to hire contractors to guard Afghan President Hamid Karzai or work as interrogation linguists in the Abu Ghraib prison because the military has too few commandos or linguists in its own ranks. The military has probably already pushed the contractor concept about as far as it will go; expecting much more surge capacity from private industry is probably unrealistic.

A third possibility might be to follow the advice of several cutting-edge military reformers to radically transform today's military. According to these reformers, today's force was drawn up for a bygone age of massed superpower armies; it does not reflect today's threats. These visionaries would downsize the Navy, scrap some of the Army's mechanized divisions, and in these and other ways free up tens of thousands of troops to be redeployed into “soldier centric” units capable of doing everything along the spectrum from humanitarian relief in Banda Aceh to combat patrols in Baghdad. Under pressure from the Iraq mission, the military has taken some steps in this direction—for instance, by retraining and reequipping some army artillery and air defense units into military police units. But such moves have been incremental in nature thus far; the true scope of the problem is orders of magnitude larger than the Pentagon's current solution. And some day, a war may come which requires all kinds of combat power—from large land-based formations to ships capable of sailing through the Taiwan strait to legions of peacekeepers. The military cannot build additional capability simply by playing a shell game with its personnel; at some point, it must genuinely add more soldiers too, and in large numbers.

A fourth option, and the most obvious one, would be to simply increase the size of the active-duty force. This too has been discussed. During the 2004 campaign, Sen. John Kerry called for increasing the active-duty force by 40,000 troops. More recently, a bipartisan group of hawkish defense intellectuals published an open letter on The Weekly Standard Web site calling on Congress to add 25,000 ground troops each year for the next several years. And the Pentagon has announced some money for extra troops in the administration's latest budget. The problem with such proposals is that they underestimate both current manpower needs and the cost of forcing the all-volunteer military to grow.

In theory, one can always lure the next recruit, or retain the next soldier, by offering a marginally higher monetary incentive—but in reality, there are practical limits to such measures. The pool of people who might be convinced to join the Army is mainly comprised of healthy young people with high school degrees but no college plans. That pool is inherently limited, especially when the economy is heating up and there's a shooting war on. Last year, despite signing bonuses in the tens of thousands and other perks, military recruiters had to lower entry standards to meet their enlistment goals. The active force met its recruiting targets for 2004, but the reserves have found themselves increasingly struggling to bring enough soldiers in the door.

But it's the long-term cost issues that most militate against making the all-volunteer force bigger. Generals today are fond of saying that you recruit a soldier, but you retain their families. One reason the Army has resisted Congress' attempts to raise its end strength is that it does not want to embrace all of the costs associated with permanently increasing the size of the military, because it sees each soldier as a 30-year commitment—both to the soldier and his (or her) family. According to the Congressional Budget Office, each soldier costs $99,000 per year—a figure which includes medical care, housing, and family benefits.

The United States does not necessarily need a massive standing military all the time. What it needs is a highly trained professional force of a certain size—what we have right now is fine—backed by a massive surge capacity of troops in reserve to quickly augment the active-duty force in times of emergency. Sure, right now, the Army is light several hundred thousand deployable ground troops. But over the long term, the demands of Iraq will subside, the need for troops will decline, and it could be another decade or two before another mission that big comes along.

The problem is that under the all-volunteer system it's hard to fix the short-term problem (too few troops now) without creating long-term problems (too many troops later). And so, paying for the salaries and benefits and families of 50,000 or 500,000 extra soldiers on active duty over the course of their careers doesn't, from a military standpoint, make sense. Politically, it would put the senior military leadership in the position of convincing the American people to keep military budgets extremely high to pay for a huge standing army that isn't being used and might not be for years. It might be possible now to convince the public to add another 100,000 soldiers (annual cost: about $10 billion in personnel costs alone, not including equipment and training). But the generals rightly worry that this support will evaporate after Iraq stabilizes. Indeed, Americans have a long tradition dating back to the writing of Constitution, of refusing to support a large standing military unless the need is apparent. (The public paid for a much bigger all-volunteer military in the 1970s and 1980s, but only because of the obvious need to deter a massive Soviet army from threatening Europe; after the Berlin Wall fell, both political parties supported big cuts in troop strength). What we really need is the capability to rapidly mobilize and deploy a half million troops to project U.S. power abroad, and to be able to sustain them indefinitely while maintaining a reserve with which to simultaneously engage other enemies.

A fifth option would be to build this surge capacity into the reserves, instead of the active force. Under this plan, which some military personnel planners are already discussing, the army would radically bump up enlistment bonuses and other incentives to lure vastly more young people directly into the reserves than are being recruited now. Such a plan would have the advantage of creating the surge capacity the nation needs without saddling the nation with a large, standing professional army. But the disadvantages are substantial, too. For such a plan to work, the military would have to make a commitment, which thus far it never has, to fix the legendary resources problems and anemic readiness of the reserves. A great many reservists have gone through the crucible of combat in Afghanistan and Iraq, and yet still cope with vehicles that lack armor, weapons older than they are, and a paucity of training dollars. Also, the army would always (and rightly) insist that signing bonuses for reservists be substantially below those offered by to active-duty recruits. And even if bonuses and other reenumeration for both the active-duty and the reserves were to rise substantially, it is hard to see how the reserves could lure in a sufficient number of recruits without significantly lowering admissions standards. The real advantage of the all-volunteer force is its quality. If the military tries to recruit so many soldiers that it must substantially lower its entry requirements, then the all-volunteer force will lose its qualitative edge. This decrease in quality will have a cascade effect on discipline within the ranks, degrading combat effectiveness for these units.

A 21st-century draft

That leaves one option left for providing the military with sufficient numbers of high-quality deployable ground forces: conscription. America has nearly always chosen this option to staff its military in times of war. Today, no leading politician in either party will come anywhere near the idea—the draft having replaced Social Security as the third rail of American politics. This will have to change if the United States is to remain the world's preeminent power. Traditional conscription has its obvious downsides. On a practical level, draftees tend to be less motivated than volunteers. Because they serve for relatively short periods of time (typically two years), any investment made in their training is lost to the military once the draftees return to civilian life. And despite the current manpower shortage, there's no foreseeable scenario in which all 28 million young Americans currently of draft age would be needed. Above all else, there's the serious ethical problem that conscription means government compelling young adults to risk death, and to kill—an act of the state that seems contrary to the basic notions of liberty which animate our society.

In practice, however, our republic has decided many times throughout its history that a draft was necessary to protect those basic liberties. Even if you disagreed with the decision to invasion of Iraq, or think the president's rhetoric is demagogic and his policies disastrous, it is hard to argue that Islamic terrorism isn't a threat to freedom and security, at home and abroad. Moreover, any American, liberal or conservative, ought to have moral qualms about basing our nation's security on an all-volunteer force drawn disproportionately, as ours is, from America's lower socioeconomic classes. And the cost of today's war is being borne by an extremely narrow slice of America. Camp Pendleton, Calif., home to the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force, is also home to approximately one-seventh of the U.S. fatalities from Iraq. In theory, our democracy will not fight unpopular wars because the people who must bear the casualties can impose their will on our elected leaders to end a war they do not support. But when such a small fraction of America shoulders the burden—and pays the cost —of America's wars, this democratic system breaks down.

Nor are the practical considerations of a draft impossible to overcome. A draft lottery, of the kind that existed in the peacetime draft of the 1950s, with no exemptions for college students, would provide the military an appropriate and manageable amount of manpower without the class inequities that poisoned the national culture during Vietnam. Such a system, however, would not avoid the problem of flooding the military with less-than-fully-motivated conscripts.

A better solution would fix the weaknesses of the all-volunteer force without undermining its strengths. Here's how such a plan might work. Instead of a lottery, the federal government would impose a requirement that no four-year college or university be allowed to accept a student, male or female, unless and until that student had completed a 12-month to two-year term of service. Unlike an old-fashioned draft, this 21st-century service requirement would provide a vital element of personal choice. Students could choose to fulfill their obligations in any of three ways: in national service programs like AmeriCorps (tutoring disadvantaged children), in homeland security assignments (guarding ports), or in the military. Those who chose the latter could serve as military police officers, truck drivers, or other non-combat specialists requiring only modest levels of training. (It should be noted that the Army currently offers two-year enlistments for all of these jobs, as well as for the infantry.) They would be deployed as needed for peacekeeping or nation-building missions. They would serve for 12-months to two years, with modest follow-on reserve obligations.

Whichever option they choose, all who serve would receive modest stipends and GI Bill-type college grants. Those who sign up for lengthier and riskier duty, however, would receive higher pay and larger college grants. Most would no doubt pick the less dangerous options. But some would certainly select the military—out of patriotism, a sense of adventure, or to test their mettle. Even if only 10 percent of the one-million young people who annually start at four-year colleges and universities were to choose the military option, the armed forces would receive 100,000 fresh recruits every year. These would be motivated recruits, having chosen the military over other, less demanding forms of service. And because they would all be college-grade and college-bound, they would have—to a greater extent than your average volunteer recruit—the savvy and inclination to pick up foreign languages and other skills that are often the key to effective peacekeeping work.

A 21st-century draft like this would create a cascading series of benefits for society. It would instill a new ethic of service in that sector of society, the college-bound, most likely to reap the fruits of American prosperity. It would mobilize an army of young people for vital domestic missions, such as helping a growing population of seniors who want to avoid nursing homes but need help with simple daily tasks like grocery shopping. It would give more of America's elite an experience of the military. Above all, it would provide the all-important surge capacity now missing from our force structure, insuring that the military would never again lack for manpower. And it would do all this without requiring any American to carry a gun who did not choose to do so.

The war in Iraq has shown us, and the world, many things: the bloody costs of inept leadership; the courage of the average American soldier; the hunger for democracy among some of the earth's most oppressed people. But perhaps more than anything, Iraq has shown that our military power has limits. As currently constituted, the U.S. military can win the wars, but it cannot win the peace, nor can it commit for the long term to the stability and security of a nation such as Iraq. Our enemies have learned this, and they will use that knowledge to their advantage in the next war to tie us down and bleed us until we lose the political will to fight.

If America wishes to retain its mantle of global leadership, it must develop a military force structure capable of persevering under these circumstances. Fortunately, we know how to build such a force. We have done it many times in the past. The question is: Do we have the will to do so again?

Phillip Carter is an attorney and former Army captain who writes on national security issues for The Washington Monthly. Paul Glastris is the editor in chief of The Washington Monthly.
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Austin Bay - and commenters.

Austin Bay Blog 3/2/2005 A Draft?—The Washington Monthly Story Doesn’t Make the Case Filed under: General— site admin @ 9:54 am I’m a fan of Phil Carter, but his Washington Monthly article arguing for a military draft doesn’t make the case.

At least not at the moment. Why? Start with the first two paragraphs:

The United States has occupied many foreign lands over the last half century—Germany and Japan in World War II, and, on a much smaller scale, Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo in the 1990s. In all these cases, we sponsored elections and handed-off to democratic governments control of countries that were relatively stable, secure, and reasonably peaceful.
In Iraq, we failed to do this, despite heroic efforts by U.S. and coalition troops. The newly-elected Iraqi government inherits a country in which assassinations, kidnappings, suicide bombings, pipeline sabotages, and beheadings of foreigners are daily occurrences. For the last eight months, the ranks of the insurgency have been growing faster than those of the security forces of the provisional Iraqi government—and an alarming number of those government forces are secretly working for the insurgency. American-led combat operations in Ramadi and Fallujah killed large numbers of the enemy, but at the price of fanning the flames of anti-American hatred and dispersing the insurrection throughout Iraq. Despite nearly two years of effort, American troops and civilian administrators have failed to restore basic services to much of the central part of the country where a majority of Iraqis live. The U.S. military has not even been able to secure the 7-mile stretch of highway leading from the Baghdad airport to the Green Zone where America’s own embassy and the seat of the Iraqi government are headquartered.

The democratic surge in the Middle East has put a hard date-time stamp on this commentary– as in out-dated and strategically wrong. See my post on GEN Abizaid’s testimony about the size of the Iraq’s terror clique and its waning power to intimidate.

I don’t know his co-author, Paul Glastris (other than the bio says he’s editor-in-chief of Washington Monthly), but Phil’s a first-rate troop. Still, the take in these two paragraphs smacks of DNC– that’s not an allegation, that’s a comparison. I think a case can be made for the draft (see my comments at the end of this post), and at some point this discussion needs to happen. Give Carter and Glastris credit: much of the article addresses important nuts and bolts issues regarding military manpower requirements. However– for the time being REP Charles Rangel’s political gamesmanship with the draft issue has poisoned rational and civil debate on the issue. The attempt to use “draft fear” to motivate college students to vote for John Kerry flopped – but that gambit’s toxins remain. Last fall I found flyers outside of my seminar class alledging a secret Bush plan to reinstitute the draft. That’s right, a conspiracy. Pish. One evening one of my students asked me about the issue after class. My response: “I’d love to discuss issues like universal military service or government service. But not in a climate of scare tactics. This is a sick lie.”

That being said, here’s a paragraph that is the basis for a reasoned discussion:

What we’re increasingly learning from Iraq is that the all-volunteer force, as presently built, cannot do that—indeed, it was consciously designed to be incapable of such deployments. Today’s force was built for precisely the kinds of wars that Caspar Weinberger and Colin Powell envisioned in their doctrines: wars with explicit purposes, narrow parameters, and clear exit strategies. In other words, it was built for the kinds of wars the military prefers to fight, not necessarily the kinds of wars we have, as a nation, historically fought.

The article then lists what it calls “five bad options” for addressing manpower needs. I’ll quote it at length:

In theory, there are several ways to get out of the military manpower bind we find ourselves in. In reality, there are inherent limits to almost all of them. The first option—at least the one Democrats and moderate Republicans have talked most about—is to convince other countries to share the burden in Iraq. But that’s not likely. Even if the security situation in Iraq improves and the Bush administration begins to share decision-making—something it’s so far refused to do—European leaders would be extremely wary of trying to sell their citizens on sending troops to keep the peace in a war they expressly opposed. It may be possible to convince the Europeans and other developed nations to be more willing to contribute troops the next time there’s an international need. But that, as we’ve seen, will require more U.S. troops, not fewer. Nor should it be the policy of the United States to have to rely on other countries’ troops. We must be prepared to intervene unilaterally if necessary.

A second solution to the manpower crisis would be to rely more on private military contractors, whose use has exploded in recent years. Currently, more than 40,000 government contractors are on duty in Iraq, working in myriad jobs from security to reconstruction. The advantage of using contractors is that they provide surge capacity; they are hired only for the duration of an engagement. But according to Peter W. Singer, a research fellow at the Brookings Institution, these private armies also create problems. First, all costs considered, they’re not necessarily less expensive for the military.

Second, private military contractors often compete with the military for personnel, so any growth in these contractors usually results in tension between military retention and contractor recruiting efforts. Third, contractors operate in a legal gray area where their financial and accounting activities are heavily regulated, but their operations are barely looked at. It’s one thing to contract for truck drivers; it’s another to hire contractors to guard Afghan President Hamid Karzai or work as interrogation linguists in the Abu Ghraib prison because the military has too few commandos or linguists in its own ranks. The military has probably already pushed the contractor concept about as far as it will go; expecting much more surge capacity from private industry is probably unrealistic.

A third possibility might be to follow the advice of several cutting-edge military reformers to radically transform today’s military. According to these reformers, today’s force was drawn up for a bygone age of massed superpower armies; it does not reflect today’s threats. These visionaries would downsize the Navy, scrap some of the Army’s mechanized divisions, and in these and other ways free up tens of thousands of troops to be redeployed into “soldier centric” units capable of doing everything along the spectrum from humanitarian relief in Banda Aceh to combat patrols in Baghdad. Under pressure from the Iraq mission, the military has taken some steps in this direction—for instance, by retraining and reequipping some army artillery and air defense units into military police units. But such moves have been incremental in nature thus far; the true scope of the problem is orders of magnitude larger than the Pentagon’s current solution. And some day, a war may come which requires all kinds of combat power—from large land-based formations to ships capable of sailing through the Taiwan strait to legions of peacekeepers. The military cannot build additional capability simply by playing a shell game with its personnel; at some point, it must genuinely add more soldiers too, and in large numbers.

A fourth option, and the most obvious one, would be to simply increase the size of the active-duty force. This too has been discussed. During the 2004 campaign, Sen. John Kerry called for increasing the active-duty force by 40,000 troops. More recently, a bipartisan group of hawkish defense intellectuals published an open letter on The Weekly Standard Web site calling on Congress to add 25,000 ground troops each year for the next several years. And the Pentagon has announced some money for extra troops in the administration’s latest budget. The problem with such proposals is that they underestimate both current manpower needs and the cost of forcing the all-volunteer military to grow.

In theory, one can always lure the next recruit, or retain the next soldier, by offering a marginally higher monetary incentive—but in reality, there are practical limits to such measures. The pool of people who might be convinced to join the Army is mainly comprised of healthy young people with high school degrees but no college plans. That pool is inherently limited, especially when the economy is heating up and there’s a shooting war on. Last year, despite signing bonuses in the tens of thousands and other perks, military recruiters had to lower entry standards to meet their enlistment goals. The active force met its recruiting targets for 2004, but the reserves have found themselves increasingly struggling to bring enough soldiers in the door.

But it’s the long-term cost issues that most militate against making the all-volunteer force bigger. Generals today are fond of saying that you recruit a soldier, but you retain their families. One reason the Army has resisted Congress’ attempts to raise its end strength is that it does not want to embrace all of the costs associated with permanently increasing the size of the military, because it sees each soldier as a 30-year commitment—both to the soldier and his (or her) family. According to the Congressional Budget Office, each soldier costs $99,000 per year—a figure which includes medical care, housing, and family benefits.

The United States does not necessarily need a massive standing military all the time. What it needs is a highly trained professional force of a certain size—what we have right now is fine—backed by a massive surge capacity of troops in reserve to quickly augment the active-duty force in times of emergency. Sure, right now, the Army is light several hundred thousand deployable ground troops. But over the long term, the demands of Iraq will subside, the need for troops will decline, and it could be another decade or two before another mission that big comes along…

… A fifth option would be to build this surge capacity into the reserves, instead of the active force. Under this plan, which some military personnel planners are already discussing, the army would radically bump up enlistment bonuses and other incentives to lure vastly more young people directly into the reserves than are being recruited now. Such a plan would have the advantage of creating the surge capacity the nation needs without saddling the nation with a large, standing professional army. But the disadvantages are substantial, too. For such a plan to work, the military would have to make a commitment, which thus far it never has, to fix the legendary resources problems and anemic readiness of the reserves. A great many reservists have gone through the crucible of combat in Afghanistan and Iraq, and yet still cope with vehicles that lack armor, weapons older than they are, and a paucity of training dollars. Also, the army would always (and rightly) insist that signing bonuses for reservists be substantially below those offered by to active-duty recruits. And even if bonuses and other reenumeration for both the active-duty and the reserves were to rise substantially, it is hard to see how the reserves could lure in a sufficient number of recruits without significantly lowering admissions standards. The real advantage of the all-volunteer force is its quality. If the military tries to recruit so many soldiers that it must substantially lower its entry requirements, then the all-volunteer force will lose its qualitative edge. This decrease in quality will have a cascade effect on discipline within the ranks, degrading combat effectiveness for these units.

The article suggests what a 21st century draft could look like:

Here’s how such a plan might work. Instead of a lottery, the federal government would impose a requirement that no four-year college or university be allowed to accept a student, male or female, unless and until that student had completed a 12-month to two-year term of service. Unlike an old-fashioned draft, this 21st-century service requirement would provide a vital element of personal choice. Students could choose to fulfill their obligations in any of three ways: in national service programs like AmeriCorps (tutoring disadvantaged children), in homeland security assignments (guarding ports), or in the military. Those who chose the latter could serve as military police officers, truck drivers, or other non-combat specialists requiring only modest levels of training. (It should be noted that the Army currently offers two-year enlistments for all of these jobs, as well as for the infantry.) They would be deployed as needed for peacekeeping or nation-building missions. They would serve for 12-months to two years, with modest follow-on reserve obligations.

Whichever option they choose, all who serve would receive modest stipends and GI Bill-type college grants. Those who sign up for lengthier and riskier duty, however, would receive higher pay and larger college grants. Most would no doubt pick the less dangerous options. But some would certainly select the military—out of patriotism, a sense of adventure, or to test their mettle. Even if only 10 percent of the one-million young people who annually start at four-year colleges and universities were to choose the military option, the armed forces would receive 100,000 fresh recruits every year. These would be motivated recruits, having chosen the military over other, less demanding forms of service. And because they would all be college-grade and college-bound, they would have—to a greater extent than your average volunteer recruit—the savvy and inclination to pick up foreign languages and other skills that are often the key to effective peacekeeping work.

A 21st-century draft like this would create a cascading series of benefits for society. It would instill a new ethic of service in that sector of society, the college-bound, most likely to reap the fruits of American prosperity. It would mobilize an army of young people for vital domestic missions, such as helping a growing population of seniors who want to avoid nursing homes but need help with simple daily tasks like grocery shopping. It would give more of America’s elite an experience of the military. Above all, it would provide the all-important surge capacity now missing from our force structure, insuring that the military would never again lack for manpower. And it would do all this without requiring any American to carry a gun who did not choose to do so.

But from there the article returns to allegations of “inept leadership,” etc. As I said, it carries a date-time stamp.

I do agree that military service brings extraordinary benefits to our society and too many of America’s economic and intellectual elites shirk military service. Who has the hardest job in a democracy? Answer: a PFC, when he’s tackling a machine gun nest.

For the record, Rangel proposed a draft bill then when it came to the floor he voted against it.

Dirty pool exacts a penalty. I’d like to see Carter and Glastris paste Rangel for poisoning the manpower debate. Then, after a decent interval, and perhaps an apology from REP Rangel, we can return to this discussion.

UPDATE:Comments 1 and 2 expand on my argument. Here’s what I would say about the benefits of service. Military service seeded throughout society adds a special leaven – of common sense and common experience. That’s the bright side of what Carter and Glastris are proposing. As for the commenter’s notion that this is a trojan horse – that’s part of what I mean by the poisoned debate. Keel haul Rangel and the Kerry campaign for that.

UPDATE 2: I see Instapundit linked. Here’s a link to an article of mine on military manpower. “Grunt Work” dates from August 26, 2001 – right, pre-9/11. The article ran in the San Antonio Express-News and was picked up by the Pentagon’s Early Bird clipping service. The EBird gets read worldwide. The article produced a short ton of tut-tut hate mail from the Beltway suits. One letter called me a Luddite, etc.. A Luddite is something I am not. It would have been nice if national magazines were interested in the manpower subject and “grunt work” in early 2001, but they weren’t.

UPDATE 3: Comment 24, quoted in part:

“Those who chose the latter could serve as military police officers, truck drivers, or other non-combat specialists requiring only modest levels of training. “

These guys don’t know jack about training requirements. And they also have no freaking clue as to which MOS’s are taking most of the casualties in Iraq.

My take: Glad you pointed this out– a similar thought about truck drivers flashed through my mind when I read that sentence. Iraq has been an MP war from July 2003 on, and MPs are combat troops one minute, cops the next. Donald Sensing has made the very point about truck drivers taking casualties in Iraq. (I don’t have a link handy– visit www.donaldsensing.com .) He was discussing the Close Combat Badge proposasl that would exclude combat support and combat service support– even if they saw close combat. I suspect the political lean of Washington Monthly had a lot to do with the way this article is presented. This article is packed with hard slaps at the Bush Administration and ever-so-slightly-out-of-touch remarks like the one Commenter 24 notes. Instapundit says Washington Monthly promoted this particular article quite heavily. I wonder who Glastris had fact-check it, edit it, and for that matter, provide advice on presentation. The decision to go with “Iraq is a failure” as the lede was a huge strategic faux pas, but one a left-leaning DC magazine is/was all too-likely to make. That damages the intellectual utility of the article.

Many of the commenters are obviously military or ex-military and have hammered on the article’s shortcomings– thanks for posting. Manpower, however, is a complex issue. How we attract, select, train, and retain quality military personnel remains a major defense and social issue. That’s why I’m for discussing all options, and since I’m for discussing all options, that’s why I am completely ticked at Rangel and Kerry for their inexecuseable “the draft’s coming” campaign scare tactic. Am I for a draft? No– not now. But I know the burden and privilege of military service needs to be more broadly borne by our society. I have toyed with the idea of requiring every college or university that receives any type of federal aid money or grant money or scholarship money or student loan money to have a compulsory year of ROTC– yup, from your local community college on up. Professors who never served in the military –particularly sociology profs– would be required to take a “military service sensitivity training course” where they will learn how to curb any residual anti-military bigotry.

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“It would instill a new ethic of service in that sector of society”

How? In what sense does forcing people to do something that they don’t want to do create in them an ethic to do it?

What makes even less sense in this proposal is that it would create exactly the reverse of surge capacity. Since everyone would get their choice of what service to perform, when the military is needed one presumes is when most people would choose to tutor disadvantaged kids. Besides which, what’s the purpose of drafting people into roles like, “military police officers, truck drivers, or other non-combat specialists requiring only modest levels of training” when “It’s one thing to contract for truck drivers; it’s another to hire contractors to guard Afghan President Hamid Karzai or work as interrogation linguists in the Abu Ghraib prison because the military has too few commandos or linguists in its own ranks.”

Comment by ctl — 3/2/2005 @ 11:23 am

You’re right - the article has been proven wrong by subsequent events. Carter’s crystal ball malfunctioned, thankfully.

Comment by Jim Manning — 3/2/2005 @ 11:24 am

One thing I don’t see mentioned in the excerpts (haven’t got time to go read the whole thing now) is the work being done to train the Iraqis to take over their own defense. I realize we will have deployed soldiers there for a long time, but as more of the Iraqis become proficient, we will need less in the way of manpower. And as the Iraqis get their local governments up and working, they will start taking over some to all of the rebuilding and upkeep that our soldiers are currently also doing. Once again - there is a gradual decrease in the need for manpower.

Yes, I know there needs to be a revamping of the numbers and types of troops and I haven’t got the vaguest idea of what would be the right way to go in that regard. But we also have to make sure that we don’t over correct for a condition that is happening now and (even though it’s slow) is resolving itself over time.

I think the problem is flexibility. Each war or significant portion thereof, is different than others that have come before it. So, what was necessary to win WW2 is different than Korea, Vietnam, and currently Iraq. It’s very difficult to be flexible with such a huge military and most times we don’t find out what we really should have had in place until after the fact. That the military we have - as much as people seem bent on telling us it’s inadequacies - is able to perform at such a stellar level, shows us just how good the people are in our armed forces. I would like to see improvements, but not knee jerk reactions to changing situations.

Comment by Teresa — 3/2/2005 @ 11:38 am

You’re right - Rangel, “Rock the Vote” and, frankly, John Kerry, all poisoned any future debate about a draft. Bush HAD to promise that there will be no draft, and it is a promise he cannot break without wrecking the Republican Party for the next decade. Even a limited draft for domestic (ie homeland security) would be a bad idea - look at Canada in WW II with the “zombies” as they were called - eventually you have a pool of trained manpower and you use it for overseas service.

Also, what Carter does not address, is that 2 year enlistments are not long enough; although the Army does offer them, the hope is that the soldiers will re-enlist. I would argue that it takes about four to six months to properly train a soldier, ad another nine to twelve months while he or she becomes a really profficient soldier, so you’re looking at six to eight months of really useful service before release (though the process is compressed somewhat in wartime). Carter, as a ormer officer ought to understand why this is a bad idea. One of the biggest factors behind the historically low US casulties in the last three years is the extremely high level of proffessionalism and training in the Army.

Finally, Carter and Glastris don’t address the idea that this national service could have the unintended consequence of causing qualified applicants to avoid college altogether, never mind the legal arguments that these draftees woudl innevitably make when, having chosen the military service option for the higher bennies during peacetime, they get unexpectedly sent to war. We hear this argument already from the “soldiers as victims” crowd - how much stronger would it be if the soldiers were all draftees?

Comment by holdfast — 3/2/2005 @ 11:57 am

What confuses me is this: we’ve maintained large armies in the past. Didn’t Carter himself cite the 800k people we sent in Gulf War I in the absence of a draft? Why is it no longer possible to muster such a force today? I get that our recruitment goals are lower than they were, but why couldn’t they be raised back?

Comment by Jeff Licquia — 3/2/2005 @ 12:01 pm

Hmmmm.

Austin: I think your take on any sort of draft is incorrect. The current reorganization of the military is entirely designed to eliminate non-critical non-combat jobs. What you’re describing is an bloated organization that would be forced to create make-work jobs. It’s just not useful. Then there is the increasingly technical aspect of most military jobs. Even being in the infantry is tremendously different from when I was a Marine in 1982. Back then you had a rifle/M203 or M-60, and that was it. Now they’ve got GPS PDAs, squad level recon drones and combat robots. The plans for the next generation of infantry gear nows looks like something out of Star Wars. Hell have you kept up with the militarie’s attempt at creating chameleon battlegear? Computer driven uniforms equipped with tiny ccd cameras and coated with organic digital display cloth.

I just frankly don’t think a draft has any utility. If you want to have national service, because those damn young people are enjoying themselves waaaaay too much and need to clean toilets for a couple years, then come out and say so. Heck I’d agree with you.

Comment by ed — 3/2/2005 @ 12:07 pm

Actually, the most effective way to raise a large surge force is to trade on something America can confer cost-free and which is highly sought after in many areas of the world - U.S. citizenship - by creating an American version of the Foreign Legion. Offer 4 - 6-year enlistments at wages that get more comparable to what citizen enlistees get the longer the term of service. Part of the pay could go to families in the country of origin during the term of enlistment. At the end of that time, the recruit is an American and so is his family with full rights to live and work here. Re-upping into the regular U.S. military could be denied or allowed as manpower needs dictate after the initial enlistment term. Those killed get posthumous citizenship for themselves and full citizenship for their families, plus immigration rights, plus full military survivor benefits. On this model, we could raise and train and deploy an extra million men in two years at an affordable cost.

Comment by Dick Eagleson — 3/2/2005 @ 12:14 pm

The idea of a draft being something that would HELP is just plain wrong. I’m a MSgt in the USAF, and I can tell you that having a bunch of unwilling, unmotivated non-volunteers counting down a “sentence” would do much more damage than good. More of us who WANT to do this would have to spend more of our time trying to make the unwilling do their jobs than the increase in manpower would increase our capability. Congress is the culprit. The services have not exhausted the pool of recruits; we are turning people away, and the Navy and the Air Force are both currently forcing approximately 15,000 people each to separate involuntarily to bring our end strength in line with Congressionally mandated caps. A lack of volunteers is not the problem. The problem is that Congress is not willing to pay what they need to to ensure national defense. They’ve been piggy-backing on the Guard and Reserve, but the military’s ability to tap into them at this level will expire in the next couple of years. What is needed isn’t a draft, it’s for Congress to authorize a budget with enough money to allow all of those who want to volunteer, and those currently serving who want to continue, to do so. That would expand our capability, and not waste our time by turning significant numbers of us into babysitters monitoring short-term personnel without motivation. It’s much more effective to allow those who wish to serve to join/stay, and then we can concentrate on our mission and leadership and not on trying to corral the unwilling. That’s my two cents.

Comment by Cletus — 3/2/2005 @ 12:15 pm

Your reference to Rep Rangel’s HR-163 in the last Congress reminded me that apparently nobody ever read the bill. Please go to thomas.loc.gov and read the actual bill. It has 4 references to the “active and reverse components” of the military. Yes, that is not reserve, but rather reverse (sounds French). It was not a typo, it happened 4 times; perhaps a “cut and paste” error. The “twin” in the Senate S89 had “reserve” so there actually was no threat of the draft returning without revising Rep. Rangel’s bill.

Comment by J_Crater — 3/2/2005 @ 12:37 pm

There’s an argument I’d eventually make about the unfree nature of a draft in a free society, and why is it that only the youngsters get taxed like this, but that’s for another time, I think. There’s another issue raised in this debate I’d like to address.

The structure of the current military doesn’t support the current roles and missions of exercising American power. Changing this structure may provide more benefit than simply imposing some form of national service.

Some of DoD actual roles and mission cross department lines–things like the tsunami response, security support, infrastructure support–along the lines of what Tom Barnett calls the “SysAdmin” force. The older National Guard folks with real life experience are very useful because they have a different skill set than what DoD gives them–but DoD doesn’t have a way to track, nourish, and effectively utilize those skills. Build your SysAdmin (from not just DoD but USAID, Treasury, USCG, et cetera) and you have more effective use of people assets for the nation.

Some of the skill sets needed don’t require a nineteen year old kid. DOPMA forces a twenty year retirement and an up-or-out system. Non-OPPMS XXI services still have a single pyramid for officer advancement (everyone should plan to be the CNO, so no Foreign Area officer is actually used as such, and if you’re done in your unrestricted line community you’re done in the service despite your other useful skills). DOPMA reform would cause benefits that would relieve some of the personnel strain.

The timeframe available for people to be in the service drives good people out in fallow times and forgets that they’re needed later.